AWUS01 KWNH 262047
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-270230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0064
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
446 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Areas affected...Northern Ohio...Western & Central PA... Southwest
NY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262045Z - 270230Z

SUMMARY...Saturated upper-layer soils/low FFG may be locally
exceeded given potential for quick burst thunderstorms capable of
.5-.75"/hr rates and localized totals of 1.5-2", especially
in/near corridor or two of repeating cells.

DISCUSSION...A strong 150-180kt 250mb zonal jet is streaking
across the northern Great Lakes into southern Quebec with a subtle
but sufficiently diffluent right exit region across the Lower
Great Lakes this afternoon. In response, strong southwesterly
warm-air advection regime is drawing higher moisture and slightly
above normal higher theta-E air across the northern Ohio Valley
into the Allegheny Plateau. Low level flow is solid per VWP with
35-45kts of 925-850mb flow from the southwest with sufficient
veering through 700-500mb to allow for a fairly unidirectional
steering flow, with allowable for upstream redeveloping cells to
potentially repeat across the area of concern late this afternoon
into evening.=20

At the surface a well defined front extends from the main surface
low in SE IA across the southern LP of Michigan where secondary
weaker wave exists, likely responding to the mid-level
shortwave/diffluence pattern aloft. Surface moisture convergence
in proximity to the surface front is further enhanced by cooler
Lake Breeze and sharper low level temperature gradient along the
southern coasts. This isentropic boundary in the low level flow
regime will support enhanced moisture convergence at the
northwestern nose of the mid-level instability pool upstream over
IL/IN/NW OH. Available moisture is slightly above average with
total Pwat values AoA 1.25", though the bulk is below 700mb and
any thunderstorm development will help to load in the lower
profiles providing some increased rainfall potential. Forward
propagation will be very fast limiting overall duration, but
Hi-Res CAMs include recent WoFS runs suggest isolated but broader
updrafts capable of the very quick bursts of .5-.75" in 15-30 minutes...particularly further west and deeper into the more
unstable (1500+ J/kg MUCAPE), higher moisture.=20

However, the hydrological ground conditions are very sensitive as
green-up is just about to start. FFG values are below average
with hourly values about 1" reducing to .5-.75" across northern PA
into S central PA. NASA SPoRT LIS products show 0-40cm saturation
values over 60% increasing to over 80% where the lowest FFG value
are; so even less vertically intense showers/thunderstorms capable
of .25-.5"/hr rates downstream into NY/Central PA are likely to
shed nearly all rain toward runoff. The overall magnitudes and
coverage are likely to be limited in scope and lower end, but
still pose a possible incident or two of flash flooding. This is
also a concern across the larger urban centers of NE OH toward
Pittsburgh metro later this evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9JCEIU5YItr7GdI7YePu8DnzptH-WUp77K6dlDwxPSN7BGp-1c-UvyeeyqpzQ03SeznQ= 4fb5sFTjjRsN87RHTbZVBP8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42667650 42057570 41177590 40477698 40127924=20
40008191 39968419 40858437 41558200 42068053=20
42287976 42627812=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 310826
FFGMPD
NYZ000-311425-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0065
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Western and Central New York

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310825Z - 311425Z

SUMMARY...An broken and fairly organized band of heavy showers and thunderstorms will move into western and central New York going
through the morning hours. Locally heavy rainfall rates and some
potential cell-training concerns will couple with moist antecedent
conditions and areas of melting snow to foster a threat for
localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar mosaics and GOES-E infrared
satellite imagery indicate that previously scattered convection
over southern Ontario and Lower Michigan has congealed into a
broken, linear band of semi-organized convection. Cloud tops have
cooled significantly, denoting vigorous, sustained updrafts and
thus a trend toward heavier rainfall rates.

This activity is being driven by multiple upstream waves of low
pressure over Lower Michigan that are transiting a stalled surface
boundary draped across the Lower Great Lakes. Out ahead of these
surface waves, the kinematic and thermodynamic environment is
favorable for heavy, and locally training areas of convection
which should enter western New York over the next couple of hours.
A robust 50+ kt west-southwesterly low-level jet is nosing
directly into the region, and this is generating intense speed
convergence and enhanced warm air advection. The resultant
isentropic ascent and forcing along the front coupled with the
nose of modest instability with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg
should allow for the upstream convective mass to advance east
across western and eventually parts of central New York going
through the morning hours.

Rainfall rates are expected to climb into the 0.50" to 1.0"/hr
range which is supported by the 00Z HREF guidance. Given the
cell-training concerns, some rainfall totals this morning may
reach 1.5 to 3.0 inches. The HREF guidance shows the highest
probabilities of this generally near the Lake Ontario shoreline
and the I-90 corridor.

NASA SPoRT soil moisture and USGS streamflow data suggests an
increasingly moist and sensitive environment that will be
conducive for this morning's rainfall leading to an increase in
runoff concerns. Some snowmelt over the Tug Hill Plateau region is
ongoing and will further contribute to the risk. Thus, the threat
for at least localized areas of flash flooding will exist which
will include the highly urbanized I-90 corridor (Buffalo to
Syracuse) and some of the adjacent steeper terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8AHCzXz7s8TCfOg5ZP_VnIr4GREdIeEiVWfpL-qrMuZ5n0hODg8DcruXkoSt3K8v-wao= 1Z5e0VivG1oCnPGwt5-e5gw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44027576 43927446 43487388 42797394 42387468=20
42307618 42467812 42797920 43377915 43497815=20
43557751 43597685=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 311733
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-312330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0066
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...West-Central New York...Northern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311730Z - 312330Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms along a stationary front will
support additional instances of flash flooding this afternoon as
they overlap with moist antecedent soil conditions in west-central
New York and northern Pennsylvania.

Discussion...Airmass recovery is underway across portions of
west-central New York and northern Pennsylvania as remnant heavy
showers and thunderstorms from this morning depart the area ahead
of a weak shortwave. Within the first round of storms, periodic
cell-training led to an estimated 1-3" of rainfall near the Tug
Hill Plateau per recent MRMS and NYS Mesonet data, which led to at
least one report of flooding near Phelps, New York earlier this
morning.

While the first round exits, elevated thunderstorms are
approaching upstream from the Midwest and Ontario as a 40 kt low
level jet interacts with a shortwave and right entrance region
ascent amid widespread 7-8 degree mid-level lapse rates. Over the
next 3-4 hours, the RAP suggests this forcing will lift into the
Northeast and support an environment characterized by 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear.

Accordingly, CAMS are in good agreement for upstream storms to
intensify and train with new development expected over western New
York and northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon, even if they are
too slow with the activity in the Ohio Valley. As these training
storms eclipse 1-1.5"/hr rainfall rates at peak intensity this
afternoon, additional instances of flash flooding are possible
owing to the low FFG values over portions of west-central New York
and northern Pennsylvania -- as low as 0.25-0.5"/hr in places.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5EJ-CgQX9tgN6nfLF0Fa6tiHXcmuxFoMcHFultO3zE69V3JEza4xWbKeQtuTn9gKjaR6= KwIuCGdxbVLgYyQfTr9zw60$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...CLE...CTP...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44307567 44047418 43257383 42387405 41997487=20
41857593 41787794 41977970 42797992 43527915=20
43647722=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 312248
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-010300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0067
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Indiana and Northern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312247Z - 010300Z

SUMMARY...A line of training showers and thunderstorms could cause
localized flash flooding across northeastern Indiana and northern
Ohio.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms, demarcated by a pair of segments of
much more intense convection, has set up across northern Indiana
and Ohio this afternoon. The initial segment of storms is
weakening across far northeast Ohio and far western PA. The back
segment of storms is closing in on Ft. Wayne, IN. In between, some
weaker showers and storms have set up in an east-west line, with
the storms also tracking east, resulting in training. The stronger
storms in the back segment over Indiana have a history of
producing rainfall rates to 1.5 inches per hour.

Most high-resolution model guidance, while behind where the storms
actually are by about 2 hours, still suggest that the back segment
in Indiana will "fill-in" as it moves east, resulting in an
east-west oriented cluster of more intense convection where
individual cells embedded within the cluster train over the same
areas. PWATs are over 1.25 inches into the Ohio Valley, and CAPE
values are between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg into central Illinois and
Indiana. Combined with sufficient forcing along the front, the
setup suggests that the storms will have no trouble keeping storms
intense and capable of heavy rainfall through the late afternoon.
Flash flood guidance of 1.5-2 inches in 3-hours over most of
northern Ohio should be exceeded given the 1.5+ in/hr rates
already seen with the storms over Indiana, especially as the area
in between the segments of storms fills in over the next couple
hours or so.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9katCsrILRBviETCD9baUTBW-entNocx3aUDfVX0zPtQ1-_gWeFWjQKpZxCjtuj3LBoR= n5aJas2ZuX-LnVZ95p0DOIY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41428566 41388486 41388354 41338219 40998116=20
40188133 39788205 39858257 40018339 40278406=20
40528477 40908555=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 312334
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-010500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
733 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Western New York and Northwestern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 312332Z - 010500Z

SUMMARY...Additional convection moving into western Pennsylvania
and New York will likely cause more flash flooding into the
evening as additional line segments of storms move over previously
hard-hit and low FFG areas.

DISCUSSION... A series of line segments of showers and
thunderstorms are quickly moving eastward out of Ohio and the
Ontario Peninsula towards western New York and Pennsylvania. Very
low FFGs are in place across much of western New York from ongoing
or recently ended storms. As the next round of storms approaches,
additional rainfall will be moving over areas with ongoing
flooding, or in the case of portions of western Pennsylvania, over
areas with low FFGs such that new flooding is likely as the storms
continue to produce occasional rainfall rates exceeding 1" per
hour. Diminishing daylight will help to gradually lower the
instability and potential rainfall rates, however, even somewhat
lighter rainfall under an inch per hour, with sufficient duration,
will cause flash flooding.

As the storms move across New York and Pennsylvania, they remain
likely to align in a roughly west-to-east line, allowing training
from multiple heavier rain cells to move over the same areas.
Thus, while rainfall rates may decline with time, training over
low FFG areas should still result in some flooding. This is in
large part due to a 40-50 kt LLJ tracking WNW across the region,
supplying moisture and instability to the warm environment ahead
of the front, but at an angle sufficiently parallel to the front
to support multiple rounds of training thunderstorms.

Late this evening, all the activity is expected to sink south
across Pennsylvania and weaken with time as nocturnal, more stable
air builds, thus ending the rain threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5e9nYAagNkdaLmiARDmb5B-J7MLVifvbNFdGo3hkmYXuJtkjw9XZ1oWUyCPemCjLUfDu= WEZ4i5EVs1mqfDGjSL66QBI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43427851 43347775 43287753 43307704 43307683=20
43087627 42977548 42837468 42627382 41957389=20
41857413 41547507 41197581 40797663 40507758=20
40447868 40357938 40508016 41008064 41948069=20
42547933 42847890 43047908 43307904=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 010256
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-010855-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Indiana...Ohio...Western
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010255Z - 010855Z

SUMMARY...Organized clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue to track across the Ohio Valley overnight. Training
of convective cells will lead to additional localized rainfall
amounts of 2 to 3 inches. Given wet antecedent conditions,
isolated to scattered flash flooding is likely, particularly in
urban areas and locations that have seen prior rainfall.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics indicate a broad, active
corridor of convection extending from central Indiana through Ohio
and into western Pennsylvania. This activity is being driven by a
persistent 40 to 50 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet that is
maintaining strong moisture convergence and isentropic ascent over
convectively induced outflow boundaries south of a slow-moving and
largely stalled synoptic front.

While absolute instability and moisture are modest, the highly
favorable kinematics and the continuous convective regeneration
along these boundaries are resulting in localized pockets of
cell-training. Current MRMS instantaneous rainfall rates are
generally 0.50 to 1.0 inch per hour, but are peaking as high as
1.0 to 1.5 inches per hour occasionally with the strongest and
most anchored cores.

High-resolution guidance, including the 18Z HREF and latest HRRR
runs, indicates this low-level jet will remain robust through much
of the overnight hours before gradually weakening after 09Z. As a
result, this regenerative convective threat will tend to be
sustained at least over the next several hours. In time,
additional slackening of the instability will tend to weaken the
activity and lessen the rain rates. Nevertheless, additional
localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected along the
primary training axes overnight.

Recent rainfall has left antecedent soil conditions wet to
saturated across portions of the region, promoting significantly
lower FFG thresholds. The combination of primed basins, fairly
efficient rainfall rates, and rainfall duration will lead to areas
of rapid runoff. As a result, isolated to scattered instances of
flash flooding are considered likely, with an elevated threat for
urban corridors and the sensitive terrain of western Pennsylvania.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Cqq3Qkxda1cDhhl-m2210Q2IB8-1NPKXUSotooev16O4acN3ywmZbbQOEeHSEHgNphV= lpQWRHzZa9mdWjIbBM7F6J0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41917964 41667841 41117789 40387837 40058033=20
39898267 39958431 40068543 40418605 40978622=20
41488551 41678458 41628250 41868093=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 020001
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-020600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Oklahoma & Southeast Kansas into
Central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020000Z - 020600Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms developing along a nearly stationary
frontal boundary and developing area of low pressure are training
and merging within the clusters as they track northeast. Despite
very dry antecedent soil conditions, rainfall rates to 2 inches
per hour with each strong cell will cause widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Cyclogenesis along a stationary frontal boundary is
underway across southeast Kansas this evening. A cluster of storms
have developed southwest of the low, and is quickly congealing
with other storms that have developed roughly along the
Kansas-Missouri border south of Kansas City. The storms across
Oklahoma have a history of producing rainfall rates to 2 inches
per hour. Any hail with the storms should diminish with time as
the atmosphere more fully saturates in and around the cluster of
storms. Thus, the heavy rainfall threat will increase into the
night. The low center will likely merge with a second low and
Pacific front which is back to the west (not shown). These two
features approach to each other will stall the eastward
progression of the storms over the next several hours, allowing
additional time for training convection to produce heavy rain.

Antecedent soil conditions are bone dry across all of the
highlighted area, so it may take another couple hours of heavy
rainfall across the warned area before flooding can occur. Locally
however, any areas under an extended duration of heavy rain could
see localized flash flooding occur sooner. PWATs to 1.6 inches are
being advected into the low on 30-40 kt southerly winds at 850 mb,
which will sustain the storms into the overnight as that same
low-level-jet intensifies above 50 kts once the second Pacific
front catches up to the storms.

More substantive eastward progression of the complex is expected
late tonight, after 06Z, as the Pacific front catches up to the
stationary boundary of storms and pushes everything off to the
east. This will substantially diminish the flash flooding threat
for this portion of the Plains.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67PWvjvzgF5U3nymtUVCkJZO5-yAqUJy5QknMaWNxx8umxVicCfAnM6P3mTvaFirmEm1= VPlHiKZWo96NK2E-cjjv8po$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39889203 39669129 39089118 38339159 37269250=20
36149391 35629503 35399613 35509702 35949717=20
36489724 37049714 37489664 37869625 38649564=20
39219497 39359466 39519416 39629374 39789302=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 020531
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-021029-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...far eastern Kansas, western/central/southern
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020529Z - 021029Z

Summary...Locally significant flash flooding continues -
particularly across west-central Missouri. Another 2-3 hours of
moderate to heavy rainfall are expected, potentially exacerbating
ongoing flash flooding.

Discussion...An axis of training convection has persisted along a southwest-to-northeast oriented line from just west of Columbia to
about 50 miles north of Joplin. Along this axis, persistent
rainfall has resulted in around 2-6 inches of rainfall in the past
6 hours. The rainfall is being supported by strong southerly
low-level flow (~40 knots at 850mb) impinging on a remnant outflow
boundary from earlier storms. Deep southwesterly steering flow
aloft was enabling additional convective elements to develop
initially from a slightly more buoyant airmass over southeastern
Kansas and move northeastward along this axis. Heavy rain has
resulted in numerous road closures tonight.

Additional heavy rainfall is expected across the impacted region.=20
Deep convection extends from near Joplin southwestward to the
Oklahoma/Kansas border near Bartlesville that will migrate
east-northeastward. The clearing line behind this activity is
roughly along US 75 (near a propagating MCS) and will take another
2-4 hours to clear the region. Flash flooding is expected to
continue (and perhaps worsen) through 10Z/5a central.

Farther south and east, dry antecedent conditions and the
forward-propagating nature of the Oklahoma/Kansas linear
segment/MCS should result in lower chances for flash flooding
overall. Low-water crossing and sensitive spots will have the
greatest risk of isolated flash flooding in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!96GsjcHescerhJ3lgQ1A_gnKd4VW2UJIOnsXQXRJG4FnT6XwEYGU8_Q5qKm5fK_XSf6x= XQ3WmURy7ynKUQ7yom-iMMo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39379336 39269155 37939119 36669237 36579402=20
37059514 37569530 38519466=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 021906
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...Southern WI...Eastern IA...Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021900Z - 030030Z

SUMMARY...Periods of heavy rainfall within approaching
thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding this
afternoon, potentially impacting the afternoon commute.

DISCUSSION...A narrow band of heavy rainfall north of I-80 is
making its way through eastern IA, northwest IL, and southern WI.
This focused area of mesoscale enhanced rainfall is due to strong
50-60kt 850mb winds out of the SW that are intersecting the
surface warm front as it lifts north. The Midwest is also feeling
the effects or a negatively-tilted 500mb vorticity maximum that is
crossing east of the MO River this afternoon, generating
exceptional upper-level divergence atop the atmospheric column.
The highlighted region features >1.25" PWs, values that are above
the 99th climatological percentile. Meanwhile, strong
thunderstorms have flared up along the surface cold front in
southern IA and northern MO. MUCAPE is likely to range between
500-1,000 J/kg this afternoon as the warm sector races in aloft.
These storms are progressive, but are heading northeast towards
the same section of southern WI, northern IL, and eastern IA that
are seeing MRMS radar estimated rainfall rates over 0.5"/hr. HRRR
sampled soundings show warm cloud layers as deep as 10,000ft, so
while rates may not be overly impressive, the rainfall itself
features some supportive warm-rain processes aloft.

In most cases, these areas would handle 0.5"/hr rainfall rates
fairly well. That said, 1-hr FFGs are generally between 1.0-1.5"
and with MUCAPE values gradually increasing as the warm sector
encroaches, the band of rainfall currently in progress and the
approaching storms could generate hourly rainfall rates up to
1"/hr over the next several hours. Showers and storms remain
progressive, thus limiting the areal extent and capping the
severity of the potential for flash flooding. However, any areas
that contend with both the ongoing band of heavy rain in eastern
IA, northwest IL, and southern WI that then see the more intense
storms pass through this afternoon could encounter some localized
flash flooding and ponding. Any ponding on roadways could cause
some trouble for motorists during the afternoon commute. More
heavily urbanized locations containing a larger concentration of
hydrophobic surfaces are particuarly prone to flash flooding, as
well as low-lying areas and typical spots that drain poorly.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4kI67TM1hzkNwiHmOSK6m1yN5LwLWpPS3lCNlXFC-Yg9N8M29zrJZ7LNa5kbZ4sXjl3B= DOoNLcqj2eA1r7UuMCigUkk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44098771 43658752 43058766 42608790 41848894=20
41488991 41449125 41799184 42539174 42929097=20
43488964 44088827=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031949
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-040150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes & Western PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031950Z - 040150Z

SUMMARY...Progressive but potentially training thunderstorms have
the potential to generate rainfall rates over 1.5"/hr. Locally
saturated soils could be particularly at-risk for flash flooding
this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and low-level theta-e advection has
destabilized the atmosphere from central IN all the way to western
PA with as much as 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE having become
available in the past 3 hours per RTMA. Mesoscale guidance is
showing as much as 1.5" PWs will be available over the western
half of the at-risk region while PWs range between 1.2-1.5" over
eastern OH and western PA. All PWs referenced are comfortably
above the 90th climatological percentile. Mean winds within the
850-300mb layer are running nearly parallel to a quasi-stationary
front located over northern OH and along the Chautauqua Ridge.

As differential heating along the front strengthens and convective
temperatures over the OH Valley are reached, widespread showers
and storms will develop and track WSW to ENE this afternoon and
evening. Storms tracking parallel to the front with no change in
the mean storm motion will support the potential for training and
even back-building storms this afternoon. Soils in the region have
grown increasingly saturated, particularly eastern OH and western
PA where MRMS soil moisture values are between 50-75% saturated.
12Z HREF shows low chances (10-30%) for 3-hr QPF totals surpassing
3-hr FFGs in northern OH between 21Z and 00Z this afternoon, with
similar low chance probabilities in far western PA. Eastern IN is
farther east of the better probabilistic guidance, but some recent
CAMs runs have shown some potential for 1.5"/hr rainfall rates in
developing cells.

The progressive motion of these cells should limit storm residency
times, but with redeveloping storms expected to the south and
west, training of storms containing up to 1.5"/hr rainfall rates
are possible. 1-hr FFGs for much of the area range between
1.0-1.5" as well, making it possible for areas of flash flooding
to occur this afternoon. Low-lying and poor drainage areas are
at-risk, including more urbanized locations.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8l5tZCQ8U5jzSFpiqd3uD1sg9sw9HuwEmBUXx4_VUkwfn2SsR8DwDeLNy7zNTLlPDV96= lh7H6-9qcXBSYaN0UwToY5s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41877921 41557891 41047925 40688006 40088151=20
39928202 39508341 39318469 39408562 40318614=20
40828559 40998427 41158336 41368168 41728016=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032102
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern OK & Northern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032100Z - 040300Z

SUMMARY...Strong-to-severe thunderstorms flaring up along and
ahead of the dryline and an approaching cold front will back-build
this afternoon and produce rainfall rates up to 2"/hr. Instances
of flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar and GOES East satellite imagery show
thunderstorms erupting along the cold front over southern KS and
near the dryline from the Red River on south and west. There is no
shortage of instability as RAP mesoanalysis shows anywhere from
2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE present. PWs currently are less than
1.5" where storms are initiating. That will soon change as
southerly low-level flow sustains the ongoing 850mb theta-e
advection. Meanwhile, the cold front diving south will slow down
as southerly low-level winds intersect the boundary, allowing for
a prolonged window of low-level forced ascent into a highly
unstable environment. PWs will soon top 1.5" as the LLJ
strengthens and warm cloud layers gradually deepen as the evening
approaches.

