ACUS11 KWNS 270317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270317=20
TXZ000-270445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0870
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Areas affected...portions of south-central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...

Valid 270317Z - 270445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts (and potentially a
significant gust or two), isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado
or two continues across WW245.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCS remains ongoing across portions of south-central Texas as of 0300 UTC, with several reports of
severe/damaging wind gusts noted over the past 1-2 hours, including
measured 63 and 79 mph wind gusts. Brief embedded circulations have
also been observed via latest EWX radar imagery in the San Antonio
metro vicinity within the past 15-30 minutes. The downstream
environment remains moderately unstable, with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Coupled with effective shear of 30-35 kts, continued maintenance of
this system and potential for severe wind gusts (and potentially a
significant gust or two) appears likely for at least another 1-2
hours. The EWX VAD also sampled approximately 100 m2/s2 0-500 m SRH
just ahead of the convective line, which will promote the potential
for a brief embedded tornado or two.

Latest high-res guidance continues to suggest that a cluster of weak thunderstorms currently noted in Coahuila, Mexico, will evolve
eastward and potentially intensify over the next few hours, before
advancing into South Texas, perhaps as another cluster/linear MCS.
This would bring additional potential for severe wind gusts,
isolated large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado or two to portions
of WW245.

..Chalmers.. 05/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9xs3ejI87pkNOE2SA0i9FXE9R_SCp1OH2JmLNUs6R3kOMCJUysSfVGVMl8h1uPKSSbsPO5nvq= LwMtawt1uLyqQqN73g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29269861 29429872 29689885 29799870 29889814 29869746
29669696 29329674 28919676 28469691 27939752 27829827
27869909 28089927 28349917 28689880 28969860 29119855
29269861=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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