ACUS11 KWNS 272254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272254=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-280100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0880
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Areas affected...West Virginia into central and southern parts of
Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247...

Valid 272254Z - 280100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts remain most likely across
portions of central and southern Virginia over the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...As of 22:45 UTC a broken band of strong to severe
storms was ongoing from northeast of Roanoke to west of Richmond,
with a storm motion of 282/38 kt. Latest surface analysis and
visible satellite indicate a corridor of less-dense cloud cover to
the south of the ongoing storms, where temperatures remain in the
low/mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Resultant
MLCAPE is estimated in the 1000-1500 J/kg range within that corridor
with relatively steep low-level lapse rates. Area VWPs indicate
westerly winds above 1 km AGL with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear,
which will continue to support some storm organization for the next
couple of hours with the primary hazard being locally damaging wind
gusts.

Cooling boundary-layer temperatures and a corresponding increase in
air mass stability are expected to lead to an increasingly sporadic
severe threat by 01z.

..Mead.. 05/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9M8kwKRiJyCMRLadD5pueYvWY2FEo2_EfXwNiQGxZ_fJanr_VKImW4bOX9u-495I2CLRy1qSh= BZoqkjt6RQcT3TO9c4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON 36538052 37248091 37268172 37708227 38348270 38928276
39248252 39248171 39218081 38917955 38687880 38237835
38017838 37797834 37657782 37537723 37317642 37137598
36927550 36617555 36487699 36538052=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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