Excellent vertical wind shear aloft (40-50 kts effective bulk
shear) and increasingly curved low-level hodographs containing as
much as 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH will support supercells at
the onset before congealing into a more organized linear cluster
of storms this evening. Where mesocyclones develop, rainfall rates
can be enhanced and exceed 2"/hr in some cases. The concern for
locally significant flash flooding is due to the slowing of the
cold front and the receding dry line as it backs up to the west.
Several hours worth of southerly flow into these frontal
boundaries combined with beneficial vertical wind profiles can
give rise to back-building thunderstorms from north TX into
central and northeast OK through this evening. 12Z HREF guidance
does show low-to-moderate chances (20-50%) for storms that are
capable of producing 6hr QPF > 6-hr FFGs through 06Z tonight. The
20Z run of the WoFS (15km neighborhood probabailities) also showed
some >50% probabilities for >2" of rainfall just north and south
of the OKC metro area through 02Z.

Soils in the Southern Plains welcome the rain given much of the
region's D1-D3 drought status. However, these kind of excessive
rainfall rates over very dry/hard soils can struggle to soak in
rainfall right away and act more as like a hydrophobic surface.
This can lead to rapid rises in water both in poor drainage areas
and near by creek beds. Any metropolitan areas with a greater
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces are also vulnerable. The
combination of excessive rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and what is
appearing to be multiple rounds of thunderstorms into this evening
favors the likelihood for flash flooding. In cases where
back-building and training occur, locally considerable instances
of flash flooding are possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6AiuvJ3eOGnAlJe23itflsM8uEAPnBo3alG2JInTg3_-1idawiIBf7s1ydK8mL7Kuvt2= 5xfQLpIeifP-eGgyqd8U1u4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36929643 36649567 35409609 33489996 33020080=20
32610173 32840212 33650126 34480022 35369909=20
36499793 36859739=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032249
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-040430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Central IA...Southeast MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032245Z - 040430Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms approaching from the southwest will
produce additional heavy rainfall over northern IA and southeast
MN that saw rainfall recently over the past 24 hours. With soils
growing increasingly saturated, localized flash flooding is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Rounds of thunderstorms continue to develop just east
of the MO River as moist southwesterly flow at low levels
intersects the 850mb front oriented from western IA on north and
east into far southeast MN. Strong low-level WAA north of the warm
front is allowing for as much as 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE over central
IA. Another round of storms on the northern periphery of the
surface low will continue to race north and east over the next few
hours in an environment that sports >1.25" PWs, which are above
the 99th climatological percentile into central IA.

Soils within the highlighted region were already coming into today
a little more saturated thanks to yesterday's rainfall. NASA
SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles in north-central IA
were above 80% saturation coming into today. MRMS shows 3-hr QPE
from just north of Des Moines on north and east have received an
additional 0.5" of rainfall (locally higher totals too). Most
hourly rainfall rates are less than 1"/hr, but as the low deepens
and WAA increases, warm cloud layers will also deepen and warm
rain processes will make for more efficient rainfall rates that
could approach 1"/hr. Latest 1hr FFGs are as low as 1"/hr in
central IA. Flash flooding is possible, particularly along and
just north of the warm front and the track of the surface low
where a better source of instability is present. Locations most
at-risk to flash flooding are poor drainage areas and spots where
soils are beginning to struggle soaking in recent rainfall.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_r_IuqUMUIjk7Ch6sdo2ZPzGX-yKrltvOs3UOyWDa5oCCDftKcQQGGNHMWCbK50e-3YC= iIzHNj7H21Uytp12tVR17xs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43809169 43159133 42369175 41029340 40949450=20
41969505 42589467 43089354 43729249=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032200
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0075
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...North Central IL...Western IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032200Z - 040400Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming along and north of a warm front
will be capable of producing up to 2"/hr rainfall rates. With
prolonged, moist southwesterly flow expected to intersect the
front for several hours, flash flooding is likely through early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar shows scattered thunderstorms having
formed along a warm front that extends from the strengthening area
of low pressure in northwest MO eastward into northern OH.
Low-level southwesterly flow is providing healthy theta-e and
moisture advection while MLCAPE along and just south of the warm
front is >2,000 J/kg. PWs are forecast to surpass 1.5" this
evening, which is above the 99th climatological percentile for
early-mid April. Meanwhile, sheared shortwave energy racing north
from the South Central U.S. will provide additional synoptic scale
lift aloft later this evening. Vertical wind profiles will favor
supercells with >40 kts of effective bulk shear and up to 200
m2/s2 of SRH. As storm form along the front, persistent inflow
into the warm front as it slowly moves north gives rise to
back-building and training storms, increasing concerns for longer
residency times for these storms.

Latest 18Z HREF shows moderate chances (40-60%) for rainfall
totals >2" in north-central IL. This is supported by the 21Z WoFS
using cumulative >2" paint balls through 03Z. There are several
CAMs members (RRFS, NSSL-MPAS, 20Z HRRR) that shows this cluster
of storms having the potential to produce localized rainfall
amounts >4" through this evening. 1-hr FFGs are generally below
1.5" for the majority of the at-risk region, and even 3-hr FFGs
are <2" (less than 1.5" on the southern periphery of the
Chicagoland area). The southern tier of Chicagoland could contend
with excessive rainfall this evening as elevated instability moves
northward and the storms lift northward with the warm front.

With concerns for training and back-building storms in an
atmospheric environment suitable to generate up to 2"/hr rainfall
rates, cases of flash flooding are likely in parts of central and
northern IL, and potentially in western IN this evening. Should
those >4" amounts on various CAMs come to fruition, locally
significant flash flooding could unfold. Poor drainage areas and
urbanized communities are most vulnerable to flash flooding this
evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Zqm5EQ8QJ4eq_dcSvuMqxde5ctbOiPbRtt4oF45VVxHWWHl6sfIkyj0o4kWhAQPiZLT= Tld5yLbJaYh2F-PYKE5BD7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41768809 41418739 40948612 40618601 40098627=20
40018747 39918909 39659073 39979130 40539086=20
40919006 41388917=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040131
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-040729-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0077
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
930 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IN...Northern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040129Z - 040729Z

SUMMARY...Additional training thunderstorms producing hourly
rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr remain possible through the overnight
hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms located along and just south of a warm
front are also forming along a narrow outflow boundary to the
south. Storms in northern OH have produced over 2" of rainfall in
some spots per MRMS QPE and one LSR southwest of Canton reporting
2 feet of water over a road. Rounds upon rounds of storms are
likely to continue from eastern IN and northern OH to as far east
as the WV Panhandle and southeast PA this evening. RAP
mesoanalysis continues to show at least 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE
available, effective bulk shear up to 30 kts, and anomalous PWs
between 1.25-1.5" at these storms disposal.

1-hr FFGs have decreased to as low as 1" in parts of northern OH
with all areas effectively below 1.5" thanks to this afternoon's
thunderstorm activity. 00Z HRRR continues to suggest the
persistent westerly 850-300mb mean layer winds aloft and low-level
winds supplying rich theta-e into the front will create a steady
diet of storms through the rest of the evening. 00Z HRRR 6-hr QPF
shows an additional 1-2" of rainfall are possible with localized
amounts over 3" possible between now and 08Z tonight. Given the
current state of ongoing flash flooding in the area, and more
excessive rainfall to come, additional flash flooding is likely.
Locally significant flash flooding is possible where another 1-2"
of rainfall occurs in areas that are already dealing with flash
flooding. Note that flooded roadways will be more difficult for
motorists to identify with the sun having now set. Motorists
should exercise caution if they must be on the roads tonight.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QCHH8OMPmGnSUAQ6cvwhTQNlISQOO_u7xsNTki7vtduQ6Yfb8xqYks-ICD21qvewlZx= D--TDlxavanM4ZMdv7ipPA4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41218275 40998150 40778103 40268116 40118298=20
40358467 40628531 40898531 41188402=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040259
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040857-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0078
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma and north Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040257Z - 040857Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue for the next few
hours along the Red River Valley, north Texas, and central/eastern
Oklahoma.

Discussion...Recent radar depicts an expanding convective complex
over central Oklahoma, with embedded supercellular structures near
Shawnee, OK. This complex has recently produced 1-2 inch rainfall
totals over Oklahoma City metro over the past hour, with moderate
to high MRMS Flash responses suggesting likely urban flash
flooding in the area. The complex was moving eastward at an
appreciable pace (around 30 knots) toward
less-sensitive/less-urban ground conditions, which may result in
flash flood potential becoming more isolated with time. However,
increasing low-level flow over eastern Oklahoma was contributing
to an increase in deep convection ahead of this complex, with
mergers likely to support continued 1-2 inch/hr rates at times for
at least the next couple of hours along and south of the I-40
corridor. Some training on the southwestern flank of this complex
could also spread flash flood potential into the Ada, OK vicinity
over the next 1-3 hours as well.

Convection was also developing upstream along a southward-moving
front through southwest Oklahoma and the Childress, TX area. The
speed of the front should limit the degree of repeating/training
convection here, and rainfall should occur over areas that have
been relatively dry. Isolated flash flooding is possible in low
spots where repeating can bump hourly totals above the 1-1.5 inch
range.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8RR8Dwgx8Nc6M0A0rRRc7lEvTSp3Pc66kG1RjhwnissW-lHQcxBIxMjkCg_OVqBeydr1= NmrwFennnqw1AwUhDLDp2w8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36359490 35139451 33999530 32909765 33140060=20
33670158 34770059 35119820 35499746 36219682=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040417
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1216 AM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Illinois, northwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040415Z - 040715Z

Summary...Training convection could persist for another couple
hours into southern suburbs of Chicago Metro.

Discussion...A persistent, SW-NE oriented band of convection has
trained along an axis very near I-55 between Joliet and Pontiac
over the past couple hours. The convection is becoming
progressively more elevated with time, but is persistent within a warm-advection regime located just above a stable boundary layer,
with ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalyses) supporting strong
updrafts. The orientation of the convection was supporting
prolonged rainfall, leading to rates in the 1-2 inch/hr range
(1-2X higher than estimated FFG in the region). Downstream
instability profiles are supportive of this band of convection
reaching southern sides of Chicago Metro and far northwestern
Indiana over the next couple hours, resulting in at least isolated
flash flood potential. Outside of this band, deepening showers
were noted across a broader portion of northern and central
Illinois that may repeat over some of the same areas in line for
heavy rain from the aforementioned band, but degree of
training/high-rain rates is uncertain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5oGpcz_H95CrQ9P7DD1e772UzfPY8quem7gDqTHIPQBUNM21ddfJCYfx4tetiuCdKC1o= 5UVg3ubnlawvUTe_1gpyKOc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41888715 41528688 40948779 40988829 41278872=20
41738828=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040420
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1219 AM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Illinois, northwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040415Z - 040715Z

Summary...Training convection could persist for another couple
hours into southern suburbs of Chicago Metro.

Discussion...A persistent, SW-NE oriented band of convection has
trained along an axis very near I-55 between Joliet and Pontiac
over the past couple hours. The convection is becoming
progressively more elevated with time, but is persistent within a warm-advection regime located just above a stable boundary layer,
with ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalyses) supporting strong
updrafts. The orientation of the convection was supporting
prolonged rainfall, leading to rates in the 1-2 inch/hr range
(1-2X higher than estimated FFG in the region). Downstream
instability profiles are supportive of this band of convection
reaching southern sides of Chicago Metro and far northwestern
Indiana over the next couple hours, resulting in at least isolated
flash flood potential. Outside of this band, deepening showers
were noted across a broader portion of northern and central
Illinois that may repeat over some of the same areas in line for
heavy rain from the aforementioned band, but degree of
training/high-rain rates is uncertain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95o1G44xhRAXek0_2DYk6pSIAZkkVhqDAI9oXcEzGf0JY7r_gN5CB_WeznGwL5J4COD_= ZWGH3d-nvcGE_myqltzA_K4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41888715 41528688 40948779 40988829 41278872=20
41738828=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041902
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-050101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TX...North-Central LA...Southern
AR...Western MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041901Z - 050101Z

Summary...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage across much of the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss
regions through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Areas with persistent training cells could get 1
inch/30 minute rainfall rates, which could result in a few
instances of flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and visible satellite imagery
are indicating a steady increase in convection developing along
and ahead of a strong cold front. Multiple broken line segments of
pre-frontal storms have developed well ahead of the main line
across much of central and northern Louisiana, and also across the
northwestern half of Mississippi. These storms are starting to
convectively train, leading to enhanced rainfall rates of 1-2
inches per hour, and in some instances an inch in under 30 minutes
where cell mergers happen. This will moisten the soils before the
main line of convection approaches with the front later this
afternoon and evening.

Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR are indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 2-4 inches through 00Z, with
much of this likely occurring within a 2-3 hour time period for
any given location. Although recent dry conditions across much of
the region is a mitigating factor, the higher rainfall rates may
be enough to result in a few instances of flooding, with a greater
potential for this across urban locations.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6TJ5Yo_BSMsrzRQZKvYUNRSR_uJFpYLZ3vmsP37NhCSEIVqSUE_Ps1NeodLAbn1FmHOR= 1J2GOMXYqyotTJXZK116pzA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MEG...
SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34009043 33878966 33038933 31229040 30609073=20
30419127 30769249 30769317 30659377 30399455=20
30019552 29779623 29599690 29809730 30049737=20
30439708 30819659 31309628 31709580 31949548=20
32179511 32539463 32809414 33029372 33239315=20
33349270 33429238 33569207 33669169 33859109=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050127
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-050500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0081
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
925 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Southern LA and South-Central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050125Z - 050500Z

Summary...Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across
much of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi through the
remainder of the evening hours, including extreme southeast Texas.
Areas with persistent training cells could get 1 inch/30 minute
rainfall rates, which could result in a few instances of flooding
through midnight.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and visible satellite imagery
are indicating widespread convection along and ahead of an
approaching cold front. There are several multi-cell clusters that
have developed ahead of the main swath of convection associated
with the cold front, and these are aligned in the general low
level SSW winds and have been training over the past few hours.
Many locations across central Louisiana and central Mississippi
have already picked up 1-2 inches of rain over the past 6 hours,
and locally higher, therefore making the soils more saturated and
susceptible to potential flooding issues.

Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR are indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 1-3 inches through 5Z, with
much of this likely occurring within a 2-3 hour time period for
any given location. This activity should generally diminish in
intensity going into the overnight hours as instability decreases.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4n9bWHs3DcmJI-CImz_pLZablPamVMzuhPYprk6cRUQCVqx1EJYLMgrvMwg8I9H8V1ET= 1swjHN2IRCxAozGJzLikTOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32978902 32908865 32708847 32308846 31608863=20
30838893 30148940 29799008 29729157 29749267=20
29929312 29999321 29999321 30389328 30679311=20
31149258 31689172 32199099 32609030 32918956=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050209
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050508-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1008 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Deep South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050208Z - 050508Z

Summary...A cluster of deep convection should eventually spread
1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates into McAllen, TX and vicinity through
04-05Z.

Discussion...Deep convection has become increasingly organized
across primary rural areas of Deep South Texas over the area. The
storms are focused along an inverted surface trough extending into
the area from northeastern Mexico, with light southeasterly
low-level flow maintaining a surface airmass characterized by 80s
F surface temps/70s F dewpoints into that axis. Storms were
becoming more organized and developing cold pools/weak
supercellular structures, which isn't surprising given directional
shear through the troposphere. Southward propagation of this
cluster should spread areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates into the
McAllen, Texas area and vicinity, where urbanized surfaces may
pose a risk of flash flooding as the cells move through.

The overall synoptic scenario supporting heavy rainfall should
change little through 05Z or so as the weak inverted trough
persists and weak mid-level waves traverse the area. The
longevity of convection along the Rio Grande is a bit uncertain
and highly dependent on the local evolution of convection in that
area, which should be relatively slow given weak wind fields aloft.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-PGiJtHrnrSTk1OIvgeZk0r5sWUOI26gjZ65SduasNkLAfkKNnkwDeGtAD4f9eftZcj= WdMnKW9T-MaPgYhBOS0pi_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26999850 26729741 25969739 26229887 26599905=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062108
FFGMPD
FLZ000-070200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 PM EDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062105Z - 070200Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage through the early evening hours across central Florida
near an approaching cold front. High rainfall rates up to 2
inches/30 minutes may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and GOES-E satellite imagery
are indicating a steady increase in slow moving thunderstorms
across inland portions of the central Florida Peninsula late this
afternoon. Several multi-cell clusters have been exhibiting signs
of back-building over the past 1-2 hours, and these are producing
outflow boundaries that will converge to generate additional slow
moving convection that may be heavier that what is currently
happening now. The environment is favorable for storms with high
rainfall rates given mixed layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg, PWs near 1.7 inches, and 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear
per the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

Recent CAM guidance through 2Z is portraying the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 3-5 inches with the most
persistent convection, and much of this is likely to fall within a
two hour time period for any given location. HREF neighborhood
exceedance probabilities of 3-hourly flash flood guidance are up
to roughly 30% between Orlando and Fort Myers, and there are some
low-end probabilities of 6-hour QPF reaching 100-year ARI for some
of these areas. Although this area is in a drought, the high
sub-hourly rainfall rates could be enough to overcome this
limitation and result in some instances of flash flooding through
10 pm local time.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_BCj-gL5y9Bht0KzO_qMa0emd3AmRjhExfsZOqRQ83_UtP26mbOpcV8kNYOWVCsm1DKi= ZcoPmWSl9HSE7FJnwRjG05M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28858171 28788116 28518087 28058066 27598059=20
27328077 27158090 26968105 26688088 26268101=20
26218148 26438174 27118228 27568238 28028244=20
28358242 28568237 28788213=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081826
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Areas affected...Treasure and Gold Coast of Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081825Z - 090025Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with a history of
rainfall rates over 2 inches/hour are impacting portions of the
Treasure and Gold Coast of Florida, with increasing concerns for
impacts over sensitive urban areas. Flash flooding is possible
where the cells are the most persistent through the afternoon and
early evening.

DISCUSSION...Persistently moist and relatively unstable low-level
easterly flow continues to focus areas of showers and some
occasional thunderstorms into the Atlantic Coast of Florida. Much
of the activity is aligned with the low-level steering flow and
has been focusing near the offshore Gulf Stream with extensions
westward into areas mainly south of Melbourne and especially areas
just north of Stuart where convection is more concentrated. More
scattered activity is situated farther south down the coast into
the I-95 urban corridor of southeast Florida.

Despite the relatively scattered nature of the coverage, with
southwesterly flow aloft (as opposed to easterly flow in the lower
levels), the extreme directional shear present across Florida is
making an environment favorable for slow-moving and training
storms. Daytime heating is also allowing for instability to
increase, currently ranging from 2,000 J/kg near Miami to near
1,500 J/kg near Melbourne based on SPC Mesoanalysis. Atmospheric
moisture also ranges from 1.7" PWAT near Miami to 1.4" near
Melbourne. Thus, the greatest threat for the heaviest rains are
further south down I-95.

Multiple days of rainfall across all of southern Florida this past
week has sufficiently saturated the soils. Thus, expect much of
any heavy rainfall today to favor increased runoff. Ultimately any
impacts and the magnitudes thereof will be dependent on where any
training cells develop relative to how urban the ground underneath
the cells is. With rates in the strongest cells later this
afternoon expected to potentially reach 3 inches/hour, localized
totals to 6 inches can't be ruled out. This in turn would result
in localized flooding. Regardless, expect that the storms that
will be capable of flash flooding to remain isolated to widely
scattered.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7reFGpJjrW38AH1Upf3utPD1RP59anTYXGOCvwwonvVJOkizU1tqghWCW4TM6SECp_jb= F2MXRT9fT1GHYMWwAo3DhII$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28028067 27988037 26947997 25957994 25598022=20
25498051 25708057 26008045 26288039 26648033=20
26938037 27298050 27528056 27828068=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091025
FFGMPD
FLZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0085
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 AM EDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...east-central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091017Z - 091500Z

Summary...Slow moving showers with possible embedded thunderstorms
are expected to focus isolated areas of heavy rain along the Space
and Treasure coasts through late morning. Localized hourly
rainfall of 2+ inches will be possible with storm totals of 2 to
4+ inches through 15Z, which may result in isolated flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 10Z showed scattered
showers between southern Brevard County and southern St. Lucie
County. 10.3 micron satellite imagery indicated cloud tops over
land were relatively warm at -20 to -35 C, with an estimated cloud
depth of 9 km AGL based on RAP analysis soundings over the region.
Easterly winds of 20-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer were oriented
perpendicular to the coast while mid-upper level flow was from the
west at a similar magnitude. This has set up favorable effective
shear profiles for organized cells although 0-8 km AGL mean layer
winds were about 5 kt or less, resulting in slow cell movement. In
addition, the alignment of showers with the low level wind has
also resulted in slow movement of heavy rain cores at times with
recent development near Vero Beach showing signs of a weak MCV
over eastern Indian River County. MRMS-derived and KVRB hourly
rainfall of 2-2.5 inches has been observed with nearly 2 inches of
rain in 32 minutes at KVRB ending 0940Z. Speed and weak
directional convergence near the surface was allowing for the
formation of quasi-transient bands of heavy rain within an
expanding pocket of MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg (06Z-10Z SPC
mesoanalyses) over the east coast of FL.

