ACUS11 KWNS 061904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061904
FLZ000-062100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Areas affected...west-central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061904Z - 062100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for a brief tornado/waterspout will increase in
the short term across the west-central Florida coast.

DISCUSSION...A few transient supercells have been noted over the
eastern Gulf offshore from the west-central FL coast. Recently, a
more persistent and stronger rotation signature has been noted with
a small supercell west of Tampa Bay. This cell is near the
differential heating zone/cold front where low-level instability in
stronger and low-level SRH is maximized near and north of the
boundary. This cell, and others developing offshore may shift closer
to shore over the next 1-2 hours. As this occurs, a risk for a brief tornado/waterspout moving onshore will be possible. The risk will
rapidly decrease inland from the immediate coast. Given the
generally modest environmental parameter space and very small and
focused risk area, a watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Smith.. 10/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_yRB1eqFnwopArAYN_AfNd4C5HJ5rmTh9HyGBk3nTkXQUSXSQaRwIDcUstp3EtXPbM6_AIgRhsO1wD5R1MnVc1ebxoA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON 28128331 28218317 28288300 28288287 28188269 27768247
27598248 27508249 27358263 27298277 27388301 27668317
28058333 28128331

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH


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