1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2339

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 20:56:40 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 302056
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302056
    OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-302300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2339
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0356 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

    Areas affected...northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas
    Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 302056Z - 302300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few low topped storms may produce instances of
    marginally severe hail and strong to sever wind this
    afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...Cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing forcing
    for ascent with the trough behind the surface low across New Mexico
    is leading to gradual destabilization and increase in thunderstorm
    activity across northeastern New Mexico. Moisture is somewhat
    limited to the west across New Mexico, with low to mid 50s dew
    points, improving with eastward extent into the OK/TX panhandles
    with around 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE. This fairly marginal instability
    will be sufficient, given strong deep layer shear, for a few
    low-topped storms/transient supercells capable of marginally severe
    hail and strong to severe wind. This will shift eastward into the
    panhandles with time this evening. Overall, this potential looks to
    remain fairly isolated and watch issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Thornton/Mosier.. 09/30/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9n5papk2AbPVZpWIVJ88TqXIDD6XJiUPJVuZLCaUS_ynar6LrH_Gn4k6rcUzyvE-Wsttw7D3A5bwRiWUQP4yfQVqM9U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35970449 36350440 37240294 37530185 37430122 37050085
    36690069 36350072 36130093 35600233 35320339 35310404
    35970449

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 21:02:28 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 302101
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302101 COR
    OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-302300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2339
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0401 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

    Areas affected...northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas
    Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 302101Z - 302300Z

    CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY TEXT

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few low topped storms may produce instances of
    marginally severe hail and strong to severe wind this
    afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...Cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing forcing
    for ascent with the trough behind the surface low across New Mexico
    is leading to gradual destabilization and increase in thunderstorm
    activity across northeastern New Mexico. Moisture is somewhat
    limited to the west across New Mexico, with low to mid 50s dew
    points, improving with eastward extent into the OK/TX panhandles
    with around 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE. This fairly marginal instability
    will be sufficient, given strong deep layer shear, for a few
    low-topped storms/transient supercells capable of marginally severe
    hail and strong to severe wind. This will shift eastward into the
    panhandles with time this evening. Overall, this potential looks to
    remain fairly isolated and watch issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Thornton/Mosier.. 09/30/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!586KM1ou5KZnQoya9_qOu4Xy8Dqnq6NY0w-uvvRAsbAr2tRlOcHePCmZUl9t3zkbDW_JExRb_tjuXlV6YaajCyTJdRQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35970449 36350440 37240294 37530185 37430122 37050085
    36690069 36350072 36130093 35600233 35320339 35310404
    35970449

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)