While the future existence of the weak meso-vortex near Vero Beach
is unknown, convergence in the surface to near-surface layer is
expected to continue a threat for slow moving showers with
embedded thunderstorms from Brevard County down to St. Lucie
County over the next 3-5 hours. However, the concentration of
heavy rain is expected to remain limited in spatial extent through
the morning hours. Any areas of flash flooding that develop are
likely to focus across urban and other areas of poor draining,
remaining localized in coverage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9mIL8BFa2gasaYWoyUi5qRG3Of1RRU_n9PRYp394FRPLoJ3dKXYY6S7SbSiGb2zS-sgD= TGJYn7ZaxolHVDjniKRixg4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28608054 27788010 27008004 26998066 27908111=20
28528112=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100134
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-100730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0086
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
932 PM EDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...West-Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100133Z - 100730Z

SUMMARY...Upscale growth of organizing supercellular convection
into a multi-cell cluster/MCS will promote a localized and
primarily urban flash flood threat going into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and GOES-E IR satellite imagery
depict a cluster of supercells along a slow-moving cold front near
the KS/NE border. These storms are undergoing upscale growth, with
supporting factors including fairly strong effective bulk shear of
to 40 to 50 kts and MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg. Over the last
hour, this has favored an expansion of deep, cold convective tops
and intense updrafts.

As the 850 mb low-level jet veers and intensifies to over 40 kts
over the next several hours, low-level convergence will sharpen
along the western and southern flanks of the convective mass. With
storm motions of 15 to 25 kts generally parallel to the mean flow
and the boundary, periods of cell-training and cell-mergers are
expected. This will compensate for modest PWs of about 1.25 inches
and drive potential for high rainfall rates that may reach 1.5 to
2.5 inches/hour within the strongest cores and where any
cell-mergers occur.

While NASA SPoRT 0 to 10 cm soil moisture indicates significant
infiltration capacity in rural northeast KS, the 18Z HREF PMM and
neighborhood probabilities suggest localized 2 to 4 inch totals
are likely. These totals will approach and may locally exceed FFG
values and especially within the more sensitive urban corridors.
Areas downstream including Topeka, Kansas City and St. Joseph may
eventually see this activity later in the night. As such, the
concern over the next several hours, aside from well-defined
severe hazards with large hail, will be a localized and mainly
urban flash flood threat.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_V7P-J8QajZr8lmjAAmMYppb9LFmhtmko5uyNfAQNigk4X-nlxLjoH4L5j2wU9TvIs0M= nU_APk1NO-Lbst4Tpg4ANoA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40059625 39869477 39589418 38989419 38569493=20
38389618 38599761 38989810 39639790=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101901
FFGMPD
OKZ000-110100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0087
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101900Z - 110100Z

SUMMARY...Locally training areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will pose a threat for some urban flash flooding
going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Cooling convective tops are seen in GOES-E IR
satellite imagery becoming aligned in a general west to east
fashion across portions of north-central to northeast OK in close
proximity to a quasi-stationary front. Heavy showers and
thunderstorms are becoming a bit more concentrated with this
activity, and the latest radar trends suggest slow cell-motions
and some increasing cell-training concerns.

The activity is being facilitated by moist and unstable low-level
southwest flow into the boundary with MLCAPE values of as much as
1500 to 2000 J/kg and PWs of 1.2 to 1.4 inches across the region.
Despite relatively modest kinematic wind fields, there is an axis
of moderate moisture convergence in vicinity of the front, and
this coupled with increasing differential heating/instability near
the axis of convection should tend to sustain the convective
threat over the next few hours.

Generally the antecedent conditions are quite dry, with low soil
moisture content, but the rainfall rates with some of the ongoing
activity is already locally near 1.5 inches/hour. This coupled
with the slow cell-motions may favor some short-term totals of 2
to 4+ inches going through early this evening.

An isolated and mainly urban threat of flash flooding will exist
over the next few hours as a result, and this will include areas
from near Stillwater to Tulsa and along with adjacent communities.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7OMNe7bjzHGDuwRqcrOJ2shcTqUhlC8m8hS1dASOvDqJHGktya8xtEnuVl08ZovWkQ9-= eoQLKiJCVgHcmzqf1PHbDHk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36599485 36349471 35939536 35829684 35999767=20
36369765 36489701 36469622=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102142
FFGMPD
TXZ000-110200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0088
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
541 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Texas including the Houston
Metropolitan area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102141Z - 110200Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving, outflow-driven thunderstorms interacting
over highly urbanized areas will be capable of producing localized
rainfall rates of 2+ inches/hour. Isolated totals of 3 to 4 inches
may rapidly overwhelm municipal drainage, making localized flash
flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends depict scattered,
slow-moving clusters of thunderstorms developing across southeast
Texas. The thermodynamic environment is characterized by a moist,
weakly convergent low-level flow off the Gulf of America, with
PWATs near 1.75 inches and MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. While
deep-layer shear remains weak (effective bulk shear 20-30 kts),
weak upper-level divergence is supplying modest deep-layer ascent,
aiding in some maintenance of robust, high-efficiency updrafts.

Given the weak steering flow, the convective mode is primarily
pulse-type and outflow-dominant. The immediate flash flood threat
will be driven by mesoscale boundary interactions. Regional radar
currently shows multiple outflow boundaries in play?most notably
one positioned southwest of the Houston metro and another near
IAH. As these boundaries interact over the next few hours,
mechanical lift may force rapid, near-stationary convective
development and upscale growth directly over more sensitive urban
locations.

Rainfall rates have already approached 2 inches/hour with the
strongest cells. High-resolution guidance, particularly the HRRR
which has initialized the current convective evolution well,
suggests these boundary collisions will support isolated
additional rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches through early this
evening. Furthermore, the 12Z HREF highlights 10-30% probabilities
for 3-hour FFG exceedance this over the next several hours. Given
the high impervious surface coverage across the Houston metro,
these rates and accumulations may overwhelm local drainage systems
and bayous, leading to isolated areas of rapid-onset urban flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8UfP-FaEBTsYZq-U1BJISNdMdxS4kIjqF_7XutdEJFcVHfKrrsDx-b0npcVgfvZAwJZw= 5TdXzeXil7_qMLwkC4AGQLA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31059623 30659519 30319469 29999457 29479462=20
28919531 28909635 29599753 30359774 30939727=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110515
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0089
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
114 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...northeastern KS into southern/southeastern NE and
the MO Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110507Z - 111000Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible from portions
of northeastern KS into southern/southeastern NE and the MO Valley
through 10Z. Brief training of thunderstorms will be capable of
1-2 in/hr rain rates.

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms were increasing in coverage
across north-central KS into far southern NE as seen on area radar
imagery through 05Z. The cells were elevated, displaced well north
of a west-east oriented quasi-stationary front in OK, within an
airmass containing 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE per 05Z SPC mesoanalysis
data. Since 00Z, Southerly 850 mb winds have been strengthening
with 30-40 kt in place at 05Z per VAD wind data from northern OK
into southern NE. PWAT values were estimated to be between 1.0 and
1.3 inches across the central Plains with continued moisture
advection likely to increase PWAT values into the MO River Valley
through the night.

Some additional strengthening of the 850 mb flow into the 40-45 kt
range across KS is expected over the next 3-4 hours and the
approach of a weak shortwave impulse over southwestern KS should
continue an increasing trend in the coverage of elevated
showers/thunderstorms from northeastern KS into
southern/southeastern NE over the next few hours. As 850 mb winds
increase overnight, some veering of the low level flow is also
expected, bringing the low level wind orientation closer to the
mean steering flow from the SW. Given the moisture, instability
and forecast winds, some instances of training are likely to
result in hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches. These higher rates
should remain limited in coverage but flash flood guidance is at
or below 2 inches in 3 hours for much of the region, due in part
to locally heavy rainfall over the past 36 hours. Therefore,
localized flash flooding may result overnight with 1 to 3+ inch
total rainfall possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!48qr4XsdiFtClShi6w-ZrnC2lWuijYOSz66OvZpJ5YDM_U5fNmZMtF-REmLIPl0U20QT= 1Yeb5phRPebNuvpJ0GHXGlw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41329712 41299612 41169573 40809531 40499501=20
40259485 39909472 39469469 39099484 38789510=20
38589566 38619653 39009760 39669878 40339891=20
40899846=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110955
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0090
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...northeastern KS/southeastern NE into southwestern IA/northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110953Z - 111330Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will linger for another
few hours from northeastern KS/southeastern NE into southwestern IA/northwestern MO. The primary concern will be from
repeating/training of thunderstorms which will be capable of 1 to
2+ in/hr rain rates.

DISCUSSION...A NW to SE axis of thunderstorms was observed on
radar imagery at 0930Z from the KS/NE border near Superior, NE to
near Westmoreland in northeastern KS. The slow moving axis has
been associated with MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches over the past couple of hours but the axis of thunderstorms
appears to be slowly shifting northeast. 850 mb winds of 3o to 40+
kt continued to overrun a warm front slowly lifting north from
central OK with an axis of elevated convergence helping to focus
the cluster of heavy rain beneath a ridge axis aloft locally
aiding diffluent flow in the upper levels. A subtle shortwave was
also observed on water vapor imagery earlier in the night and is
likely approaching central KS with forecast movement toward the
northeast, around the ridge, helping to support lift.

850 mb wind speed magnitudes have likely peaked and recent RAP
forecasts showed gradual weakening through 15Z following the
diurnal cycle. However, ~25 to 35 kt of SSW 850 mb winds over
eastern KS will continue to overrun the surface boundary to the
south and the weak shortwave impulse approaching central KS from
the southwest will continue to provide ascent from northeastern KS
into the MO River Valley. Instability will be a limiting factor as
current values of MUCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg are forecast to
lower as moisture advection shifts the instability eastward across
the MO River.

The axis of heavy rain will likely translate eastward over the
next few hours with continued periods of training/repeating cells
with 1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall rates. This will continue to pose a
localized threat for flash flooding from northeastern
KS/southeastern NE into northwestern MO and possibly southwestern
IA. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected through 14Z
with locally higher flash flood potential where overlap occurs
with wet antecedent conditions over northeastern KS due to locally
heavy rain over the past 36 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8QQxASh5-vvLIyl0bOPmA5lpyQV8ph24pEYcquvTGWv9coFrhCZ5EnwIYxnrAS6KQ6_k= hg_4xliiOI76F61lkLRs1XE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41019522 40889393 40389350 39719368 39169441=20
39049551 39189654 39689754 40029835 40609801=20
40819704=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111337
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111636-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
936 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Kansas...Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111336Z - 111636Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms containing 1-2"/hr rainfall
rates will maintain the threat of localized flash flooding for
another few hours, primarily over portions of northeastern Kansas.

Discussion...Regional radar this morning continues to track a west
to east axis of training thunderstorms within a slow moving MCS
near the Kansas-Nebraska border. Recent MRMS estimated hourly
rainfall rates have eclipsed 2"/hr at times in the heaviest cells
at times. When combined with the slow net movement of the complex
(Corfidi Vectors are around 10-15 kts), 4-5" of rainfall led to at
least three reports of flash flood impacts in northern Kansas this
morning.

As highlighted earlier, the activity remains tied to a 35-40kt
low-level jet which is bisecting a west-east oriented cold pool
and synoptic front amid locally diffluent flow aloft. Radar
imagery also suggests the presence of a weak MCV embedded in the
complex which could locally enhance ascent in the area. Over the
next few hours, the RAP suggests 30-35 kts of 850 mb inflow
bisecting the west-east boundary could maintain the complex for a
few more hours, even with modest instability in place (~500 J/kg
MUCAPE). Much of the overnight CAM guidance has struggled with the
placement and intensity of this complex. However, the ARW seems to
have a better handle on the current activity and suggests the
training axis could persist for the next few hours. As such, the
threat of localized flash flooding will persist this morning, with
an additional 1-2" of rain possible.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7JDOHnwHVyoR9jvHIv4Dnizxwzt84oyH6DeI-4eZAhUKsKh7HBFJN6Ci6MbF7c57gFaW= ya8_oxZmjL-r0Fiq-jZ10xE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 40259601 40219520 40019439 39599433 39489490=20
39379618 39389653 39449696 39759714 39979690=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112028
FFGMPD
TXZ000-120226-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0092
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112026Z - 120226Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
intensity. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals to 4"
are possible into this evening, which could lead to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A region of 850 hPa confluence is slowly moving
across western TX. Convection across the TX Big Bend is sending
out an outflow boundary to the east. Precipitable water values
are ~1.25". An incoming shortwave is moving across northwest
Mexico, enhancing difluence aloft and increasing the effective
bulk shear to 25-45 kts. ML CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg, and rising.

With time, the area of 850 hPa confluence edges eastward across
portions of the TX Big Bend, Trans Pecos, and northwest TX. The
GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index implies that increasing convective
coverage and intensity should maximize in the 00z-03z time frame.=20
The shifting of the low-level confluence axis should keep amounts
from becoming particularly extreme. The available ingredients
suggest that hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals to
4" would be possible in this environment. Since Flash Flood
Guidance is modest, widely scattered flash flooding impacts are
considered possible. Urban areas and locations with minimal top
soil in western portions of South-Central TX would be most
sensitive to these rainfall rates/amounts.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6S6CodPXk1xunr7JwSe-qfaJRSzvcJUN_gfh9rSEMdEsInWsF0bToaBGQrG4Q__GFerO= bHIbaYGzFZOD7tsUELiUuZM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34550074 34309932 33279892 32129929 31020003=20
29800112 29510153 29590244 29080278 28910311=20
29070379 29560431 31090307 33270244=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120257
FFGMPD
TXZ000-120715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley into the
Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120252Z - 120715Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms is likely to produce areas of
flash flooding from portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley into
the Edwards Plateau over the next 4-5 hours. Peak hourly rainfall
could exceed 2 or 3 inches at times.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0230Z showed a broken line
of strong convection extending from near SJT to the Rio Grande,
roughly halfway between 6R6 and DRT. This line has been
propagating slowly toward the east but northern portions of the
line have been quicker to translate east compared to southern
portions. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall briefly exceeded 2 inches
along the Rio Grande in Val Verde County within the past hour due
to training as the NNE to SSW line orientation aligns with the
mean steering flow.

Large scale ascent ahead of an upper trough axis tracking across
AZ/NM and northwestern Mexico will continue over central TX
overnight and 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast to remain in place
(higher values to the south) which should help to fuel intense
cores of heavy rain. A strengthening low level jet with speeds of
30-40 kt, oriented parallel to the Rio Grande, will act to
transport moisture into the ongoing complex with the slowest
movement of the convective line likely to remain near the Rio
Grande, though brief hangups farther north will continue to remain
possible, supportive of SSW to NNE training. The moisture rich
environment with PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches and increasingly
divergent/diffluent flow ahead of the upper trough will aid lift
and allow hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, but locally exceeding
2 or perhaps 3 inches at times. While the best potential for the
highest rain rates will remain toward the south, these higher
rates may overlap with portions of the Edwards Plateau which
contain greater sensitivity to flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8TCPlAIuJOCoKdzncLt3D4dOp7-uC7Z02-DnORb5M7WF4hNu72dCxZYm4zIwjG3KZecP= Ar1IoDWt7NLkNFlA8tY8-OM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31779963 31379895 30349869 29649894 28929998=20
28780081 29060090 29510140 29640177 30060169=20
31190070=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120421
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-120920-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0094
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...north-central TX into south-central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120419Z - 120920Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered instances of flash
flooding will be possible from north-central TX into south-central
OK through 09Z. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher)
will be possible with 2 to 4 inches in 2-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...04Z radar imagery showed the northern portion of a
convective line moving into the Edwards Plateau was getting
slightly better organized over the past hour as it moved eastward
across I-20. Instability was on the weak side with 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE estimated via SPC mesoanalysis data and the 00Z FWD
sounding, along with PWs near 1.5 inches near and south of the Red
River. Water vapor imagery showed a couple of weaker vorticity
maxima over western TX, ahead of the main upper level shortwave
trough axis across northwestern Mexico which will continue to
provide ascent into the weakly unstable airmass downstream across
central TX into OK tonight.

RAP forecast guidance showed favorably diffluent flow aloft
maintaining over central TX into southern OK through 12Z Sunday.
Expectations are for the current axis of thunderstorms to continue
slowly advancing NNE and E ahead of the upper forcing to the west,
with transient axes of training helping to support 1 to 2+ in/hr
rain rates and possible flash flooding. While the main concern for
higher rates will be with the leading edge of the convective line,
there will be some potential for locally higher rates/training to
refocus to the west of the line as it shifts downstream due to the
diffluent flow aloft and an upstream impulse advancing
northeastward toward the Trans Pecos region of western TX as seen
on water vapor imagery.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-_-Q2hwEx7KarPBlHVSKjNr9BaEBTzQF2g4CKp3yUTtW7BuT45-6zIl9IGBqLsyjXz7B= olzEoDsYjDrWAyUfbyocJiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35979748 35879671 35639634 35089609 34309618=20
33629639 32879660 31959737 31309902 31389998=20
32180015 33440001 34719940 35699834=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120831
FFGMPD
TXZ000-121330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0095
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...Middle Rio Grande Valley into central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120828Z - 121330Z

SUMMARY...While the threat is not certain, the potential for at
least localized flash flooding will continue across the middle Rio
Grande Valley into portions of central TX this morning. The
possibility of peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will linger
through 13Z.

DISCUSSION...08Z radar imagery showed a weakening squall line over
central TX, moving east toward I-35, north of Austin, where a
relative lull in instability was estimated over central TX via 08Z
SPC mesoanalysis data (peaking near 500 J/kg MLCAPE) while
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE remained west of I-35 and south of I-10
within the middle Rio Grande Valley. The orientation of the
remnant squall line or outflow boundary was from NE to SW across
the Edwards Plateau to the Rio Grande near Del Rio, generally
aligned with the mean steering flow, resulting in less forward
motion for the southern portion of the outflow boundary. Isolated
convective activity was observed north of the outflow boundary and
south of the Rio Grande over northern Coahuila's Serranias del
Burro.

VAD wind plots showed that 35-40 kt of 850 mb southerly inflow
remained over the lower Rio Grande Valley into the Edwards Plateau
and atop the rain-cooled outflow boundary. Meanwhile, water vapor
imagery showed an approaching lead shortwave trough over the Big
Bend Country, advancing northeastward. Lift ahead of this feature
was evidenced by the recent shower/thunderstorm development over
northern Coahuila. It seems plausible that additional development
may occur along the southwestern flank of outflow, tied to the
eastward translating MCS over central TX with mean steering flow
supporting training from SW to NE, within the lingering
instability max. Aloft, a 90-110 kt upper level jet streak is
forecast to cross the Rio Grande and advance into western OK
through the morning hours, placing favorable right-entrance region
ascent over the Edwards Plateau. In addition, RAP forecasts showed
largely uninhibited MLCAPE returning northward back across eastern
portions of the Edwards Plateau and the I-35 corridor this morning
due to continued low level moisture transport. Therefore, while
coverage of additional thunderstorms remains unclear, at least a
localized flash flood threat will continue over the middle Rio
Grande Valley into portions of central TX through at least 13Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_3FlNpW6BRCKRKImp4hH3qvBATr_8e3WL0zq0GV47pVlRjal9jyjHcjYCG8Ay8XtKy5l= 5F2VyGGL6b2WxpXiEWjjrEo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31999652 31529594 30669610 30109658 29399760=20
28769895 28629991 28650054 28770069 29250104=20
29710163 30460033 31119904 31969747=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121619
FFGMPD
TXZ000-122217-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1218 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121617Z - 122217Z

Summary...Increasing potential for flash flooding this afternoon
as thunderstorms containing 2-3"/hr rainfall rates develop in the
next 2-3 hours and congeal into an MCS. Locally significant flash
flooding is possible, especially atop sensitive urban areas in the
region.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are showing increased
development across South-Central Texas late this morning as a very
moist airmass continues to destabilize. An intense, localized
cluster of thunderstorms near Gonzales county recently exhibited
2.5-3"/hr rainfall rates according to MRMS and KEWX. When combined
with slow forward motions around 20 kts, a corridor of FFG
exceedance was noted over the last 15 minutes.=20

These early storms are tapping into a very favorable environment
for efficient heavy rainfall production; 12Z RAOB from BRO and
ACARS profiles from AUS and SAT depict a deep moist layer from the
surface to 750 mb (PWAT of 1.7-1.8"), tall instability profiles
characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, and WBZ heights over
3500 m. An inversion above the moist layer has thus far suppressed
more widespread development, although this is expected to weaken
over time as large scale ascent strengthens over the next few
hours while the column continues to moisten.

As such, thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage and
intensity over the next few hours. By 17-18z, the 12z CAM suite is
in good agreement for this activity to congeal into an MCS
containing training thunderstorms along a NE-SW axis -- possibly
along a remnant cold pool evident in surface obs. Forecast Corfidi
vectors near 10 kts suggest this complex will be quite slow to
move once it develops, in turn lengthening the residence time of
2-3"/hr rainfall rates within the strongest individual cells.
While the area has been dry according to NASA SPoRT soil moisture
percentiles, the risk of flash flooding is expected to increase
over the next 6 hours as 3-6" fall in the main axis of training.
Significant flash flooding is possible should this fall over a
sensitive urban area.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6l5fxvgg0Ga24XrcAiL7fdIFH_5gslDM_qZveZxQ_cc0YwW17qlWHwCr4bDlkiesKVsA= EMVZR837bFWVyXMVWomDxKs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31379590 30859516 29989564 29049725 28959831=20
29579882 30369847 31079733=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122018
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130216-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0097
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122016Z - 130216Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions
of central TX. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
are possible, which could lead to scattered instances of flash
flooding over partially saturated soils.

Discussion...The combination of shortwaves aloft crossing the
TX/OK border and northern Mexico have led to a difluent pattern
aloft across the region. Precipitable water values are 1.5-1.8"
per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of ~50 kts exists. ML CAPE is
around 2000 J/kg (higher to the west and lower to the east).

