ACUS11 KWNS 292309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292309
TXZ000-NMZ000-300145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...southeast New Mexico into parts of western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292309Z - 300145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage and intensity over the
next few hours. At least isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado
will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A midlevel disturbance ahead of the primary upper low
is now moving into NM and far western TX. Widespread precipitation
and embedded thunderstorms currently extend from Hudspeth County north/northeastward toward the Clovis area.

East of this ongoing activity, MLCAPE is generally in the 1000-1500
J/kg range, owing to a moisture rich air mass with mid to upper 60s
F dewpoints. Area VWPs indicate around 20 kt 850 mb winds out of the
southeast currently, but these winds are forecast to increase
rapidly after 00Z, possibly reaching 50 kt between 03-06Z. This will
both increase low-level shear, and storm relative inflow. Deep-layer
shear over 40 kt may also support a degree of organization.

Given the influx of low-level theta-e into the region, storms,
perhaps evolving into a north-south line, are expected. Isolated
damaging winds cannot be ruled out with mainly wet downbursts, but
the high RH boundary layer combined with increasing shear could just
as well result in QLCS structures, with brief tornado risk. Storm
evolution will continue to be monitored throughout the evening.

..Jewell/Hart.. 09/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9eRAMhqME5_gDSa3-pZVhT29d3C-1zRE9vdc3L-4X_AuWyq-jVh5qZSXACr93MYfjLKMGyc9QFOD4NQIehKGcooRecI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31270413 32350472 32650499 32920529 33180489 33750445
33890420 33860304 33780249 33780249 33560222 32920222
32370231 32000257 31660296 31300347 31270413

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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