ACUS11 KWNS 252157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252157
OKZ000-TXZ000-252300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of far southwestern Oklahoma into
northwestern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 252157Z - 252300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few of the stronger storms may continue to produce
severe hail and perhaps severe gusts, especially if storms can
progress further south into a deeper/dry airmass. Trends are being
monitored closely for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster continues to propagate
southward, with a history of producing measured hail over 1 inch in
diameter, with MRMS MESH indicating up to 2 inch diameter hail
potentially falling. As these storms continue to propagate farther
south, they will encounter an even drier/deeper boundary layer,
which may foster enough evaporative cooling to generate a few severe
gusts via dry microbursts. It is unclear how far south storms will
progress given increasingly weaker downstream deep-layer shear and
overall drier air. Convective trends will continue to be monitored
for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-w0QfoPulpie8I40XNn6m2oBqK-cnYzNRTLE1bFP0QQ26ZPkyiWBsrVgB-PBjLH2tC8bVhYDeSxwT5Jw9JQqjJ4oK-k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33690050 34890052 35290038 35500018 35520011 35359976
34389921 33919898 33369923 33249949 33270011 33690050

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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