Inflow at 850 hPa slowly backs with time as the upper level
shortwave in northern MX approaches, which along with no
additional eastward progress in the instability gradient should
hold up forward forward propagation to the northeast. The 12z
GFS-based Galvez-Davison index implies that the current convective
uptick maximizes in the 21-00z period before slowly fading
thereafter in this area. Both the 12z HREF and 12z REFS have a
heavy rainfall signal across the region, though of differing
magnitudes. Given the above ingredients which favor mesocyclone
formation and cell training, along with the possibility that
storms of different levels of organization could merge, hourly
amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible. Given the
recently compromised flash flood guidance values due to recent
heavy rainfall, scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8j2UxM1SGtHNsq_QI1ob82WzX2FdtDrZMFk4nPqkt6h33-miTPan9qw8F2P0QPMkg4eY= Z1hEz4csPMkB4OnF9cs_Ej8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32359813 32339732 31189682 29479732 29309826=20
30019894 31669899=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122101
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130259-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0098
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122059Z - 130259Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with some level of organization will
continue to attempt to train into this evening. Hourly amounts to
3" with additional local totals to 5" are possible, which could
lead to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have been moving
east-northeast inland of the Middle & Upper TX Coasts near the
tail end of an MCV moving through portions of MO, which shows up
as an eastward branch of the 850 hPa inflow/convergence. Earlier
this afternoon, hourly rain amounts were quite high, though
they've settled back towards 2.5-3" as of late. Precipitable
water values are 1.8-2" per GPS data. ML CAPE is 1000-1500 J/kg.=20
Effective bulk shear is 25-35 kts which is organizing convection.

Both the 12z REFS and 18z HREF are at least a county too far
inland with this convective activity. While their six hour
probabilities show a tendency for the activity to approach the
TX/LA border, the REFS hourly probabilities in particular are
fairly far to the east/too quick when compared to recent radar
reflectivity imagery. A combination of cell training and embedded
mesocyclones appear to be the main cause for heavy rainfall in
this region, though merging convection cannot be ruled out could
any cells form south of the band and approach it. ML CAPE
supports the idea of this activity making a run for the LA border,
but with decreasing instability with time, there could be a
tendency for increased forward propagation/decreased precipitation
amounts with time. With somewhat higher instability to the north
the farther east you go in this region, thunderstorm activity may
try to correct towards the 18z HREF solution and edge a little
more northward as well. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with additional
local totals to 5" remain possible, which could lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5nMBgV5t9cCt79LlQETJWpm7K6GjQ240BRaV-E-svg4sWr9O9XPQSrTHrurNmmfxbRjA= aPMRiPqOIy0SlzDTLr2vtxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31319378 30159385 29649511 29629620 29979635=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130324
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0099
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1123 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 130322Z - 130700Z

Summary...A small, slow moving cluster of thunderstorms is
expected to maintain peak rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr and
localized flash flooding across portions of central TX over the
next 2-4 hours. Afterward, eastward translation and weakening is
anticipated.

Discussion...03Z radar imagery showed a small thunderstorm cluster
over and just west of the Colorado River in San Saba and Llano
counties. This cluster has had a history of backbuilding and
training with observed hourly rainfall of 2.5 inches and
MRMS-derived estimates locally over 3 inches over San Saba County.
It was located just on the cool side of an elongated, remnant
outflow boundary from earlier on Sunday that extended from near
New Braunfels into the Hill Country and northward across I-20,
just east of Abilene. Water vapor imagery showed a number of
vorticity maxima embedded within the WSW flow aloft. At 03Z, a
more notable vorticity max was located just northeast of San
Antonio, with another more subtle feature over Concho and Menard
counties, west of the ongoing thunderstorms.

Expectations are for low level flow overrunning the outflow to
continue to support thunderstorms over portions of central TX
within a moderately unstable airmass characterized by 1500 to
2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches (SPC mesoanalysis).
However, passage of the vorticity maxima/shortwave features aloft
should cause the ongoing activity to shift east in another couple
of hours while additional development occurs downstream toward the
east, with eventual weakening as increasing CIN is encountered
toward the east. There is some uncertainty with exactly how long
the backbuilding signature will continue over San Saba and Llano
counties, but current thinking is that the passage of the embedded
impulses aloft should disrupt the ongoing activity within the next
2-3 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8pcpmXpFhE2czLV347fybNztipkC3atoiLr2jFxkU4IQKY_67vA06heOHYA0UdhIf3n0= ErkfDhUi8YwEmk5Z5Ni57eA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32069713 31929682 31659668 31359660 31129663=20
30859695 30689738 30599828 30679895 30929919=20
31089929 31379914 31579875 31879812 32039757=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132142
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-140330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0100
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
541 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...Much of Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and
U.P. of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 132140Z - 140330Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming along a warm frontal boundary will
organize into training lines of storms, over an area of saturated
soils through this evening. Flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION... Several areas of convection have begun to form along
a warm frontal boundary across much of Wisconsin and southeast
Minnesota this afternoon. These storms are being fed by moisture
influx with PWATs around 1 inch along the front, but over 1.3
inches along the Illinois/Wisconsin border, based on the latest
SPC Mesoanalysis. CAMs guidance is in good agreement that the
storms will continue to grow upscale into an MCS that will then
support training storms propagating eastward across central and
northern Wisconsin. A cold front shown across northern Minnesota
will press southeastward and eventually help to push the MCS
southward with time.

Soils across Minnesota and Wisconsin are nearly saturated due to
recent rainfall and around the U.P. of Michigan, recent snowmelt
as shown on NASA SPoRT imagery. With above average river levels
and nearly saturated soils across nearly all of Wisconsin, almost
all of the rainfall expected from this forecast MCS will convert
to runoff quickly. FFGs across this region on average are around
1.5 inches/1 hour, 2 inches/3 hours, and 2.5 inches/6 hours. These
values are likely to be exceeded with multiple rounds of training
storms expected late this afternoon and this evening. The cells
south of the Twin Cities have a history of rainfall rates
exceeding 2 inches/hour at times, showing that the atmosphere is
capable of rates exceeding these aforementioned FFG values.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7G1XSLTDBBKEgE6KnC6HjiSFk-T-6U4Bgr0ABoBXm8-JrDZHBYlj134353NlsdE9nf1H= lWiBku11TKmoojCTL9tJ1SM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46828894 46588739 45458680 44468747 43548763=20
43368904 43429003 43509140 43739228 44039312=20
44719364 45179376 45829361 46349312 46619141=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132331
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-140330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0101
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Minnesota and Northwest Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132330Z - 140330Z

SUMMARY... Clusters of storms are forming across portions of
southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa this evening. Localized
rain rates to 2" per hour could cause isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION... Convective coverage has rapidly increased across
portions of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa this evening as
part of a broader low pressure center and warm frontal system,
tapping into Gulf moisture riding up to the south and east of
these features. Rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour have
been observed on radar, with somewhat moistened soils in the area
from recent rainfall, based on NASA SPoRT imagery.

CAMs guidance is in poor agreement in this area, with none of the
guidance suggesting convective coverage would be as robust in this
area than has already formed. For those that have a hint of the
southern extent of this convection (NAMnest, ARW to a lesser
extent, and HRRR to an even lesser extent), all suggest much
faster and more eastward motions to these storms than have already
been occurring. Thus, with slower and more northward storm
motions, towards areas where storms have already formed across far
southern Minnesota, expect more robust training and heavier
rainfall rates than the guidance is suggesting, favoring more
potential for flash flooding over the next few hours.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6X1tqeZU-LUfkuQOxQe1ZCk91388CwJGlSqrn-Xsd_p7IlWiLuBHXrVEhhbbR6vhNbAj= BNCnIg_odYgJqLuN6203qEk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45369378 44999377 44649360 44179331 43929301=20
43769257 43649215 43449216 43129229 42679296=20
42619447 42549518 42579577 42809622 43209651=20
43539693 44139664 44909551 45309470 45349421=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140347
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-140800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0102
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1145 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...southern WI into central/northern Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140344Z - 140800Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be likely from southern WI
into central/northern Lower MI over the next 4-5 hours. Saturated
to nearly saturated soils are expected to be a contributing factor
to excess runoff from rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr.

Discussion...0320Z radar imagery across the Upper Midwest showed
an MCS with an elongated convective line on its southern flank,
oriented west-east from the MN/WI/IA tri-state region into
northwestern Lower MI. The cluster of thunderstorms were located
along a quasi-stationary front that extended west to east through
central WI/MI with 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over northeastern
IA, lowest over Lower MI) estimated just south of the boundary per
03Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Infrared imagery showed cloud tops
continued to cool with divergence aloft aided within the
right-entrance region of a 110-130 kt upper level jet streak
positioned over Lake Superior into southern Quebec. 850 mb VAD
wind data showed 50-60 kt of SSW flow from eastern IA into
northern IL and southern WI, aiding rapid moisture transport
across Lake Michigan into Lower MI with upstream moisture over the
Midwest between 1.2 and 1.4 inches.

As the main surface low along the front in northwestern IA
advances ENE tonight, continued southerly flow ahead of the low
into the ongoing complex of storms should sustain convection
within the unstable airmass for several more hours. Mean cell
motions from the W to SW will interact with the southerly low
level inflow allowing for segments of the line to advance
southeastward at times. Cell mergers and training within the
linear segments of the MCS will attain rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
at times with an overall movement toward the east through 08Z.
Most soils across the region are saturated due to snowmelt and/or
recent rainfall, with additional heavy rainfall more quickly
translating into runoff compared to average. Therefore, areas of
flash flooding are likely to occur across southern WI into Lower
MI over the next 4-5 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7L1O-mnGFqvdnGQKawceVca5wKPKEE_53aZyZ3QByeXtRcHpH_iNlJdj0PPvcB--9qxe= 996tFkVy9okNckkMMmvxAfw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DTX...GRB...GRR...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45818459 45288327 44528305 43748367 42798585=20
42498773 42528950 42719070 43409120 44019101=20
44319034 44578902 45028737 45468637=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141802
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IA...Southern WI...Northern and Eastern
IL...Western and Central IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141800Z - 150000Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms coupled with locally wet/sensitive antecedent
conditions will foster an isolated to scattered threat for flash
flooding going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows stronger diurnal heating promoting a steady destabilization
of the boundary layer across eastern IA, western IL and nosing
into southwest WI. This airmass is pooling south and east of a
quasi-stationary front as multiple waves of low pressure advance
along it.

Some modest CINH remains in place across these areas, but MLCAPE
values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are already in place, and this is
being supported by steep mid-level lapse rates transiting the
Midwest. Meanwhile, satellite imagery shows a modest mid-level
shortwave impulse ejecting northeastward across central and
eastern IA down through northern MO and into western IL. This
energy coupled with additional solar insolation should erode the
remaining CAP across the region and set the stage for convective
initiation. Much of this should be focused in close proximity to a leftover/diffuse outflow boundary from the early-day convection.

As convection grows upscale, there will gradually be concerns for
a few cell-mergers and some cell-training. A combination of
multicells and supercells will be likely given the strong
instability in conjunction with strong shear (effective bulk shear
approaching 50 kts). The larger scale environment is also
increasingly moist with aid from a southwest low-level jet of 30
to 40+ kts. Deeper layer southwesterly moisture transport is noted
aloft too with elevated CIRA-LVT magnitudes.

Locally significant model disagreement is noted through this
evening with the placement of the convection and its general
evolution, but a multi-model consensus suggests eastern IA,
northern IL and southern WI seeing one focus for convection, with
areas of central/eastern IL and into western IN seeing a second
focus.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour,
with some localized totals by early this evening of 2 to 4 inches.
The antecedent conditions are locally quite sensitive, and
especially from eastern IA through northern IL and southern WI.
Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible as
a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6rVoRhS9MtZ95Sj6aCH05vO57EMIhqP-DU7yZfIuOyX3spDEUeEb69FAjBiqp3DRaLHv= v5fBXogv1SsUKymmwi2Cj7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43969015 43808891 43378810 42458766 41648679=20
41038574 40368523 39538567 39238682 39538845=20
40048943 41199043 41619249 41909331 42369330=20
42689297 43329238 43909121=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142204
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-150402-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0104
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
603 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of western North Texas and the
southeastern Texas Plains into southern and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142202Z - 150402Z

Summary...Ongoing convective evolution suggests an increasing
flash flood threat for areas near Vernon, Lawton, and eventually
toward the I-35 corridor in central Oklahoma through 04Z/11p
Central.

Discussion...Scattered, deep convection continues to increase in
coverage across western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.=20
Recent surface obs indicate subtle veering of flow west of a
dryline across the Texas South Plains, and objective
analyses/satellite suggest subtle vort maxima riding atop the
dryline and over a warm, unstable airmass over the discussion
area. These trends suggest continued expansion of convective
coverage across the discussion area over the next few hours
(especially as the low-level jet ramps up), with areas of training
and mergers expected to foster spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates
especially near the Red River.

Antecedent conditions are a somewhat moist across the region from
prior heavy-rain events over the past week. Sensitive terrain and
urbanized areas (near Lawton in particular) could also experience
a higher runoff risk. The overall focus for flash flooding should
revolve around sensitive spots and locations of cell mergers -
with background/mean flow fields (around 35-45 knots) suggestive
that prolonged heavier rainfall (and >1.5 inch/hr rates/local FFG)
may not occur on a widespread basis.

Flash flooding is possible with this regime initially over
southwestern OK and western north Texas, with the risk spreading
northeastward toward I-35 in Oklahoma later tonight.

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6VoGB_M1a_9ytYeE6UWe8iLQ051eCBJO1BKLKOA725_8XkZLNT0flAJJgr3NBTOQttOi= 3Q_C8zlaihqgqTHhLhv-AsE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35969737 35969640 34589601 33539662 33169844=20
32870002 32960060 33570089 34530062 35180008=20
35599891=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142357
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-150556-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0105
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of Wisconsin and Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142356Z - 150556Z

Summary...Deep convection will continue to produce heavy rainfall
while migrating eastward through Wisconsin, across Lake Michigan,
and eventually into Lower Michigan. Flash flooding is likely
given ongoing impacts and local sensitivities in the region.

Discussion...Deep convection has evolved as expected from the
Mississippi River eastward across much of Wisconsin and
northeastern Iowa. Favorable interactions with a warm frontal
zone and steep lapse rates aloft have enabled intense updrafts and
embedded mesocyclones to occasionally merge and produce spots of 2
inches/hr of rainfall at times. Areas of flash flooding are
possible in the short term.

Of particular concern is the potential for storms to expand
northeastward and eastward in coverage. The position of warm
frontal zone over central Wisconsin and cooler Lake Michigan
waters may weaken convection as storms move atop slightly
cooler/stable low-level air, although very steep lapse rates aloft
downstream should maintain convection as it migrates toward areas
that have experienced 3-5 inches of rainfall over the past 3 days,
with ongoing impacts to local watersheds in the area. FFGs fall
to below 1 inch/hr in a few downstream areas, highlighting the
sensitivity of the ground conditions there. Approaching heavy
rainfall may worsen ongoing recovery efforts and perhaps cause new
instances of flash flooding to occur.

Peak flash flood potential will spread into northeastern Wisconsin
in the 00-04Z timeframe and eventually spread into Lower Michigan
generally from 02Z onward.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7kgjJfhxvhUeO4YT74P3s8DQ6l_xpQ24IGlUfxoboD8Y2QG0QSY5486_Dp46h_RYXL9-= Huhx9HqLAuI5qFzRolT1pZE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DTX...DVN...GRB...GRR...IWX...LOT...
MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45408569 45298379 44028325 42218366 41788510=20
41898733 42518836 42508976 43319091 44929033=20
45348892=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150024
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-150623-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0106
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150023Z - 150623Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are expected to not only persist, but
train and repeat over areas very near the WI/IL border vicinity
over the next several hours. Flash flooding is likely, and
significant impacts cannot be ruled out.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery depicts a mature convective
complex with embedded linear structures and mesocyclones extending
from south-central WI (near Madison) southwestward to near Dubuque
and Cedar Rapids. Other convection was anchored/backbuilding near
a warm front close to and just north of Milwaukee. Each of these
convective clusters were producing expanding cold pools that were
progressively orienting perpendicular to increasing southwesterly
low-level flow, with 45kts now noted on mesoanalyses at 850mb
across much of IA/IL. Latest indications are that these
convective clusters will continue to backbuild and train owing to
convergence along strengthening outflows and strong upstream
buoyancy (~3000 J/kg MLCAPE).=20

The scenario is beginning to favor multiple hours of repeating
convection (1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates) very close to where ongoing
convection exists currently. Localized 3-5 inch rainfall totals
are possible over the next 6 hours. This could result in
significant flash flood potential as FFG thresholds across the
area are only at around 1 inch/hr and will be readily exceeded.=20
This potential will likely exist through 06Z/1a central, with
populated areas near Madison, Milwaukee, Rockford, and perhaps
Chicago potentially experiencing impacts.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_RimPN4452Lz3CSs_IelT7ml5jPYxQHeJmRoaCJABg12dpxpwKNOMVjDMdImE2PL8K-g= NjzLo2BW4jUzEE5JhCUattE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43498958 43368824 42998765 41958741 41538758=20
41248859 41319028 41369158 41559227 41839253=20
42249259 43009239 43179125=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150528
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-151020-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0107
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...northeastern IL/southeastern WI to southern
MI/northern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150526Z - 151020Z

SUMMARY...Scattered flash flooding will be possible in the
vicinity of the eastern IL/WI border, eastward to southern Lower
MI, northern IN and northwestern OH. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
(locally higher) are expected along with peak additional rainfall
totals of 2-3 inches through 10Z

DISCUSSION...05Z radar imagery depicted a trailing stratiform MCS
moving across Lower MI with the leading edge pressing
southeastward across southern MI into northern IN. An outflow
boundary was analyzed ahead of the convective line from
southeastern MI into northern IN/IL with upstream thunderstorm
development occurring north of the western portion of the boundary
along the WI/IL border. 925-850 mb winds were from the SW at 45-55
kt to the south of the boundary over north-central IL and
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE extended from the MI/IN border back west to
the MS River, per SPC mesoanalysis data.

The leading edge of the MCS is expected to continue tracking
toward the ESE across southeastern MI into northern IN and
northwestern OH over the next 1 to 2 hours, but back to the west,
continued convective development is likely as moist, low level
flow overruns the slow moving western portion of the rain-cooled
outflow. Mean cell motions are generally from the west which will
setup a favorable pattern for training from west to east given
alignment with the low level boundary. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2
in/hr are likely (locally higher possible), and an additional 2 to
3 inches of rain is expected through 10Z where cell training is
maximized. Flash flood guidance is less than 2 inches in 3 hours
for some locations, especially across northern IL/southern WI
where heavy rain over the past 12-24 hours has contributed to
reduced soil infiltration.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4gUZnv0Qxp7R8HWlZNMdEUOjnXzvwcsKhaQiAxAI-iAuF1r4A3I0uJ-ZiXaLC7iOJvba= 8vQFf0NVtX6daqnhMsw5PxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43668276 43568226 43138209 42448225 41578312=20
41298455 41268640 41468819 41788922 42428939=20
42908878 42848652 42988484 43578350=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152148
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-160246-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0108
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152146Z - 160246Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will migrate eastward across wet/sensitive
areas from yesterday's rainfall especially across Wisconsin.=20
Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have organized along a
frontal boundary from just north of Dubuque to Des Moines. The
storms are exhibiting linear organization so far in their
evolution, with forward propagation and 40-50 kt speeds generally
limiting their rainfall potential to around 1 inch/hr or less.=20
Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis in the short term.

Over the next 1-4 hours, however, storms will migrate eastward
along a remnant outflow/frontal boundary extending east-west
across southern Wisconsin (generally from Sheboygan to Wisconsin
Dells). As low-level flow increases over Illinois, convergence
along this boundary could result in additional convection
developing in southern/southeastern Wisconsin out ahead of the
ongoing quasi-linear complex. This will increase potential for training/mergers and prolonged rainfall rates in areas that have
already experienced 1-4 inches of rainfall yesterday near/north
and west of Milwaukee and across far northern Illinois. FFGs are
less than 1 inch/hr in some spots and could readily be exceeded
where mergers take place. Flash flooding is likely - especially
in sensitive areas that received rainfall/runoff issues late
yesterday and early today.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5opxEbcOifoi00puOb7C5zg01c-pm_jWC9NSJEfq1mEfdNRUZ1jcte1ysb-WmCRTq14u= t29w5aSU3WiQJFXPtvtydIo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44558947 44408783 43208786 42008773 41548866=20
41449051 42319153 43979095=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152301
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160459-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0109
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...much of Missouri, a small part of southeastern
Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152259Z - 160459Z

Summary...Deep convection is organizing into clusters/segments
with localized training. Localized flash flooding is possible
especially in low-spots and sensitive areas.

Discussion...Convection continues to mature along and east of a
dryline extending from near Kansas City south-southwestward to
near Bartlesville and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The storms are in
a very moist, unstable airmass (with 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.5 inch
PW values) supporting locally heavy rainfall at times despite
appreciable storm motions of around 30-40 knots.

The storms are in an environment with modest forcing for ascent
due to the slow movement of the dryline, with an approaching
vort-max over Nebraska and confluence ahead of the dryline helping
to deepen and expand convective coverage. Because storms aren't
strictly confined to the dryline, a few areas of training have
been noted (especially across far southwestern Missouri near
Joplin). These trends should continue for several more hours as
evidence of any distinct upscale growth into forward-propagating
linear segments (that would effectively reduce rain rates) is
currently unclear.

Localized training/repeating is likely to result in spots of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates at times on a localized basis. These rain
rates will threaten local FFG thresholds, with local sensitivities
also contributing to a potential flash flood risk. This risk will
persist for several hours this evening - perhaps through 03-04Z
tonight.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4QBPUYiOvvcrSPYpuhtkEviwBvLAooHGfmdwrtbeqZBMskhBe_do-t8cvF3LxHUIUCMe= m9tMCSe9Cl1O5RzzcsdF2es$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40509182 39399086 37999060 37039114 36699282=20
36749448 37119532 38149503 39479452 40199364=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160012
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-160609-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0110
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Oklahoma, far north Texas,
far western Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160009Z - 160609Z

Summary...An axis of training convection has materialized from
near Wichita Falls through Ardmore to near McAlister. This heavy
rain axis should translate east-northeastward over the next few
hours, with flash flooding possible especially across southern
Oklahoma.

