ACUS11 KWNS 010422
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010421
OKZ000-TXZ000-010615-

Mesoscale Discussion 2343
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 010421Z - 010615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over north-central TX will
track north-northeastward into southern OK. Increasing shear
profiles could lead to a brief tornado or two. The overall threat
appears limited, and a watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is currently affecting
Wise/Montague counties of north-central TX. The VAD profile at FWS
has shown recent acceleration of low-level winds, with 1km AGL winds
over 40 knots and 0-1km SRH over 300 m2/s2. Recent radar trends
have shown a few weak low/mid-level circulations in the cluster of
storms, evidence of the enhanced shear profiles. Given the influx
of moist and marginally unstable air (dewpoints in the low 70s and
MLCAPE ~800 J/kg), there is some potential for a brief tornado or
two or locally damaging winds in this cluster for the next couple of
hours. Given relatively low confidence and the small area of
concern, a watch is not currently anticipated.

..Hart.. 10/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4AjDRqIsjQAVyiyv3VPaAeLU_U-LQumBXFCU75lcafvEAwzSHC8eF8yPrQgBefgCeBUiA2p2NkN7LPFAQrmtqTH4gRs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33489792 34169735 35029680 35029627 34709608 33799668
33459727 33229786 33349801 33489792

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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