ACUS11 KWNS 241936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241936
COZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-242130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2116
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Far southeast Wyoming into the Colorado Front Range
and far northern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241936Z - 242130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms moving off the higher terrain of
southeast Wyoming, central Colorado, and far north/northeast New
Mexico will pose a risk of severe winds through early evening. Watch
issuance is not expected given very limited buoyancy.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows steady cumulus
development along the CO Front Range within a weak upslope flow
regime as well as across southeast WY in proximity to a weak
low/mid-level MCV. Recent ACARs soundings from Denver, CO, along
with the KFTG VWP, sampled 15-20 knot westerly flow within the
CAPE-bearing layer that should promote eastward translation of
convection off of the higher terrain through late afternoon. These
soundings also sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions with LCLs
just under 3 km. Although the very dry low-level conditions are
limiting overall buoyancy magnitudes (SBCAPE is generally estimated
to be around 250-500 J/kg per mesoanalysis and representative
forecast soundings), they are highly favorable for intense
downbursts capable of producing swaths of severe winds. This idea is
reflected by a collection of recent CAM solutions, which generally
depict sporadic swaths of 60-75 mph gusts as convection slowly
intensifies and spreads east over the next few hours. The very
limited CAPE and modest kinematic environment should modulate
convective intensity and longevity (and preclude the need for a
watch), and convection should steadily weaken in tandem with
nocturnal cooling later this evening.

..Moore/Smith.. 08/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-3Ew19UCBC54D4NLch4yjf37DkAmecxuUdwos_Hznj68t2r-PXWUtqEZshMbP0lZYlqwDCXh3e9xq4XASo2LoZzNN3o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37030490 38920488 40250551 40910551 41380531 41580487
41630430 41510394 41220368 40820364 39220349 36960379
36680391 36480418 36470457 36600481 37030490

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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