Discussion...Initial scattered convection has recently aligned
into a focused, training axis of cells along the Red River Valley
this evening. The storms are in a weakly forced environment, with
forcing for ascent resulting from the glancing influence of a
mid-level wave over Nebraska and weakly confluent low-level flow
across the region. The orientation of cells parallel to mean flow
aloft - combined with their gradual maturity and establishment of
cold pools - suggests that training convection will continue to be
an issue for at least a few hours. This training band of
convection will gradually translate east-northeastward into more
of eastern Oklahoma and perhaps far western Arkansas through the
overnight hours. A secondary training band of convection
near/north of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex may also materialize
over the next couple hours.

Ground conditions are relatively dry in many areas, with hourly
FFG thresholds exceeding 2-2.5 inches in spots. This suggests
isolated flash flood potential across the region - mainly tied to
low spots and/or urban areas. Persistence of training, however
(as evidenced by 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates near Ardmore) suggests
that appreciable impacts may occur where rainfall is heaviest and
most persistent. This isolated flash flood threat should persist
for several hours - perhaps through 06Z/1a central.

Cook=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!94K4h8YfYfUxaStsHe_mwQL2Cg4STxUAwOgtVe0vJgX8kBrY3h64uUeSF04aU6SgfTz9= sW5g0eOrXgiqZql0yM0HAKo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35899509 35869426 34929421 33509505 33079635=20
32859832 34239831 35069740=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160311
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-160800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1110 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois...East-Central/Southeast
Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160310Z - 160800Z

SUMMARY...Mature MCV continues to provide solid WAA ascent coupled
with nose of enhanced deep layer moisture likely to support
efficient rainfall production with rates of 1.5-1.75" and streaks
of 2-3" totals resulting in possible incident(s) of localized
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR suite depicts a maturing MCV just
southwest of metro St. Louis lifting northeastward at this time.=20
GOES-E WV and RADAR show a broadening mid-level baroclinic
leaf/shield indicative of continued favorable evacuation aloft to
maintain the MCS for the next few hours. VWP and RAP analysis
denote the broad divergence is supporting strengthening low level
flow with solid confluence at the nose of the deeper layer
moisture axis. CIRA LPW shows corridor of 850-500mb moisture is
aligned ideally with the southwesterly flow but sfc to 850mb
moisture is very broad and increasing to support TPW value in
excess of 1.5". The 30-35kts of 850-700mb confluent flow in this
moisture regime will support 1.5-1.75" rainfall production even
with reducing/narrowing unstable axis (generally 500-750 J/kg of
MUCAPEs). The MCV is also providing a corralling of downstream
flow into a well defined deformation axis that is generally
parallel to the deeper layer steering. This orientation will be
the supportive requirement for increased duration to support
localized steaks of 2-3" totals.

Unlike further north, the ground conditions are much drier due to
the prolonged drought. Yet, FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 2-3"/3hr
are in the realm of exceedance and while not all locations will be
exceeded there should be a few areas that may lead to localized
flash flooding conditions through the early overnight period. As
such, flash flooding is considered possible across central IL back
through east-central MO; with slightly higher potential in the
urban areas near Metro St. Louis, due to hydrophobic grounds and
drainage.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_WoxM95G8ExX39lGSpA8s-H7qn-FUCdGbkYh4vn_8BhypuFWDWSIc__7RJp008JX_uhC= d3_AwawJzGwp-3qEB59Qe3Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40338843 39928763 39148773 38638840 37699014=20
37499135 37969181 38549157 38819130 39579024=20
40138941=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160234
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-160800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0111
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Northern IL...Far Southeast WI...Southern L.P. of
MI...Far Northwest IND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160235Z - 160800Z

SUMMARY...Potential for localized flash flooding continues through
the early overnight period; though coverage should become more
scattered with loss of heating/rainfall intensity. Rates of
1.5-1.75"/hr and spots of 2-3" remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR depicts a mature MCV across central
Lake Michigan just east of Milwaukee progressing toward
Holland/Muskegon, MI with a trailing QLCS convective line
extending across SE WI into the NW Exurbs of Chicago along W I-88
in N IL toward the Quad Cities. The cold pool appears to be
maturing as well, increasing forward propagation of the line
particularly through the middle, toward the WI/IL line, this is
reducing overall residency time for extreme rainfall totals, but
the short-term heavy bursts may still result in 1-1.5" in 30 to 60
minutes. Given recent heavy rainfall and saturated upper soil
profiles and proximity to hydrophobic urban conditions near
Chicago will result in increased run-off and likely incidents of
localized flash flooding/rapid rise flood, especially in the next
few hours.

GOES-WV shows expanding divergence region along the entrance of a
100 kt 3H speed max across the LP of MI at this time, helping to
maintain the MCV crossing the more stable air of Lake Michigan but
solid southwesterly warm-air advection is allowing for downstream
convergence with limited but sufficient MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg.=20
VWP shows solid 850-700 40-45kt flow at the western nose of the
deep layer moisture axis where overall PW totals are increasing to
over 1.25". This will likely continue to support 1.5-1.75"/hr
rates and given the record wet spring across the SW LP; FFGs are
compromised in spots and while typically sandy and able to absorb
these rates and totals up to 2-3", saturation over 75% to 85% will
still quickly be overwhelmed with above normal run off and
potential for localized flash flooding conditions. However,
proximity to the unstable air will be increasing (along with
overall diurnal loss) and overall intensity of thunderstorms will
be steadily increasing through the night reducing overall coverage
and magnitude of flooding potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4LPc5RRJ7D_EWUR-GQyFYstxacfepZIrau-Gq7EetmrgliaA_S5VAKvEdlNZqw0hlovq= memycrUKXrRQJ4-THjJqulI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...DVN...GRR...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43868583 43758458 43508280 42468379 41648587=20
41268769 41238976 41499024 42108976 42648902=20
42968835 43578710=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160444
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Southwest Missouri...Adj.
Northwest Arkansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160445Z - 160845Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of potential localized flash flooding
due to slow moving/training thunderstorms across the Ozark Plateau.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR and regional RADAR mosaic shows a
solid warming/weakening trend to the convective line across much
of the Ozark Plateau. RAP analysis shows warming low levels and
increasing CINH trends across the remaining well of 1000-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE, the exception remaining along the upwind edge across NE
OK; and this is where the healthiest updrafts remain. Still,
KINX/KSGF show most are starting to have dominating outflow
patterns. However, as the dry-line retreated and the mean
upper-level shortwave trough across IA is kicking east; a weakness
in the overall mid-level flow/steering is lying perpendicular to
weakening but sufficient southerly surface to boundary layer/925mb
flow providing solid moisture flux convergence in proximity to the
remaining MLCAPE axis. Tds in the upper 60s to low 70s. With this
convergence and steering flow parallel to the boundary (and
slacking), training or increased downdraft residency may allow for
a narrow axis of enhanced rainfall rates up to 1.75"/hr for a
potential of localized 2-3" total. Beside naturally lower FFG
due to complex terrain across the Ozark Plateau, even further west
into NE OK, FFG values are locally lower with hourly values less
than 1.5-2" and 3" values less than 3". So an isolated incident
or two of flash flooding remains possible more likely over the
next few hours (through 06z) than into late overnight hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-TvB5wH1yA2rEBw5_ycJhpkLeoKNTS-Ovu9k5jlIx-qJ2pkeb0t11tRXvyqCe5r2sRyr= ukq0ka5--mZ0V5dP_wCKRGU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37839174 37359132 36779169 36529332 36329416=20
36139587 36179651 36579663 36769627 36979505=20
37359379 37769264=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162003
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-170001-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0114
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...a small part of Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162001Z - 170001Z

Summary...Isolated, slow-moving thunderstorms could cause
localized flash flooding for the next few hours (through 00Z/7p
central).

Discussion...A localized cluster of thunderstorms has become
established across central Missouri. The storms have developed in
response to strong insolation/surface destabilization beneath a
very cold mid/upper wave (-18C at 500 hPa). The storms are also
in a very localized area where mid-level flow drops off
substantially, with right-moving storm motions falling to around
5-10 knots per point forecast soundings. This explains recent
behavior of the storm cluster very near Osage Beach, MO, where
MRMS estimates of 1+ inch/hr in that area were already exceeding
local FFG.

Given the weak forcing for ascent, convective coverage is in
question. Persistence of ongoing activity - or perhaps additional
slow-moving cluster(s) of convection could produce 1 inch/hr rain
rates at times. Again, these rates could exceed FFG, and given
sensitive local terrain in the region, another instance or two of
flash flooding cannot be completely ruled out. This risk will
likely be diurnally driven and lessen some after sunset.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ObucWhVuhSJtJ-DCrbSpVcGeYPrECRaPTiEJb1XmBzxTkejYnTMq5FUaz6gFsNiaqkA= M_oO_IyUC9okdjLdiTlDbSA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 38919228 38839074 38279022 37459022 37119109=20
37199248 37689329 38099339 38809317=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171811
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-180010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...Northeast MO...Western and Northern IL..Eastern
IA...Far Southeast MN...Central and Southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171810Z - 180010Z

SUMMARY...Rapid convective development is expected over highly
saturated soils this afternoon. Anomalous moisture and instability
will support rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour. While
individual cell motions will be fast, cell-training will lead to
localized totals of 2 to 4 inches, making flash flooding likely
given the sensitive antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite imagery and
surface observations indicate rapid destabilization across the
Upper Midwest ahead of an ejecting upper-level trough and
approaching strong cold front. A 40 to 50+ kt southwesterly
low-level jet is fostering intense warm air advection and moisture
transport into the region, resulting in an anomalously moist and
unstable airmass for mid-April (PWATs climbing to ~1.25 inches and
MLCAPE of 1500 to 3000 J/kg).

Convective initiation is expected imminently as the cap erodes,
particularly near surface waves analyzed over north-central IA and
southeast MN which are locally enhancing convergence. Deep-layer
ascent will continue to increase this afternoon and evening as a
strong shortwave/jet streak rounds the base of the trough and
approaches from the west. Convective mode is expected to feature a
mix of supercells and organized multicell clusters.

While strong deep-layer shear (40 to 50+ kts) will promote fast
individual cell motions to the northeast, the southwesterly
steering flow is largely parallel to the low-level jet axis and
lifting warm front. This alignment will strongly favor corridors
of cell-training and repeating rounds of heavy rainfall over the
same areas. High-efficiency updrafts will be capable of producing
1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates, with the 12Z HREF signaling
localized swaths of 2 to 4 inches through 00Z.

The primary driver for the flash flood threat is the highly
sensitive antecedent conditions. Recent NASA SPoRT 0 to 10 cm soil
moisture data indicates very moist if not saturated soils (80 to
100%) across much of the region, and USGS streamflow networks show
running waterways are already elevated. With minimal infiltration
capacity, the intense 1 to 2 inch/hour rates will to convert to
enhanced runoff concerns, and likely promoting scattered areas of
flash flooding which will include some localized urban impacts as
well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9hjs2Z_oHmyo18eoaSQu7i3KoZD9Delq5_o_Aeyu83kiVMQIawM1h87TuD-4LEItpLhN= MhaDX-LNgGe5ulc54SN8dxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...EAX...GRB...ILX...LOT... LSX...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45659058 45318891 44168851 42578857 41148902=20
40108946 39429028 39319154 39769277 40559338=20
41339334 43079263 44399214 45129163=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171904
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180102-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Kansas into
northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171902Z - 180102Z

Summary...Flash flooding is possible as storms expand in coverage
and intensity across the discussion area through 00Z/7p central.

Discussion...Convective initiation has occurred in earnest along a
synoptic front extending from near St. Joseph, MO to near Wichita,
KS over the past half hour. The storms are in an extremely
unstable environment, with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.2-1.5 inch
PW values supporting heavy rainfall. The front and initial
convection was also oriented parallel to deep southwesterly
steering flow aloft, suggestive of areas of training as storms
mature over the next 1-2 hours. The localized training (and
perhaps cell mergers where individual cells can move right of mean
flow) should result in a few spots of 1.5 inch/hr rain rates that
could result FFG exceedance and flash flooding with time.

Trends through the night will ultimately depend on the degree of
convective coverage and any upscale growth into linear segments
that could materialize. Even if the dominant storm mode becomes
linear, local training axes are likely to materialize and enhance
flash flood risk. These trends, along with any potential
development out ahead of the main frontal band, will be monitored
for any corridors of significant flash flood potential through the
evening hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_6urUHJHWAXBLoWXgUTS01fJG-k_8qnlfcUOHJLu-Nf-cVPdz3_l-tPy6jQQo3CpjNI9= 066vCnaiDF9ytCYfuFMT224$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40579404 40529265 39909261 37869402 37089542=20
36999727 37289839 38509719 40219524=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172337
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-180434-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...central/northern Illinois, much of Wisconsin,
upper Peninsula of Michigan, western Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172334Z - 180434Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues especially across
Wisconsin and northern Illinois. This threat will shift eastward
through the evening hours.

Discussion...A mix of linear and clustered convection continues to
migrate east/northeastward across the discussion area. Areas of repeating/training were noted across far southern Wisconsin - and
that area remains sensitive from prior heavy rainfall over the
past several days. FFGs near/downstream of ongoing convection in
southern Wisconsin are in the 1 inch/hr range (locally lower),
with urban impacts from heavy rain expected in the Milwaukee area
over the next 1-2 hours or so. Flash flooding remains likely
there.

Farther north, scattered convection has matured over central
Wisconsin just ahead of a synoptic cold front despite widespread
convective overturning. Instability profiles remain supportive of
strong/deep convection in the short term (next couple hours),
though the longevity of this convection is in question with
eastward extent. Nevertheless, widespread impacts from recent
heavy rain, swollen watersheds, and snow melt have left the region
very sensitive (FFGs near 0 in the UP of Michigan, also <1 inch/hr
elsewhere in parts of northeastern Wisconsin), and localized flash
flooding remains possible.

Cells in the southern part of this elongated conpmex (exiting
southeastern Iowa) are more linear in nature, though a few cells
have developed over west-central Illinois that should merge with
this line over the next few hours. Ground conditions aren't as
sensitive in central Illinois compared to farther north. Flash
flooding may be more isolated/dependent on local rain rate
enhancement from these mergers.

Eventually, this elongated complex will shift eastward through
northeastern Illinois and into western Indiana, with at least
isolated flash flood potential continuing through 05Z/midnight
central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!75sQHgPWBmHMjZ1Iw9XEB_ZKL_6aH3-pygDpV2_kNNOuyft9zc_2YNqGB8JtW2UbmLfK= YzgLHaEoDJkopQwKKRSvHJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DVN...GRB...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT... LSX...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46768913 46698706 46338613 44718704 42648721=20
41438661 40218642 39408761 39449008 40039107=20
40969098 42259046 43959061 45999024=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172339
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-180434-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...central/northern Illinois, much of Wisconsin,
upper Peninsula of Michigan, western Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172334Z - 180434Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues especially across
Wisconsin and northern Illinois. This threat will shift eastward
through the evening hours.

Discussion...A mix of linear and clustered convection continues to
migrate east/northeastward across the discussion area. Areas of repeating/training were noted across far southern Wisconsin - and
that area remains sensitive from prior heavy rainfall over the
past several days. FFGs near/downstream of ongoing convection in
southern Wisconsin are in the 1 inch/hr range (locally lower),
with urban impacts from heavy rain expected in the Milwaukee area
over the next 1-2 hours or so. Flash flooding remains likely
there.

Farther north, scattered convection has matured over central
Wisconsin just ahead of a synoptic cold front despite widespread
convective overturning. Instability profiles remain supportive of
strong/deep convection in the short term (next couple hours),
though the longevity of this convection is in question with
eastward extent. Nevertheless, widespread impacts from recent
heavy rain, swollen watersheds, and snow melt have left the region
very sensitive (FFGs near 0 in the UP of Michigan, also <1 inch/hr
elsewhere in parts of northeastern Wisconsin), and localized flash
flooding remains possible.

Cells in the southern part of this elongate complex (exiting
southeastern Iowa) are more linear in nature, though a few cells
have developed over west-central Illinois that should merge with
this line over the next few hours. Ground conditions aren't as
sensitive in central Illinois compared to farther north. Flash
flooding may be more isolated/dependent on local rain rate
enhancement from these mergers.

Eventually, this elongated complex will shift eastward through
northeastern Illinois and into western Indiana, with at least
isolated flash flood potential continuing through 05Z/midnight
central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9U-h3PbHAPaEvnkDE8b8ojujiT2ikJcvFmDdocidQB9F7rW9CG0HfjZD7aSshrypXflm= 0uVx1ZhowZi6PlF2XOrL6hQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DVN...GRB...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT... LSX...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46768913 46698706 46338613 44718704 42648721=20
41438661 40218642 39408761 39449008 40039107=20
40969098 42259046 43959061 45999024=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180043
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180641-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0118
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
842 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...northern/central/eastern Oklahoma, southeastern
Kansas, southern/central Missouri, northwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180041Z - 180641Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding remain possible
through 06Z/1a central.

Discussion...Ongoing convection has largely organized into an
extensive linear complex extending from near Osage Beach, MO
west-southwestward through Ponca City and Gage, OK. The storms
are mostly undercut by composite synoptic front/outflow, although
a few elements in central Missouri and far north-central Oklahoma
remain surface-based. The storms are migrating eastward between
35-45 knots while exhibiting localized training and areas of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates at times. These rates should be enough for
isolated flash flooding as FFG thresholds are generally in the
1-1.5 inch/hr range especially from north-central Oklahoma
eastward.

Storms will be maintained through the overnight hours by abundant
instability (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and strengthening low-level
flow oriented perpendicular to the aforementioned front/outflow,
maintaining robust updrafts and occasional training. Cells may
tend to weaken some in east-central Missouri, but re-development
over western Oklahoma near a front/dryline intersection should
maintain the heavy rain risk through at least 06Z/1a central
tonight. Flash flooding is expected on at least an isolated basis
where training is most pronounced, with terrain influences in
southwestern Missouri also likely playing a role in enhancing
flash flood risk. Lastly, models suggest that the ongoing
convective band will gradually develop southeastward toward the
I-40 corridor in Oklahoma through the night.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8uiQ__KyH0yp5gD3LVLtiqN8N1vgyEat01kFbc0VsJSyK8Qphlh3hQqt4IJgyiwUMQIe= xQ9i_b7j_xr2DclgdMvU51Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39309207 38969054 37709043 36569135 35499386=20
34529681 34489883 35219970 36259956 36939828=20
37899631 38929406=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181945
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-190145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0119
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181945Z - 190145Z

SUMMARY...Potent thunderstorms capable of producing >2"/hr
rainfall rates over the urbanized communities of southeast TX and
southwest LA could cause localized urban flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and Doppler Radar show a bubbling
field of convection over southeast TX and southwest LA in advance
of an approaching strong cold front. Additional surface based
heating this afternoon will yield over 1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE along
the I-10 corridor. Winds in advance, and in wake, of the cold
front are NErly while winds within the 700-200mb layer are firmly
out of the WSW. This is supporting effective bulk vertical wind
shear levels that the RAP suggests could surpass 40 kts. This
would allow for thunderstorms to have more longevity than typical
"pop-up" or "garden variety" storms. HRRR and RAP area averaged
soundings show warm cloud layers up to 12,000ft deep and skinny
CAPE profiles that found in typical warm rain processes. As 850mb
and 700mb weaken over the region this evening, the concern is for
additional thunderstorm development either along the cold front or
induced by the growing cold pool.

Given the favorable thermodynamic environment and increasing PWs
that reach 2.0" east of Houston this evening, the concern is for

2"/hr rainfall rates that manifest over urbanized environments.

The 12Z HREF does show low-chance probabilities (10-30%) from the
Houston suburbs on east into southwest LA this afternoon and
evening. The vast majority of the expected rainfall over southeast
TX and southwest LA this afternoon is welcomed (severe and extreme
drought for many), which is also evident in the 1-hr FFGs that are
no lower than 2" area wide. That said, the potential for
slow-moving and repeating rounds of storms, combined with
anomalous PWs and ample instability aloft, could cause localized
flash flooding in urbanized settings that contain a greater
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces. Low-lying areas with poor
drainage are also susceptible to flash flooding this afternoon.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9x_hjSr_ftys34SFugzCvxjT-H0aqr-0ltdAUpbxeqrkiGilLjiBwS_-XpRE3GUtr1g_= A55YawAS8oeq-cWzDYFgzAg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30589389 30569330 30069327 29629387 29209491=20
28939574 28839638 28939668 29259658 29709602=20
30369451=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201828
FFGMPD
FLZ000-210015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0120
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Areas affected...southern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201825Z - 210015Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing 2 to 3+
in/hr are expected to impact southern FL over the next 4-6 hours.
While a large portion of the area affected is covered by swamp,
there could be impacts to urban areas along the southwest and
southeastern coast.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface observations and satellite imagery showed
a cold front dropping south across Monroe and Miami-Dade counties
along with sea breeze boundaries along the southwestern and
southeastern FL coastlines. Visible satellite and radar imagery
showed the early stages of thunderstorm development with at least
one developed cell 10-15 miles southwest of Miami. SPC
mesoanalysis data showed MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and PWs of 1.5
to 1.7 inches. Low level flow was from the east to northeast and
deeper layer mean winds were relatively weak from the WNW.

