ACUS11 KWNS 251903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251903
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-252100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Areas affected...far southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico...far
southwest Kansas...western and central parts of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 251903Z - 252100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind
gusts up to 70-80 mph is expected to increase over western parts of
the discussion area by mid to late afternoon. A severe thunderstorm
watch is likely by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...In the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
weak background forcing for ascent, thunderstorms are gradually
increasing over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent Raton
Mesa. Latest HRRR and RRFS time-lagged ensemble guidance indicates a
subsequent eastward movement of the developing storms toward the OK
and TX Panhandle between 21Z-23Z. While overall CAPE will remain
somewhat marginal (750-1000 J/kg), the presence of lapse rates
greater than 8-8.5 C/km and effective bulk shear of around 25 kt
will support some organization of the high-based storms, which are
rooted atop a hot, well-mixed boundary layer. Latest CAM data remain
in good agreement in depicting storm clustering by early to mid
evening along a strengthening cold pool. Initially isolated
occurrences of severe winds may become more numerous at that time
along with an increased potential for gusts up to 70-80 mph.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5iL07D_h7nH6_PbDh6MHymqliBrV0TPDlQII5DHS0B5AZ7lyQt_lMA9IgF-T7_5TrzrNdBqU7sbQvFCeHeYiP5_G56Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36020397 36630388 36920365 37140304 37180226 37140181
36660113 35940080 35120081 34690101 34570153 34970260
35230327 35570378 36020397

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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