ACUS11 KWNS 250450
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250449
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-250615-

Mesoscale Discussion 2124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Northeast SD into a small part of southeast ND and west-central MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625...

Valid 250449Z - 250615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue into the early
morning hours, before an eventual weakening trend.

DISCUSSION...An isolated elevated supercell has recently intensified
to the west-northwest of Aberdeen. In the short term, MUCAPE of
around 2000 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to
support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts with this cell.
To the east, a longer-lived storm cluster is moving across northeast
SD. While this cluster has shown some signs of weakening, localized strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as this cluster approaches
the SD/ND/MN border region.

With time, decreasing MUCAPE and increasing CINH with eastward
extent should tend to result in a general weakening trend overnight,
though localized hail and gusty winds may continue until convection
subsides.

..Dean.. 08/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-fXM5opYswICFfiGsrY7-lrp1TSAx7Gg9-CbLvK9-bTAHJpPJ45hAPvmTcKTDB8SohRqTAHjlv7YWNUAfPKR1K2w_C0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 45709897 45539797 45809760 46139728 46169662 45999630
45729629 45499649 45149699 45089766 45169874 45299920
45709897

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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