Daytime heating and an apparent lack of CIN across southern FL
will lead to additional rapid thunderstorm development within the
next 1-2 hours along low level convergence boundaries forced by
the cold and sea breeze fronts, and later, subsequent convectively
driven outflow boundaries. Slow movement and brief training of
these cores are likely to produce heavy rainfall rates of 2 to 3+
in/hr with the possibility of storm total rainfall in excess of 5
inches. While the 12Z HREF showed 40 km neighborhood probabilities
of exceeding 3 to 5 inches of 20-40 percent, the likelihood of
these higher rates falling over water or swampland is greater than
that of impacting population centers along the coast. However,
should these higher rates overlap with the Naples/Macro Island
region or east-central Miami-Dade County to the upper Keys, urban
flash flooding will be possible. The flash flood threat is
expected to end from north to south and likely be over with after
00Z as the front moves south of the Peninsula.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8AbXtSs2fP1pYZm6Urke5r5CjAgMjCRLCRbGztQ_qt2Cj4zKjJ7W_3kPEsfLCJ4xBv1L= QWbWIlP__ZXdYNaPHGCKEFU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26368187 26078093 25858011 25258007 24988041=20
25138135 25888205=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201932
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210009-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0121
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Areas affected...Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201929Z - 210009Z

Summary...Additional development of efficient, shallow convection
containing periodic 1.5-2"/hr rainfall rates will maintain the
threat of scattered flash flooding this afternoon over portions of
Central TX.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic over Central TX depicts an area
of slow moving and efficient showers and thunderstorms which has
persisted through the morning and afternoon hours. Over the last
hour or so, a cell within the broader precipitation shield between
San Antonio and San Marcos has exhibited an uptick in hourly
precipitation rates to 1.5-2"/hr, or 0.50-0.63"/15 minutes per
recent observations, MRMS, and KEWX data. When combined with slow
cell storm motions estimated at 10 kts, this storm led to a quick
uptick in CREST Unit Streamflows to 200-600 cfs/smi where a Flash
Flood Warning was recently issued.

This activity is occurring downstream of an approaching
upper-trough and left exit region jet streak in Northern Mexico to
support broad ascent across the region. At the low levels, an axis
of modest 850-700 mb layer convergence and WAA is also noted just
upwind of this activity. ACARS soundings near the heaviest showers
and thunderstorms suggest a very moist and saturated column from
the surface to 600 mb and 400-500 J/kg of MUCAPE to support
efficient collision-coalescence processes in this activity. While
the instability profile is very shallow, it is somewhat higher
than what CAMS are initializing with (100-250 J/kg) in this area,
which could partially explain why the observed rainfall is more
robust than what is modeled. That said, the RAP does suggest the
aforementioned low-level forcing will persist through the
afternoon hours while the upper-trough approaches for the west.
Thus, the threat of scattered flash flooding will continue through
the afternoon as new cells with periodic 1.5-2"/hr rates could
develop and overlap with the area of current heavy rainfall,
leading to additional totals of 2-3".

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6P27gS0htMUt6ruBzVjQGTOBciYb1I84fU-8LYNmHZqsrW2YvQ28M3ERE9FmwAUoPBGt= AyRfqbg7HBFjdj823bTghhI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30409962 30379879 30309766 30009691 29409657=20
28979693 28989818 29339916 29929974=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210026
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210504-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0122
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
825 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Areas affected...Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210024Z - 210504Z

Summary...Additional thunderstorms are developing over portions of South-Central TX this evening. These cells will maintain the
threat of flash flooding as they could train and overlap with
areas of heavy rainfall earlier today.

Discussion...Radar across South-Central TX depicts a rapid
expansion in thunderstorm coverage and intensity along the leading
edge of a shortwave near the Big-Bend of TX. At the same time, an
axis of persistent shallow convection northeast of San Antonio was
finally showing signs of weakening after producing 2-4" of
rainfall this afternoon. This activity was quite impactful earlier
today, and 1-2"/hr rainfall rates led to at least one report of a
swift water rescue near Live Oak TX where CREST Unit Streamflows
eclipsed 900 cfs/smi at times.

With that in mind, the concern is for additional thunderstorms
containing 1-1.5"/hr rainfall rates to expand southwest of San
Antonio, in turn leading to periods of training/repeating near
areas impacted earlier today. This scenario is supported by recent
runs of the HRRR (which is an slow but overall has the best handle
on the situation). Taking into account the timing of the HRRR,
this suggests the threat of scattered flash flooding should
persist through 4-5Z tonight. Localized rainfall amounts of 1-2"
could support additional considerable flash flooding impacts,
especially if they fall atop the areas of heaviest rainfall today
(highlighted in red).

Asherman=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-pgGySLa8E2fX8z1a-v1EJ-5dByc4dC3VwIx7_d_Lp_Oyn3qKBs_LqqdACbFnEkn5076= LY9CTpEWQN9KPvCUyWfLKis$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30109900 30009752 29279747 28959854 29129944=20
29649956=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211000
FFGMPD
TXZ000-211530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0123
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Areas affected...Triangle of Central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211000Z - 211530Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding risk possible given slow
moving/back-building warm-advective shallow but efficient showers/thunderstorms. Rates of 1-1.25"/hr are possible with
localized 2-3" totals.

DISCUSSION...A very effective dynamic environment is helping to
draw above normal moisture into a favorable ascent pattern over
the next few hours across the Triangle of central Texas. GOES-E
WV suite depicts a decaying MCV across southeast TX along the
southeast periphery of favorable mid to upper-level divergent
pattern along the northeast quadrant of a 70kt 3H west to east jet
along/north of 30N. Combined with NW to SE diffluent pattern from
500-250mb providing strong divergence for effective convective
outflow. However, it is also directing strong ageostrophic
forcing by helping to accelerate the early morning western Gulf
jet streak fluxing enhanced low level moisture northward into the
isentropic ascent plane. CIRA LPW along with VWP vectors denote
core of west Gulf jet is propagating 20-25kts in the core of .8 to
1" moisture in the surface to 850mb layer. Combine this with the
axis of 700-500 mid-level moist flow from the subtropical eastern
Pacific results in combined PW values nearing 1.5" near the best
isentropic ascent currently through the San Saba River Valley.

As such, recent 10.3um EIR and RADAR show increasing shallow
convective activity along the NW to SE oriented DPVA into the best diffluence/divergence region downstream. The only limiting factor
is the lack of higher theta-E air resulting in a broader unstable
layer. Currently, it is limited to 100-250 J/kg of MUCAPE but
only expected to increase toward 500 J/kg toward mid-morning as
the core of the western Gulf air reaches the area of concern.=20
Deep layer flux and ascent should allow for solid convergence and
low level precipitation development likely with smaller droplets
in warm-cloud process generation. This should allow for increased
rainfall rates, but without the greater vertical depth, is likely
to be limited to the 1.25" range at max. Convective cells are
likely to move toward the northeast, but with continued south to
southwest low level inflow, propagation vectors should be
supportive of upstream redevelopment/back-building of the shallow
cores. This should allow for increased overall duration to
potentially support highly focused/localized maximum totals of
2-3" through to afternoon.=20

Hydrologically, these maximum totals are at the minimum thresholds
of 1 but more likely 3 hour FFG values in the area, particularly
along the southwest edge of the area of concern. NASA SPoRT LIS
0-40cm soil conditions suggest average saturation around 45-55%
and as such, most rainfall will be beneficial, but an isolated
incident or two of flash flooding is considered possible given the
strong dynamics and setup's history.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_I219mon2hUaIT9iZgkore_06USnlzSqH8nUYqkck59CIiG6-YfaYH-y3ycu4YEpwlLD= 4FbM0lDcXhAwB3fCiFCScWs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32539720 32209657 31769628 31419629 31169645=20
30919666 30589712 30449755 30679836 31159887=20
31779894 32509834=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211535
FFGMPD
TXZ000-212100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0124
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1133 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Areas affected...East central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211533Z - 212100Z

Summary...Slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop across eastern portions of central Texas late this
morning, and are expected to persist going into the early to
middle afternoon hours. Rainfall rates in excess of an inch per
hour may lead to additional instances of flooding through 4 pm
local time.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and GOES-E satellite imagery
continue to indicate a swath of heavy rainfall with embedded
convection, centered mainly between San Saba and Columbus, Texas
late this morning. This is primarily developing as a result of
enhanced ascent from a 700 mb trough axis and mid-level shortwave
intersecting moist 20-30 knot 850 mb southerly flow, and this band
has been maintaining itself over the past few hours with only
limited latitudinal displacement over the morning hours.

The latest CAM guidance suggests the potential for scattered QPF
maxima on the order of 1-3 inches through 21Z, with recent ARW
runs most impressive with up to 4 inches possible during that
time. The soils are becoming increasingly saturated and prone to
additional flooding, with some regions getting 2 to 4 inches in
just the past 12 hours as depicted in the graphic, and flash flood
guidance is dropping in response to this. Even though the
instability parameters are modest and most rainfall rates should
be 1.5 inches per hour or less, some instances of flash flooding
will be possible given the duration of the event.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6rZMdZryMnN1h6U47HcOTCMKMYBmebTgM_8KHuzizEgtqpQj8aSaafmjYcXXKRj4CWEH= y070S3biTHnSDXrWh992LpM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31399745 31079654 30659580 30219534 29699511=20
29059518 28879550 28899585 28989632 29229708=20
29909767 30189812 30509848 30959864 31259830=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222045
FFGMPD
TXZ000-230130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0125
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Areas affected...central TX to middle/upper TX Coastal Plain

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222042Z - 230130Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of central TX into the middle and upper TX Coastal Plain through
the early evening. Localized rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr (locally
higher) will be possible which could lead to runoff problems where
overlap occurs with urban areas or other locations with poor
drainage, especially given above average rainfall over the past
few days.

Discussion...Area radar imagery across southeastern TX at 2015Z
showed scattered thunderstorms across the middle and upper TX
Coastal Plain, mainly east of U.S. Hwy 77. SPC mesoanalysis data
from 20Z showed uninhibited MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and PWs of
1.3 to 1.6 inches across the region. The storms were located
within northwest flow aloft between two vorticity maxima, one over
the Gulf, south of western LA within a region of effective bulk
shear between 30-35 kt, and a second vort max over northeastern
TX. Bulk shear values dropped off significantly to the north and
low level onshore flow between 925-850 mb of less than 15 kt
appeared to be limiting organization over land. However, cell
motions were fairly slow at 5-15 kt and portions of the region
have picked up 2-4 inches of rain over the past 4 days, higher to
the west near I-35.

Therefore, while cells were not very organized, slow movement and
outflow interactions/mergers could result in hourly rainfall of
2-3 inches (perhaps locally higher) and localized totals of 2-4
inches through 01Z. While congealing outflows could result in some
westward migration of activity toward 00Z, the overall footprint
of ongoing storms is not expected to change much over the next few
hours. Isolated higher rainfall maxima could result in flash
flooding should they overlap with more sensitive ground
conditions, whether that be an urban location or locally
hydrologically sensitive area due to recent rainfall.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_3LvrLfgRtViQVo-_a9F6P1Xv6F7kfWFSRPquiOqE_-jVWwsbw2FBSSnmKKdI1qasTBI= rsQcycUFdREyrZbFU_yPA64$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30799449 30649406 30429393 29889416 29389487=20
28859565 28849669 29109711 29429747 29689764=20
29999763 30269730 30379683 30509592 30759510=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232000
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0126
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...northeastern KS, southeastern NE, southwestern
IA, northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231956Z - 240100Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible
from northeastern KS into southeastern NE, western IA and
northwestern MO. Training of thunderstorms will produce hourly
rainfall of 1-2 in/hr with peak rainfall totals of 2-4 inches
possible, through 01Z.

Discussion...1945Z radar imagery showed a broken line of
thunderstorms extending from south-central MN down to the NE/KS
border, just ahead of a cold front. A cyclonic swirl was observed
on visible imagery over northern KS, related to a low to mid-level
vorticity max located just north of the surface triple point.
Strong to severe thunderstorms were ongoing in the vicinity of
Omaha, NE with rapid development noted south of Omaha to the NE/KS
border. SPC mesoanalysis data from 19Z showed 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE from western IA into east-central KS ahead of the cold
front with little to no CIN present.

While thunderstorm activity to the north over western IA continues
to grow and expand downstream toward central IA through 00Z, newer
development to the south is also expected to expand within the
unstable environment ahead of the front and favorably
diffluent/divergent jet pattern aloft. A general eastward
advancement of the line is expected but an inflection or two
within the line of storms is anticipated, allowing for the
increased potential for brief training from the NE/IA border down
into northeastern KS as line orientation matches that of the mean
steering from from the southwest. Elements of training will be
capable of 1-2 in/hr rates and there will be isolated potential
for 2-4 inches through 01Z as the line of thunderstorms advances
off toward the east.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!77pisuZzS7nVKIjm86sEMRBSU92gf0hG8Jrg_GINe5iPA9dGpBPfqkUmC-wLry78e5nO= Fsv2NO7BvOXPtH-oP3LAvqs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41949521 41839435 41249367 39789434 37989595=20
38109739 38699787 39899740 41119655=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240029
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-240600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0127
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
828 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...Upper MS Valley into MN Arrowhead/western U.P. of
MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240027Z - 240600Z

Summary...Widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be
possible across northeastern IA/southeastern and northeastern MN
into WI and the western U.P. of MI over the next 6 hours. Training
of heavy rain is expected to produce 1-2 in/hr rates with isolated
totals in the 1 to 3 inch range.

Discussion...Area radar imagery at 00Z showed an intense squall
line which extended from north-central IA into northeastern KS,
tracking slowly toward the east-northeast. Meanwhile, less
organized convection was noted to the north near western Lake
Superior into central WI along with additional scattered storms in
eastern IA. Estimated MLCAPE from 00Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed
500 to 1500+ J/kg from northeastern IA into the western half of WI
(highest to the south, ahead of the SQLN). MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg
was estimated across the eastern MN Arrowhead, north of a surface
warm front. Aloft, a 90-100 kt jet streak was captured via GOES
East DMV over western MN, with diffluent and divergent winds
within its right-entrance region, likely supporting the recent
uptick in convective activity over eastern IA.

Expectations are for the squall line to continue advancing toward
the ENE, while coverage and intensity increases regarding the
activity from eastern IA into WI, owing to strengthening jet
support in the upper levels. However, one limiting factor for
maintaining convective intensity through the first half of the
night is the forecast for weakening instability with time and with
northern extent. On the other hand, portions of the region have
seen over 300 percent of normal rainfall over the past 2 weeks
which will contribute to quicker runoff from heavy rain. Lingering
snow cover in limited northern locations may also contribute to
excess runoff from added heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2
in/hr within areas of training from northeastern IA into
southeastern MN and portions of western/central WI can be expected
at times, with storm total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches in a couple
of locations. These widely scattered instances of heavier rainfall
could lead to flash flooding within portions of the Upper MS
Valley through ~06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6kgfqTSwxWwKfzCXp6PG-UAyu1foOIh4ilYhnayi2dXgpRbpViVpumX8fci7fSoUunxJ= twj7iBcBPU6tjsc2DwGSc9s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48228962 47748933 45408862 43648935 42109078=20
41619219 42109326 43829283 45429220 47259153=20
48209035=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240111
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-240630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0128
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
910 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...southeastern KS, northeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240109Z - 240630Z

Summary...A focused region of flash flooding is expected to set up
over portions of southeastern KS into northeastern OK through 06Z.
Slow movement/training of cells will lead to hourly rainfall of 1
to 3 inches and storm total rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches over the
next few hours.

Discussion...Area radar imagery across the central Plains at 01Z
showed two intense areas of slow moving convection. First over
eastern KS, over and just northeast of Wichita and a second area
over northern OK, bisecting I-35. The northern cluster of storms
was near the triple point (near ICT) and was associated with an
outflow boundary which intersected to the west, at the triple
point. Both areas have been associated with training and resided
within a very unstable environment with MLCAPE estimated in the
2500-3500 J/kg range (00Z SPC mesoanalysis and 00Z OKC sounding).
Fading visible imagery showed cloud streets oriented with the low
level inflow, south to north, into the northern OK thunderstorms.
The eastern KS/OK border lay beneath a diffluent upper level jet
pattern, favorable for increased ascent over the region.

As the low level jet continues to increase with the diurnal cycle,
exceeding 50 kt over northeastern OK by 03-04Z (recent RAP
forecasts), overrunning of the storm-generated cold pools should
continue to support convective regeneration along the southwestern
flank of the system with WSW to ENE training, while overall
southward propagation occurs gradually with time. The low level
flow is expected to veer by ~06Z which should allow the convective
cluster to advance eastward away from its current initiation point
along the dryline. However, up until that happens, locally heavy
rainfall is expected to support areas of flash flooding with total
rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_4IhhlNU2-TD0lf6iOAtxNfWHMxiBhR6ZzQMqDoUwtb1AoqbV-UaP8nALEjLyD8ddVPY= CTr8DwZ8JwE5hBk8Xurdt5A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38339621 38269564 37749511 37399499 36559504=20
35959602 35739762 35999840 36709810 37739759=20
38179690=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161951
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-170130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0173
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern Illinois...Southern Indiana ...adjacent
Northwest Kentucky...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161950Z - 170130Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for subtle heavy rainfall style
event or two given proximity to mid-level shortwave center passing
to southeast.

DISCUSSION...19z surface analysis denotes a weak surface wave just
southeast of St. Louis, MO sitting along a stationary thermal
boundary, reinforced by early morning rainfall/outflow. CIRA LPW
suite (oblique polar pass) shows a small pool of enhanced boundary
level to 500mb moisture along combined with upper 60s and low 70s
Tds through S IL/S IND, bringing a small pocket of overall totals
over 1.75" within a favorable southwesterly to west-southwesterly
WAA 925-850mb flow regime increasing moisture flux convergence
along it. While cloud cover has been generally dense this morning
into early afternoon, some clearing and broken insolation has seen
temps into the low 80s, particularly downstream into NW KY/S IND,
resulting in a narrow west to east axis of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE that
is becoming increasingly uncapped.

GOES-E WV suite along with visible loop, shows a small mid-level
shortwave twist to the cloud pattern over NW KY that is expected
to continue a east-northeast progression further providing larger
scale ascent, especially downstream. However, aloft, RAP analysis
denotes a strong divergence signal at the far right entrance to
the jet streak over the Great Lakes across central IL, along the
northwest periphery of the shortwave. The combination of all
factors is supporting initial break out of deeper updrafts (rapid
cooling and expansion of these clusters/cells shows potential
instability of the broader area). So low level WAA/convergence
should help feed the updrafts with slow eastward movement given
15-20kts of deep mean steering flow, but overall inflow from the
west-southwest results in favorable propagation vectors for
back-building and or slowing of the forward progression of
clusters that due develop mainly because of the proximity on the
NW side of the mid-level shortwave. As a result there is good
potential for increased residency of stronger/broader moist
updrafts capable of 1.5-2"/hr rates. Localized totals of 2.5-3"
are possible.

Stronger cells with greater coverage are expected downstream/east
of the shortwave but should be forward propagating quicker;
however, these rates/quick totals of up to 1" could set the stage
for the slower moving upstream allowing repeating. While the
overall Midwest has been dry, NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture
values of 50-65% across the area of concern, which is much higher
than surrounding areas (not including this morning's rainfall
tracks). So with FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 2-2.5"/3hrs, and
proximity to flash flood prone cities like Evansville/Louisville
there is sufficient potential for a localized incident or two of
possible flash flooding through late afternoon/evening across the
area of concern.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!497FomLp5UQm8ELrJMqWCK5KLr8wHwkWmjbAMOrKtiJSJGuJBZPcDRxdQwKFWbxiyYxg= P9lrIiE-5I43OJ3RgHbNsxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39598784 39508661 39328518 38868469 38278474=20
37838551 37738654 37658748 37658849 37748931=20
38118978 38618992 39198967 39518904=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162121
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-170315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0174
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
520 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...Northern MO...Southwest IA...Ext. Southeast
NEB...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162120Z - 170315Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, back-building thunderstorms with 1.75-2"/hr
rates will support mergers and repeating through the evening
hours. Localized 3-4" totals are probable with isolated 5"+
possible. Flash flooding is considered possible, given recent dry
conditions may help mitigate moderate rainfall totals.

