ACUS11 KWNS 260321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260320
TXZ000-OKZ000-260415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of extreme southwestern Oklahoma into
northwestern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 260320Z - 260415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple more severe gusts cannot be ruled out over the
next hour or so. However, the severe threat appears to be
diminishing and this trend should continue through tonight. A
downstream WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS with a history of numerous
measured severe gusts appears to have progressed through the
majority of its lifecycle, and is showing gradual weakening trends.
A rapidly propagating cold pool is still evident, so until the
boundary layer can meaningfully decouple further, a couple of 50+ kt
gusts still cannot be ruled out. Still, the decaying MCS is also
progressing toward a lesser sheared/buoyant airmass, so the
weakening severe trend should continue. A downstream Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!693OZoLAzPAuEaGBoQHajFaxIwIoaUU-GBzF3jSAfx4xf4wFR4K0CCMQbLiNOUYWjc9JHSjd9tEBB3p9H-NOjKuWJS0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34570131 35000099 35080014 34719937 34309903 33759893
33369933 33320003 33540057 34130107 34570131

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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