ACUS11 KWNS 292326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292326
TXZ000-NMZ000-300130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains into far east-central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292326Z - 300130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional mini supercells may continue to pose a risk of
a brief/weak tornado for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Cellular convection continues to evolve along the
northern periphery of low-level warm advection focused across parts
of the TX Panhandle west-southwestward into far east-central NM.
While buoyancy in this corridor is weak, a moist environment (upper
60s dewpoints) and a small clockwise-curved hodograph (sampled by
the AMA VWP) could continue to support occasional mini supercell
structures -- similar to what occurred approximately 40 miles east
of Amarillo, TX during the last hour. Any brief/weak tornado risk
should generally be associated with favorable/low-predictability
cell interactions in this corridor for the next few hours, and
overall confidence in this scenario remains low.

..Weinman/Hart.. 09/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_gET9xtnEo0sILLNuyI9GPAcS2mYmi2bdRMwOAZBRi42l2knidXC6pg3G35Qb_2dJbDxFno6xqe1F5IYMyqoNql9iek$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34930075 33970309 33980362 34120386 34330396 34540392
34980325 35810122 35900053 35740028 35450019 35130031
34930075

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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