ACUS11 KWNS 241903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241903
WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-242100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Great Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241903Z - 242100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely-scattered thunderstorms are expected to
overspread much of the northern Great Basin through early evening.
The more intense thunderstorms will be capable of severe downburst
winds. However, the overall threat should remain transient/isolated
enough to preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, GOES imagery has shown a steady
uptick in coverage and depth of convective cumulus across the
central and northern Great Basin. This comes as temperatures warm
into the mid 80s to low 90s and lingering inhibition is eroded.
Based on recent surface observations and the recent 18z LKN
sounding, MLCAPE values generally between 250-500 J/kg are likely
overspreading much of the region, and low-level lapse rates are
approaching dry adiabatic with LCLs estimated to be near 2 to 2.5
km. Although buoyancy magnitudes are generally fairly modest, the
dry and deeply-mixed boundary layer is favorable for accelerating
downdrafts - especially with the deeper convective cores that can be
influenced by 30-35 knot mid-level flow above 6 km as sampled by the
LKN sounding (which may promote some degree of storm longevity and organization). In general, thunderstorm coverage and longevity is
expected to remain fairly limited given weak large-scale forcing for
ascent, modest buoyancy, and somewhat weak deep-layer wind shear,
but latest CAM ensemble guidance suggests gusts up to 60-75 mph will
be possible with the more intense downbursts.

..Moore/Smith.. 08/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_SDLCmQPsCglgML5ujgHCXPwlHvtF0zVjt1-QbAiHPT_dgMBJmkZXVYnUul5xaHeTZqzX5P1mXUlHc9P9sP3-nDy3bk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON 40630834 40500897 40381024 39741131 38961216 38821264
38911328 39281405 40141461 40521545 40701599 41111617
42651593 43031566 43351522 43511471 43681382 43930885
43890833 43650787 43030756 42150747 40990791 40630834

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)