ACUS11 KWNS 010102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010102
OKZ000-TXZ000-010400-

Mesoscale Discussion 2342
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...northwest Texas into western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 010102Z - 010400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage, and a few
strong to locally severe gusts cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently moving into the eastern TX
Panhandle and South Plains, with increasing storm development both
along and ahead of it. The air mass is marginally unstable, with
MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and high precipitable water over 2.00".

Deep-layer wind fields are mostly parallel to the front and out of
the southwest, which is not favorable for supercells. However, this
could favor northeastward-moving storms/clusters with gusty winds.
Hobart OK recently measured a gust of 40 mph, and other stations
east of Lubbock indicating 45-50 mph.

Low-level shear remains marginally favorable for rotation, with 0-1
SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 over OK and northern TX. Storms trends will
continue to be monitored for any uptick in severe potential this
evening, but a watch is not currently anticipated.

..Jewell/Hart.. 10/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6z4jFJju3ll8Wczh9vmpiLr1IOzWhlzD758_yaBOFEmSKVDnvh1MvoPcEyyLvGQM-_ZpfF-4quDFXUJ9tKXTRdjA8gE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 32810109 34150068 34660040 35489998 35779973 35979927
35999885 35889844 35679811 35319795 35099792 34719805
34089845 33629895 33479930 33120029 32830092 32810109

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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