DISCUSSION...21z surface analysis depicts a weak surface wave near
Nebraska City, generally at the western extent of the deeper
moisture plume across the Central U.S. Deep southwesterly flow
aloft is providing broad scale ascent and lowering surface
pressures in the lee of the Rockies and driving a broad strong
southerly LLJ across the Plains and Ozark Plateau. This
moisture/higher theta-E air is generally mid-80s over upper
60s/low 70s Tds, supporting total PWats near 1.5" and with
southwesterly flow aloft, resulting in steepening lapse rates,
supportive of 3000-3500 MLCAPE across E KS into NW MO.=20=20

The surface low resides at the apex of a broader surface SW to NE
trough with the frontal boundary extending along the KS/NEB
boarder before angling northeast across south central IA into S
WI. A more important outflow boundary from last night/this
morning's convection has effectively become a deeper thermal
boundary/warm front from near CSQ in IA dropping south across
north-central MO toward KCOU before turning E across S IL. As
such, the southerly surface to 700mb southerly flow is ascending
isentropically across is boundary resulting in the first bands of
deeper convection across north-central MO. Overall, vigor remains
a bit limited but will further aid in steepening the
boundary/isentropes over the next few hours, increasing deep layer
moisture convergence. As the LLJ strengthens, flux convergence
will help to broaden updrafts and rainfall efficiency as the
overall moisture pool increases to 1.75" TPW toward 23z. Overall
coverage and broadening updrafts will allow for cells to increase
to 1.75"/hr rates with occasional 2-2.25" occurring and localized
2.5" for eventual short-term mergers.=20=20

The concern toward and after 00z, will be the broadening of the
500-1000mb thickness lines, reducing forward propagation and
bending steering flow a bit more south of due east further
increasing convergence, though this will be concurrent with
strengthening upstream inflow turning propagation vectors
southwest with time, allowing for higher potential of an
individual cell's residency and/or repeating tracks. Eventually,
back-building toward southeast NEB. A broad swath of 2-5" is
becoming more probable across this area with 18z HREF probability
of 70-90% of 3"/6hrs along/near the intersection of the
fronts/outflow along the IA/MO line. This is likely to shift
(more likely south and west given trends); the 'good news' is the
area has very high FFG values (2.5"/hr; 3-4"/3hrs) due to
prolonged dry spring with 0-40cm Soil Moisture around 25-30%,
though areas nearer the Missouri River and portions of SW IA are a
bit more moist and have lower FFG values. Still, the overall
rainfall and rates are still possible to induce widely scattered
to scattered incidents of flash flooding through 03z. Please note:
further upstream development over the Higher Central Plains is
likely to roll through later into the overnight period (after
03z), so at best, this round will only wet the upper soil column
for those cells later too, a subsequent MPD may be required.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9VcXlr9_PjGyMcyHRwzaSKTnfhvLyeyW1M46Y6h_NlSaMkIhxNXPTJ7sbEeIN-kF0ZwC= aRfQxuA7aCSzyGbrlskHsqw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41479517 41439361 40519263 39679173 38959238=20
39259379 40199563 40589631 41069611=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170035
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-170600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0175
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
834 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Portions of Northwest
Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170035Z - 170600Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving super-cells becoming localized heavy rain
producers, before main upstream cluster/MCS puts final additional
heavy burst to exceed very dry ground conditions for a widely
scattered incident or two of localized possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...00z surface and RAP boundary layer analysis depict a
very tight moisture stream along and south of well defined
stationary front that extends from active convection in SE IA and
through southern NEB from south of Lincoln to Hastings to Holdrege
before angling toward expanding progressive cluster, developing
MCS coming out of NW KS. Strong surface pressure falls upstream
has accelerated near boundary layer easterly flow increasing low
level moisture profile as noted in CIRA LPW even through the
700-500mb layer, with the 1.5" total PWat starting to nose as far
west as south-central NEB. Surface southerly flow backing with
height has provided solid low level moisture convergence given Tds
rising into the low 60s, with some trapped moisture on the
north-side of the boundary into the mid-60s as far east as Grande
Island, NEB; reducing sub-cloud evaporation. As such, recent
trends in KDP analysis show increasing degrees/KM suggesting
additional higher rainfall rates with reducing near or sub-zero
values for 'large hail' signatures strongly suggesting increasing
rainfall efficiency over the last hour or so.=20

Overall RADAR coverage of convective cores has increased as well
given numerous left splitting super-cell structures; but with the
updraft rotation, forward propagation has slowed mainly for the
right movers to increase residency . While rain-rates are still
likely inflated due to hail contamination, hourly rates of 1.5-2"
are becoming more probable given the increasing moisture flux
convergence due to isallabaric effects. Localized totals of
1.5-2.5" are becoming increasingly possible but narrowly focused
along and just north of the stationary front. However, the strong
drought in the region is resulted in very dry conditions and
allowing for a solid uptake of those totals, but the rates may
still be a tad to great locally, resulting in some spots of
localized flash flooding potential. This will only be exacerbated
as the upstream MCS cluster sweeps up/merges with the remaining
super-cells through the early overnight period across
south-central NEB, with a sub-hourly burst of .75-1" in 15 minutes
per recent HRRR output resulting in spot or two of 2-3" values
which is in the range of 1 to 3hr FFG exceedance and localized
flash flooding is therefore considered possible, more so eastward
through the MPD area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4XlChmG_LE-3luG20gQb4qjwQH7bwTkdmvJOtRUNDq3vcXB-1_eD2fJKOb0yKc6dWZMA= vAczv6JUWFHWDSMDeuaQPHE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41779746 41589658 41009601 40599586 40109621=20
40059743 39919950 39590085 40280134 40880070=20
41239990 41649855=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170331
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-170720-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0176
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...middle MO RIver to middle MS River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170328Z - 170720Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain likely across
portions of southeastern NE, northeastern KS into southwestern IA
and northwestern MO over the next couple of hours. Locations
farther east may also experience flash flooding. Peak hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches can be expected.

Discussion...An axis of thunderstorms was oriented roughly west to
east at 03Z, extending from southeastern NE into northwestern and
northern MO, with a slow moving MCV in north-central MO along the
eastern flank of the MCS. A Flash Flood Emergency was recently
issued for Grundy County, including the city of Trenton where ~6
to 8 inches of rain has fallen with embedded hourly rainfall over
3 inches (and 2.5 inches in 30 minutes) at times. Back to the
west, thunderstorm coverage was increasing over the southeastern
quadrant of NE, in advance of a forward propagating line segment
advancing along the central NE/KS border.

The activity was largely elevated atop a remnant outflow boundary
which extended ESE from southeastern NE, just south of STJ into
north-central MO. MUCAPE values were 2000-3000 J/kg via 03Z SPC
mesoanalysis data and 850 mb VAD wind data at KTWX showed
strengthening flow between 00-03Z (30 to 55 kt) with further
strengthening to near 60 kt possible by 06Z. Aloft, flow was
fairly diffluent/divergent to the south of an 80-100 kt upper jet
max north of the region. Sufficient shear and instability will
sustain a mixture of supercells and multicells with a combination
of slow cell motions, mergers and training leading to high hourly
rainfall, locally in excess of 3 inches possible over the next 2-4
hours.

There are signs in the recent hires guidance that the pattern will
be disrupted toward 06-07Z, in advance of the forward propagating
line segment over the NE/KS border as increasing southerly flow
and forcing shifts northward of the present axis. However, prior
to that time, another 3-4 hours of locally heavy rain with areas
of flash flooding will remain likely with an additional 3-5 inches
of rain possible through 07Z, with a focus in and around the MO
River Valley.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!760uQl1ohFv2KU1K6qPWh_0aJfvHwirl-l3LZ2hyyMw3Tv0DIsmmzLmmfVFlqTOOG4jb= 94fPrgL7u0SXf38ulDn2Wj4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41519233 41169114 39849151 39449302 39519515=20
39959703 40439746 40809729 41219669 41429459=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170338
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-170720-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0176...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1137 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Corrected for adjustment to capitalization in areas affected

Areas affected...middle MO River to middle MS River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170328Z - 170720Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain likely across
portions of southeastern NE, northeastern KS into southwestern IA
and northwestern MO over the next couple of hours. Locations
farther east may also experience flash flooding. Peak hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches can be expected.

Discussion...An axis of thunderstorms was oriented roughly west to
east at 03Z, extending from southeastern NE into northwestern and
northern MO, with a slow moving MCV in north-central MO along the
eastern flank of the MCS. A Flash Flood Emergency was recently
issued for Grundy County, including the city of Trenton where ~6
to 8 inches of rain has fallen with embedded hourly rainfall over
3 inches (and 2.5 inches in 30 minutes) at times. Back to the
west, thunderstorm coverage was increasing over the southeastern
quadrant of NE, in advance of a forward propagating line segment
advancing along the central NE/KS border.

The activity was largely elevated atop a remnant outflow boundary
which extended ESE from southeastern NE, just south of STJ into
north-central MO. MUCAPE values were 2000-3000 J/kg via 03Z SPC
mesoanalysis data and 850 mb VAD wind data at KTWX showed
strengthening flow between 00-03Z (30 to 55 kt) with further
strengthening to near 60 kt possible by 06Z. Aloft, flow was
fairly diffluent/divergent to the south of an 80-100 kt upper jet
max north of the region. Sufficient shear and instability will
sustain a mixture of supercells and multicells with a combination
of slow cell motions, mergers and training leading to high hourly
rainfall, locally in excess of 3 inches possible over the next 2-4
hours.

There are signs in the recent hires guidance that the pattern will
be disrupted toward 06-07Z, in advance of the forward propagating
line segment over the NE/KS border as increasing southerly flow
and forcing shifts northward of the present axis. However, prior
to that time, another 3-4 hours of locally heavy rain with areas
of flash flooding will remain likely with an additional 3-5 inches
of rain possible through 07Z, with a focus in and around the MO
River Valley.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6lp2bl8r2tBWDmKe5Xs-dZIdDzoRrojlanQquKmErPU2Z8lJDHRJW0g96IdmGe4yQwmJ= 1N4HSrlVSjiky8mbFPXahyE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41519233 41169114 39849151 39449302 39519515=20
39959703 40439746 40809729 41219669 41429459=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170747
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-171300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0177
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...western IA/MO border into IA and southwestern
WI/northwestern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170745Z - 171300Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will remain a possibility
through 13Z (8 AM CDT) from the western IA/MO border into IA and
the MS River near the WI/IL border. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches
and localized peak rainfall of 2-4 inches can be expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery across the middle MO River Valley
showed a convectively induced vorticity max along the southern
NE/IA border at 0715Z associated with an eastward bowing line
segment crossing into southwestern IA and northwestern MO. Areas
of stratiform rain preceded and followed the bowing segment (which
has shown signs of weakening over the past 30 minutes), along with
a few stronger cells near the MO/IA border. However, trends in
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall showed a reduction in the coverage
and intensity of high rain rates since 05Z as convective
development just north of a remnant outflow boundary draped across
northern MO has reduced.

Short term forecasts from the RAP indicate the shortwave/vorticity
max along the southern NE/IA border will track northeastward over
the next 3-6 hours. Low level overrunning of the remnant
outflow/effective front in northern MO will continue as the
mid-level circulation advances toward the northeast beneath
diffluent and divergent flow in the upper levels. Elevated
instability of 500 to 1000+ J/kg was estimated over southern IA
via the 07Z SPC mesoanalysis but these values fall off quickly to
the north with only modest northward advancement of the elevated
instability pool through 13Z forecast. Over the next 3-6 hours,
there will continue to be the potential for short term training
with 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour and localized potential for
2-4 inches through 13Z (8 AM CDT), located near the track of the
shortwave. While the expected potential for heavy rain over the
next few hours will be north of areas that experienced flooding
earlier tonight in northern MO, portions of IA have received 1 to
3 inches of rain over the past 48 hours which may contribute to
isolated runoff where overlap of additional heavy rain occurs.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4GSUKMFNjbMh4tO-hoxs6y7pFNqyNKqPmwEgSMHZiECgN2PqEkh6QnZ4Xi3mrGDOUgHH= BdM-up4CIAjmW8DM5mtEfF0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...LOT...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43059094 42929044 42488989 41958968 41528997=20
41139078 40659201 40059360 40149525 40569575=20
41139579 42069401 42789210=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171959
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-180200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0178
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast SD...Eastern NEB...Western IA...Far
Southwest MN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172000Z - 180200Z

SUMMARY...Increasing available moisture to support higher rainfall
efficiency over the next few hours (up to 2"/hr). Progressive
nature may be a limiting factor, but cells will move into a bit
more prone to FF due to recent rains (esp. South).

DISCUSSION...19z surface analysis depicts the very dynamic
environment in place across the Plains this afternoon (given broad southwesterly flow aloft). The southern stream shortwave last
evening that has progressed into the Great Lakes helped to
reinforce a tight moisture gradient along the primary west to east
from from a weak wave in E IA back across central IA to a surface
wave near an strong cluster of thunderstorms with a history of
hail and forward progression. CIRA LPW and RAP analysis shows a
tight, enhanced moisture plume along and south of the boundary
generally denoted by agitated Cu field (NE NEB, into central IA)
opposed by north where transverse banding shows the greater
stabilized area that is a bit drier as well across far NW IA into
SW MN. Enhanced Tds in through 850mb along with slightly backed
flow for solid moisture flux transport toward the surface low
along/ahead of main cold front NE of O'Neil, Neb.

Solid low level directional convergence has aided maintenance of
the cluster with strong deep layer moisture convergence signals
denoting the flux. As the cluster reaches the deeper moisture
axis, expectation is both increased moisture loading to the
updrafts helping to broaden downdrafts as well as increase
rainfall efficiency. Rapid refresh guidance including the HRRR
and WoFS solutions denote this uptick in the next hour or so with
sub-hourly intense rates expected; with 15-minute HRRR totals over
1-1.25" while 5-minute rates in the WoFS over .5", as high as .75"
consistently across SE SDAK. Deep layer steering and cold frontal
push are likely to limit residency time but some eastward
development along the frontal/theta-E axis may break out
additional downstream cells to help with some repeating to reach
higher required totals to induce widely scattered incidents of
flash flooding (2-3" in 1-3hrs).=20=20

Further expansion of the convection toward the south along and
north of the stronger 995mb surface low along the NEB/KS will come
as embedded shortwave in the deeper southwesterly flow approaches
and upper-level diffluence increases into a developing north-south
jet streak placing much of the area of concern in favorable
divergence/outflow environment aloft in the right entrance of said
jet streak.

Hydrologically, much of the area remains in solid drought with
0-40cm ratios in the 20-30%, though scattered activity last night
did wet a few areas, especially south and east across E NEB and
through the Missouri River Valley. As noted, above the
progressive nature will likely limit the overall coverage of flash
flooding, but the shear intensity with some repeating and possible
intersection with those wetter upper soils, suggest widely
scattered flash flooding is possible this evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7dwM4qPIPaCm2epJ080lGFFhouAWdHzoYRclS2vg1hWL3BJR43tAvrJ_2Un0Mvx5YDMj= I4jqP5Dz8fofqhCJ4bf1SEg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44499698 44179587 43629534 42319568 41069591=20
40489702 40519934 40929935 41569836 42459794=20
42909829 43449867 44209800=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180059
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-180600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0180
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...Northern Iowa...Southern Minnesota...Parts of
Northwest Wisconsin...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180100Z - 180600Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective coverage and increasing moisture
flux into expanding convective clusters/small MCS features support
potential for repeating and spots of 2-4". Localized flash
flooding remains possible through the early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depict broad long-wave trough across
the Inter-mountain West with broad southwesterly flow downstream
across the Plains. At the apex an expanding convective complex
shows strong diffluent outflow pattern at the right entrance to
strengthening jet streak aloft providing broad scale ascent as
well as strengthening of a broad south-southwest LLJ. At the
surface the northern surface low/apex of a tight and deep inverted
surface trough is crossing out of SE SDAK into MN while drawing a
well defined warm front northward. CIRA LPW and RAP analysis
notes that core of western Gulf moisture is finally arriving
northward along and east of the advancing cold front that extends
from the surface low back across eastern NEB. The cluster in SW
MN has a very long history of severe and strong isallobaric
backing influence to maximize moisture flux pulled along and north
of the surface front, supporting intense but short-term rainfall
rates near 1.5-2"/hr mostly falling in 15-30 minutes. However,
given the stronger LLJ and isentropic ascent, downstream
convection is filling along and northeast where convergence is
maximized. Deep layer steering flow will allow for some repeating
of the cores to increase intense rainfall duration over 1-2 hours
allowing for localized totals to reach 2-3" values.=20

In addition, a second complex north of a secondary low across NE
NEB has seen a similar rapid cooling of the cirrus canopy with
numerous overshooting tops; deeper moisture pool has also
broadened the downdrafts width as the line matures into a larger
linear convective complex. While there is a general eastward
propagation, RADAR and satellite trends suggest there is also a
potential to repeat/track through similar areas of the northern
cluster across portions of S MN/N IA. Recent WoFS runs helps to
confirm this as mean and 90th percentile qpf suggest 2.5-5"
maximum swath is possible. This provides some confidence that
spots of 2-4" are becoming increasingly possible through the early
overnight period.=20

While NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture fields show drought is solid
with ratios running from 25% in NW IA to near 40% in south-central
MN toward the Twin Cities, the FFG values suggest 1hr rates of
1.5"/hr and less than 2.5"/3hr could result in flash flooding. If
that is the case, incidents of flash flooding are possible, but
given the overall drought conditions would be looking to smaller
localized incident or two where rates can reach closer to
1.75-2"/hr, where infiltration would be reduced from the shear
amount too fast. So given the overall pattern/trends, flash
flooding continues to be considered possible across the MPD area
of concern tonight.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6z3vCw4cBcd06sL2vpD6Yb8HccNxiHhZwedU4szunbouCqvjgG3v_xalByDNTvfqKBz2= SOYEEzqR1bhyP_Oz3PWcFVo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45259218 44609139 43359219 42549394 42299574=20
42559638 43409586 44359487 45209331=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180026
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0179
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
825 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast NEB...Southwest IA...Northwest
MO...Central to Northeast KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180025Z - 180600Z

SUMMARY...Training/Back-building cells at apex of dry slot will be
slow moving while higher moisture flux cells northward will track
through areas of recently saturated grounds with rates of 1.5"/hr
and spots of 2-3" totals, pose widely scattered incident or two of
flash flooding into early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...00z surface analysis depicts a very deep, but narrow
surface trough extending from a surface low in SE SD, southward to
a 993mb low just south of the central NEB/KS border at the nose of
an equally narrow but very dry slot; simultaneously, a strong
northern stream cold front is dropping southeastward from the low
resulting is a very strong surface to boundary layer flow with a
broad area of 20 to 30kts from the south slowly backing toward the
frontal zone. This results is a long axis of strong moisture flux
convergence, especially across SE NEB where Tds are in the high
60s, tipping toward the low 70s across the Missouri River into
IA/N MO. While the solid EML is well denoted in the CIRA LPW
850-700mb layer across much of this areas, return moisture
wrapped around the apex of the tight inverted trough, is pooled
along the approaching cold front. So while the steep lapse rates
are supporting MLCAPEs of 3000-4000 J/kd across E KS into SE NEB,
there is some entrainment of higher moisture and stronger
thunderstorms are starting to moisten the mid-layer profile and
overall rainfall efficiency is starting to increase and will do so
after sunset.

Coincident with the inverted trough is a tight 500-1000mb
thickness ridge the becomes a bit more divergent in isoheight
lines along and east of the trough axis. This supports reduced
forward propagation vectors, especially near the surface low and
south across central KS and with deep layer fairly unidirectional
flow from the SW, may allow for training/repeating across this
area while cells/clusters further north will start propagating east-northeastward at a more reasonable rate across E NEB into IA.
Evaporative loss will limit extreme rates, though the moisture
flux on the 30+kt inflow should support 1.5"/hr with an
occasionally uptick to 1.75"+, and may be slightly higher due to
ingest of smoke particulates from the prairie fires in Clark and
Meade counties.

Northward in SE NEB and along the IA/MO border, the heavy rainfall
last evening has brought FFG values into a range (1-1.5"/hr
<2"/3hrs) that may be locally exceeded with the clusters moving
east, suggesting a scattered incident or two of flash flooding
will be possible through early overnight period. Southward across
central KS, the unidirectional steering and upwind propagation may
allow for increased residency; so while this area's soil
conditions are very dry, the prolonged nature of rainfall with
localized spots of 2-4" may also result in localized FF. (Note: a
backyard observation near Dorrance, KS in E Russell county saw
just below 2" in the last hour). So all considering, a few spots
of flash flooding are considered possible across the MPD area of
concern through the overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5IInHaJaZZMwD3wa0TaLpebr92Hz9Aevw48MwlnPPZbxy9I-twDjBNXJPhPeOPj8Va6D= _El-L9tZjN8AHI9Tq73wSfU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42169490 42079412 41929340 41309302 40119334=20
39529611 38429803 38269948 38889946 39559824=20
40669796 41839753 42149622=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180614
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-181016-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...central/eastern KS into western MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180612Z - 181016Z

Summary...Flash flooding is likely to focus in one or two
locations from central to eastern KS into western MO through 10Z.
Training will likely result in 1-2 in/hr rates (locally higher)
with additional totals over 4 inches possible through 10Z on an
isolated basis.

Discussion...06Z radar imagery showed that an axis of elevated
thunderstorms extended from near LYO, ENE into northwestern MO
near MCI, just north and west of an outflow boundary. Training of
thunderstorms in central KS has resulted in MRMS-derived rainfall
of 3 to 9 inches over the past 6 hours from southern Rush County
into northwestern Ottawa County, though some of that could be high
due to hail contamination. However, there was at least one
Wunderground PWS with 7.26" to the southwest of Lincoln ending
0555Z.

Current satellite trends in IR imagery showed the coldest cloud
tops were slowly shifting east, coinciding with an area of strong
upper level jet induced divergence and diffluence tied to a
strengthening jet max extending from the west-central KS/NE border
into the lower Northern Plains.

A strong southerly low level jet of 50 to 65+ kt was seen in VAD
wind plots at 850 mb from northern OK into southern KS, lifting
atop the outflow boundary, with deeper layer wind vectors
supporting SW to NE training at times. Steep mid-level lapse rates
of 8-9 C/km were observed in 00Z soundings at OKC, TOP and SGF,
supporting MUCAPE values between 3000 and 4000 J/kg. Veering of
the low level jet through 10Z is forecast, as the outflow boundary
likely continues to advance southeastward, supporting continued
elevated thunderstorms with areas of training.

While increased convective inhibition with southward extent may
limit how far south convection will reach, inhibition for
locations farther east is forecast to remain weak. Therefore,
while flash flooding is not expected to be widespread, areas of
training are likely to focus high rain rates and focused flash
flooding from central to eastern KS into far western MO through
10Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_RvCK6VLD4SB8BJ7eXu9AFwKpyKQrJlac0mfDlhgLRBiWn6vCF-Guud2ENHWy1mM4cp= KrE-2EKhci4PgDhqBTBD8ak$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40009416 39409365 38369394 37779489 37539666=20
37369932 38089966 38849841 39509698 39779589=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181003
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-181500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0182
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
602 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...eastern KS into western/southwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181000Z - 181500Z

Summary...While some uncertainty remains, concerns are increasing
for possible flash flooding later this morning over
western/southwestern MO into portions of eastern KS. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and 3 to 4 inches in 3 hours will be
possible through 15Z (10 AM CDT).

Discussion...0930Z radar imagery and surface observations showed
that the southwestern end of an elongated outflow boundary has
stalled over central KS, while it continued to steadily advance
southeastward through MO. Showers and thunderstorms continued to
develop on the cool side of the boundary over eastern KS and
central MO as a strong southerly low level jet (LLJ) over KS/OK/MO
overruns the well-defined boundary. While the LLJ has weakened and
veered some over the central KS/OK border (less favorable angle to
the outflow boundary), some recent strengthening was observed at
the KINX VAD wind at 09Z to over 70 kt (but it as backed off a bit
since then). Meanwhile, disorganized shower/thunderstorm activity
has picked up over the past 45 minutes over southwestern MO,
perhaps aided by lift ahead of a vort max observed lifting NNE
from the southern OK/AR border on water vapor imagery. Steep
mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8+ C/km were contributing to sizable
MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg from southeastern KS into central MO. Aloft,
flow remained highly diffluent between the polar and sub-tropical
jet streams aloft.

While recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS have struggled to properly
handle the outflow boundary's southward propagation, they have
been consistent with an uptick in convective vigor over the next
3-6 hours, favoring the southwestern flank of the outflow near the
southern KS/MO border. It is here that the LLJ (though weakening)
will focus from northeastern OK into southwestern MO into and atop
the KS/MO outflow boundary. The environment will favor training
with 1 to 2+ inches of rain in an hour and potential for 3 to 4
inches of rain in 3 hours or less. While flash flood guidance is
quite high over much of the region, some limited/isolated flash
flood potential will exist through 15Z and perhaps continue into
the early afternoon.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_UvjHrcgw5M0uUTr5HEaIVMm2x5FP0eHz_MxqwBVy80NNb9mokYis-w2AcVN15ETHQ0n= veVfgwkacB-bhK5SD-Y-Bp0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39039508 39009309 38669248 38179217 37279244=20
36919354 37219542 37739683 37789774 38199784=20
38789717 38949649=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181536
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-182134-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...southern/central Missouri through southern
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181534Z - 182134Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall will likely continue through 21Z along
and north of the I-44 corridor, with areas of flash flooding
possible.

Discussion...A mature, elongated MCS continues to provide areas of
training thunderstorms along an axis from near Fort Scott,
KS/Nevada, MO east-northeastward through Saint Louis Metro and
into south-central Illinois. The MCS has become a bit more
perpendicular to southwesterly low-level flow (around 40-45 kts at
850mb), supporting repeating/training convection. The elevated
nature of the convection suggests seems to have limited rainfall
rates to only around 1 inch/hr in a few spots. However, the
persistence of convection (likely supported by an approaching
shortwave from the Arkansas Ozarks) should likely continue
reinforcing the mature cold pool and resulting in several more
hours of occasionally heavy rainfall.

While rain rates may not breach 1-hr FFG thresholds on a
widespread basis, it appears possible that 2.5 inch/3-hr rates
could be achieved at times along this axis. This should result in
at least isolated flash flood potential - particularly in any
low-lying and urban parts of the discussion area. Again, the
rainfall/flash flood potential will likely continue through at
least 21Z/4p CDT.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6d_3BeLUcvVriflbiqgnKPI48aIn6bliiJ9cBiWF2GKyCR4mpyal7mOikjM5djhbmbbh= Q07Cwkwiypv0XwgJRbycXQc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40018956 39938838 39348784 38518808 37868904=20
37189093 37139355 37549452 38229469 38749458=20
39069390 39649156=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181721
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-182320-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0184
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of Indiana, far southeast Illinois, and
far southwest Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181720Z - 182320Z

Summary...Flash flood potential is increasing especially across
central and southern Indiana.

Discussion...A mature convective complex was making steady
eastward progress into western and central Indiana over the past
hour per radar mosaic imagery. The southern flank of this MCS was
oriented more of a WSW-ENE fashion over southern Illinois, leading
to areas of training. Furthermore, a shortwave trough evident in satellite/objective analyses over northern Arkansas was helping to
initiate convection along and south of the leading edge of the
MCS, with several areas of mergers and 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates
(per MRMS) estimated southwest of Terra Haute (just south of
Effingham).

The overall scenario for flash flooding will translate eastward
through the afternoon, with occasional spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain
rates where training/merging is most pronounced. The rates will
fall on areas of wet soils from prior rainfall, with FFG
thresholds of 1.5 inch/hr at risk of being exceeded on at least an
isolated basis. Low-level flow drops off considerably with
eastward extent into Ohio, which lends some doubt/uncertainty on
eastward persistence of convection. Should the convective complex
remain organized, slightly lower FFGs over Ohio would suggest a
continued, yet isolated flash flood threat there.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4L-CrEcpou9u14sn7VEarQ3qO4exrqegjdwzFRPD68CCfI-emlXJAst9ApVJY7-mAc9U= 9H4CbQL__YxCqgffEW0YHDc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40438600 40438459 40228421 39648397 39128462=20
38388651 38438819 39668793 40078728=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181846
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0185
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...Central and Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast
Nebraska...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181845Z - 190000Z

SUMMARY...Severe Super-cells will have significant moisture flux
convergence to support localized rates over 2"/hr. Given
compromised upper soil conditions, localized flash flooding
conditions are considered possible in proximity to other severe
weather hazards.

DISCUSSION...SPC MCD 771 solidly describes the mesoscale setup to
produce strong updrafts and super-cell structures through the
afternoon period. Strong updrafts supported by MLCAPEs in excess
of 3500 J/kg; while driven by steep/dry lapse rates are also being
fed in the surface to boundary layer by well above average
moisture values (CIRA LPW values are at period of record
[2013-present] maximum values for most of the area). Values in
the .75-1" range confirmed by surface Tds of upper 60s to low 70s
are being advected at greater than 20-25kts into the front.=20
Surface low west of KCNK has backed the flow slightly to increase
surface moisture convergence/flux to very strong values. Combined
through depth and IVT values are well over 1000 kg/m/s per CW3E
plots.

Convective initiation is occurring near the surface wave and
southward through the cold front to around KGRD. Strong SRH will
allow for convective mode for super-cell structures, likely with
broad updrafts/downdrafts and given slight right turning, should
reduce forward cell motions increasing residency time.=20
Additionally, the isallobaric influences will further accelerate
inflow and moisture flux convergence to overcome modest overall
deep moisture (~1.5 TPW, currently), but will steadily increase to
support 2"/hr rates...with HRRR 15-minute rainfall totals forecast
in excess of 1.25", eventually reaching 1.5"/15 minutes by 22-23z
time frame.

As they mature along the front and toward the northeast, some left
splitters and general northeast cell motions may allow for some overlap/repeating...so spots of 2-3" totals are becoming possible
through 00z across NE KS into SE NEB. Given the recent heavy
rainfall in the area, the 0-40cm soils have become much further
saturated ranging from 50% to near 75% in far SE NEB. As such,
FFG values are reduced with 1hr values less than 1.5" across much
of NE KS, SE NEB, SW IA and N MO; with a narrow axis across
Ottawa to Ness county that saw over 5" in spots. Given the
scattered nature of the super-cells initially (before sunset)
localized flash flooding is considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4TUv9HX-IwzVxgy5IzlGLffafe0fsF8LSmJKdfQYgZTH-_6tDr1N8t9_1LVyyQU3DHZt= p-2MXNurHa_EnIBsqJVgni8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40559578 40119531 39249571 38679693 38309783=20
38009886 38419904 39229789 39689744 40549667=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 182056
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-190245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0186
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...Southern MO...Southern IL...Southern IND...Adj.
Northwestern KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 182100Z - 190245Z

SUMMARY...Continued over-running redevelopment within favorable repeating/training flow regime will continue potential for
1.5-2"/hr rates and additional 2-3" streaks in proximity to areas
currently flooding or approaching. As such, localized incidents
of new or renewed flash flooding are likely through evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and 21z surface analysis
denotes the main push of the squall line and stronger
thunderstorms from the Lower Peninsula of MI across NW OH into far
SE IND before the boundary orients more parallel to the deeper
steering flow aloft and acts more of an outflow boundary and
isentropic ascent surface from around KBAK, IND across IL passing
KLWV to KMVN before passing KFAM, TBN across S MO and fading to
the mean environment just north of KFSK in E KS. South of which
broad south to southwesterly flow with unseasonably high (ten-year
climo maximum, per CIRA LPW) low level moisture with Tds in the
upper 60s to low 70s along the length. CIRA LPW notes that the
surface to 850mb layer is very broad back into the central Plains,
but the keep to the higher moisture flux occurs with the core of
the 850-700 and 700-500mb layers over eastern AR through southern
IL resulting in total PWats at or just above 2" across S IL with
1.75" extending back through the Ozark plateau.

While GOES-E WV suite shows the main shortwave/vorticity center
exiting across the central Great Lakes (aiding forward propagating
squall line across OH), there does remain favorable divergence
aloft within the right entrance of the jet across N MO into a 90
kt speed max across WI; which continues to drive the broad and
generally confluent LLJ to maximize convergence along the upwind
edge of the outflow boundary. RAP analysis still shows a source
of 1500-2000 J/kg across the Ozark Plateau into S IL; though with
some capping remaining. The convergence along the isentropic
surface still aids scattered convective initiation and maintenance
from south-central MO. This will continue to develop in the
favorable ascent regime and with ample deep layer moisture should
remain fairly effective with 1.75"/hr rates occasionally
increasing to 2" with strongest updrafts.=20

As noted above, the deep layer steering flow remains parallel to
the ascent plane and only subtly south of the earlier axis of
convective activity. The overlap with the saturated/actively
flooding areas of southern MO into S IL and SW IND, have a solid
potential of renewing localized flash flooding through the evening
as the core of the warm conveyor belt and mid to upper-level
forcing shift eastward. Streaks of additional 2-3" totals
(isolated locally 4" psbl) may further expand the risk of inducing
new incidents of flash flooding further south of the initial axis
as well. This may also affect some flash flood prone urban
centers along the Ohio River as well, if cold pool/outflow
generation is stronger than currently forecast...so have included
portions of NW KY and extended the MPD, though the band is more
likely to remain north.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ziynu1zP-SbFbJeBhzuOm8b99ld3T41fgdEgBimPymBpylSD-WI_iRpWyhKys-tLEkL= Ec09Rw21XThQARnG1TaKJSU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39918552 39138483 38298507 37758607 37238839=20
37059076 37249252 37589377 38139360 39039122=20
39388880 39748743=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 182302
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0187
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...Southwest IA...Southeast NEB...Northwest
MO...Central & Northeast KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 182300Z - 190500Z

SUMMARY...Strong moisture flux convergence will help to spur
upscale growth from individual supercells to larger clusters with
increasing rainfall potential and coverage. Rates of 2"/hr+ and
localized totals of 2-4" (isolated 5"), especially across areas
recently saturated are likely to result in increasing incidents of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...22z surface analysis and RADAR mosaic have changed
very little over the last few hours though the dryline has surged
out of the OK/TX panhandles and helped concentrate southerly moist
flux to expand convective initiation well into south-central KS.=20
Main clusters of supercells have are at bit more progressive out
of southeast NEB with some eastward turning and increasing
coverage and has started to move out of MPD 185 area of concern
into SW IA and far NW MO. Additionally, the remainder of the
cold front from the northern inflection E of Lincoln, NEB and
secondary low near Salina, KS has filled in with broadening
up/downdrafts; as such total PWats have increased along the cold
front as the total column moistens with this increasing coverage.=20
Tds in the 70s and sub-boundary layer LPW values near 1" along
with 20-30kts of southerly flow continue to provide strong
moisture flux to encourage increasing rainfall efficiency over the
next few hours.

GOES-E WV shows the upper level jet streak is currently rounding
the base of the negative tilt up-level trof over the Northern
Plains and as a result, upper level divergence pattern will
further increase over the next few hours within strengthening DPVA
and right entrance ascent patterns across the frontal zone. This
should support further upscale growth of the cells toward clusters
as we near sunset. Cold pool generation, right-turning
supercells, should support further storm-scale interaction for
more eastward propagation allowing some increased short-term
training/repeating (as noted with clusters in NW MO already). As
such localized streaks of 2-4" totals will become more likely.

Across the MPD area a broadening/divergent of the 500-1000
thickness fields suggests east to southeast forward propagation
with time as well; increasing orthogonal flanking line
intersection to expand back-building potential. This
slowing/turning could be the greatest further south along the
upstream edge near the nose of the dryline/cold front where
steering flow is just a tad weaker overall aloft and support
longer residency times. Of course, south-central KS will require
this longer residency given the area has missed out on the
complexes/heavy rainfall over the weekend.=20

While severe/tornadic hazards remain the primary concern
currently, this will transition toward flash flooding and given
the majority of the area (north of 38.5N latitude) has FFG values
at or below the hourly expected rates (1-1.75"/hr) and generally
less than 2.5"/3hrs. As such, incidents of flash flooding will
become more likely and with greater overall coverage. Hi-Res CAMs
including the WoFS/HRRR continue to suggest very intense
sub-hourly totals (1.5"/15 minutes per HRRR) and isolated totals
of 5".=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_k5xgZhLf7L-8NSAQvbjntdQ-T2kymdmVNQgK1iHUxefJgzd01xOQfhfC0sU7QRxPWKj= oQ_Km8qG3G4MUsdaJdSyab0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41899371 41709307 41259253 40579249 40039284=20
39029379 38049551 37489790 37969841 38759779=20
40729682 41509594 41829502=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190502
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-191000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0188
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...northeastern OK into southeastern KS,
southwestern/central MO and northwestern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190457Z - 191000Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible through 10Z from northeastern OK into
southeastern KS, southwestern to central MO, and perhaps far
northwestern AR. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected, but
values may locally exceed 2 inches.

Discussion...04Z surface observations showed a cold front
extending from northeastern KS into northwestern OK and the
northern TX Panhandle, preceded by a line of thunderstorms which
arced from central MO into southeastern KS. An outflow boundary
was located at the leading edge of the thunderstorms with a faster
southeast motion over MO as compared to KS, allowing convective
line orientation to match that of the mean steering flow from the
WSW, supporting training and hourly rain of 1 to 2+ inches. 04Z
SPC mesoanalysis data showed 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in central MO,
increasing to as much as 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in north-central OK,
west of I-35, out ahead of the outflow boundary.

A strong southerly low level jet was observed over central OK (65
kt at 850 mb VAD wind plots from KTLX and KINX), veering and
weakening slightly into MO. This orientation will favor the best
angle (closest to orthogonal) into the southward sagging boundary
over OK where continued convective development is likely as the
front/outflow move south over the next few hours. The convective
line orientation will support WNW to ENE training at times with 1
to 2+ in/hr rainfall and possible flash flooding from an
additional 2 to 4+ inches through 09Z. Flash flood potential will
be increased should training overlap with urban locations or
lowered flash flood guidance due to heavy rain over the past 24
hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8v38Pb97uNhb3tglFBsnMhOOeYQ3jUBEHeJ3oyqH4BhmH5-qkqPHeGpRotGvamrnTi-D= mRp7SwVKYmhaEwVc6tg8Lpo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38989302 38819179 37939125 37089184 36359389=20
35899567 35629673 35779761 36699814 37629629=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191409
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-191930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0190
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1008 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas into
Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191407Z - 191930Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding possible over southeast Oklahoma
into northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas through the early
afternoon. Slowing progression of organized thunderstorms should
allow hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with up to 4 inches
possible in three hours over this previously parched area.

Discussion...Prefrontal organized activity over southeast OK is
oriented parallel to the southwesterly low level flow. This has
caused a slowing to progression and longer duration of heavy rain
over east-central OK. Continued new development merging in with
this line will allow a flash flood threat to shift to northeast TX
through midday. MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg and PW of 1.6 inches will
maintain rapid development and heavy rainfall rates of 2 to
possibly 3 inches per hour. This area has been dry for the past
week, so flash flood guidance is quite high. Flash flooding should
be restricted to the areas with the highest rainfall and in
urbanized areas that get at least a few inches. Recent RRFS runs
have been heavier than the HRRR which seem reasonble as the HRRRs
have been underdoing current activity. Areas ahead of the cold
front will continue to be monitored given the unstable and moist
environment.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9xGuIJ2sMD90LaTgorzLktrKt6RVD1OvJZUQlQ2LZ3QMW6ZLHSY1HiM57fhH0FwvvcMQ= J3do1pGPsLfu2EoXT0jejaQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35429542 35409467 35079390 34609344 33679353=20
32479558 32549776 33609832 34629744 35189636=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191318
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-191830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0189
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191317Z - 191830Z

Summary...Scattered instances of flash flooding likely, with
possible localized considerable impact, over the Ozarks rest of
the morning. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected to
continue with 3 to 4 inches possible in three hours.

Discussion...A cold front continues to push southeast toward the
ozarks with prefrontal organized activity still with two distinct
areas currently over northern AR and over eastern OK. The junction
of these two MCSs caused 2-5" rainfall near the OK/MO border early
this morning with rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr still occurring over
southwest MO and northern AR. An MCV is likely to develop in the
left bookend from the OK MCS that generally works its way east
along the MO/AR border rest of the morning. SWly low level flow is
parallel to the outflow from eastern OK which should allow for an
additional round of heavy rainfall. This area is quite dry with
high flash flood guidance, but the Ozarks are a known flash flood
prone area with the terrain and high runoff, so there are concerns
for considerable impacts from 2-4" in a few hours.

1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.8" PW with SWly flow of 20-25kt is
sufficient to support repeating heavy thunderstorms along over
much of the Ozarks rest of this morning. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs
appear to be under analyzing the left bookend/MCV development
risk. Those models place greater QPF focus over southeastern OK
where activity is currently progressive.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9p7M17PwHANKTj4SqP95rmq8I3uH44ydydOuRRCmXMKTbHDF8N_9un3S5Eb-JGq8UVIP= DDi480Aqeu3o705JM5j-9E0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36919319 36699203 36449141 35449183 35079313=20
35239454 35969486 36529458 36899422=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191750
FFGMPD
TXZ000-192330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0191
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Texas and Concho Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191748Z - 192330Z

Summary...Additional instances of isolated flash flooding possible
over northwest Texas/the Concho Valley into Central Texas through
the afternoon. Thunderstorms developing along/just behind a cold
front should continue to produce hourly rainfall of 1 to 2.5
inches with up to 4 inches possible in three hours over this
previously parched area.

Discussion...Frontal activity has rapidly redeveloped along/behind
a cold front near San Angelo. Earlier activity west of Abilene
became stationary as low level flow fed it, allowing 3-4 inch
maxima. The newer activity is more scattered in nature, but given
the abundant instability (MLCAPE of 3500 J/kg) and moisture
pooling along the front (1.4 to 1.6 inch PW from west to east in
the drawn threat area) should continue to rapidly develop and
could congeal into a more organized cluster in the lower shear
environment (20-25kt effective shear).=20

The HRRR continues to struggle with convection today with
difficulty maintaining this central/NW Texas activity while the
RRFS has a better handle on reality and seems reasonable with
scattered output of 1.5 to 4 inches through 00Z across central and
western portions of the drawn threat area.

All of southern Plains have been dry for the past week which may
allow increased runoff depending on the local soil type. Flash
flood guidance is high, generally 2.5 inches per hour, so the
flash flood risk should remain isolated through the afternoon.
Activity should continue to shift south with the cold front, so
followup discussions should be south of this area.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9PuE01FVqLsWcYrZKj-3Sno7EK4KS0V6esu-LmVasF3gtUITxSn883ddFDcg9iOhI5wo= FIJoNaGc1EdtBlFkLupiYf4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32899797 32599726 31739728 31009795 30739923=20
30600018 30800175 31470179 31830151 31910036=20
32279940 32629863=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191943
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-200141-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0192
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...north/northeast Texas, southwestern Arkansas,
northern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191941Z - 200141Z

Summary...A slow-moving complex of thunderstorms will continue to
produce local areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates. Isolated flash
flood issues are possible -- especially in low-lying and urban
areas -- through 0130Z/830p central.

Discussion...A mature, linear convective complex was making slow
southward movement across north/northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex
region over the past hour. The slow movement was occurring due to
weak steering flow aloft, slow propagation and expansion of a cold
pool upstream of convection, and continued, renewed updrafts along
the leading edge of the gust front. The airmass downstream of the
complex was strongly unstable (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and weakly
inhibited (negligible cap). These factors, along with the
presence of a weak mid-level wave over east Texas, should continue
to support scattered convection along and ahead of the complex for
the next several hours.

Slow movement and propagation has led to areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr
rain rates at times, with isolated 2 inch/hr spots near the most
persistent convection. This is generally lower that FFG
thresholds areawide, suggesting that any flash flood threat should
be tied to sensitive/urban terrain and mostly isolated in nature.=20
Occasional cell mergers should result in brief local peaks in rain
rates - especially with continued heating and ascent from the
mid-level wave near the region. Convection should reach the I-20
corridor in northeast Texas/north Louisiana over the next 2-4
hours (2130-2330Z).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ZAPFXnApdZj3yMlqvhhFcxkPa9cb9xwebc8N5Na5H78oEIPaHL-l6yDCZshhF3Guwzh= gGVamI0QoX0NCvIdA6kdbqU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35059191 33339167 32279193 31719240 30909412=20
30699712 32089801 33139811 33669680 33679670=20
34009564 34329428 34959291=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192332
FFGMPD
TXZ000-200530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0193
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of west and central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192330Z - 200530Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms continue to produce high rain
rates - locally exceeding 2 inches/hr at times. Flash flooding is
likely on at least a localized basis.

Discussion...In the last half hour, an east-west oriented band of
cellular convection has intensified rapidly along an axis from
near Big Lake, TX east to near Llano, with other scattered
convection northeast of that axis (west of Waco) and also just
north of the Big Bend area. These storms were focusing along a
very slow-moving cold front in that vicinity. Furthermore, very
strong mid-level lapse rates (exceeding 8C/km) and near 70F
dewpoints were contributing to 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, further
supporting strong updrafts. Weak steering flow was evident (only
20 knots or so at 500mb), enabling convection to exhibit slow and
at times erratic storm motions. Moisture/instability profiles
were supporting local 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates that were
approaching FFG.

Overall increasing convective trends are likely to continue amid a
subtle increase in low-level flow into the aforementioned front
through the evening hours. Slow/erratic storm motions are likely
to continue with this activity, though upscale growth into a
convective complex appears probable as cold pools mature and
merge. Models hint at additional convection emanating from
northern Mexican higher terrain that may also organize and merge
with pre-existing convection across the discussion area and pose a
flash flood risk. Areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates are likely to
continue on at least a localized basis, posing a flash flood
threat especially in sensitive locales. 5 inch totals are also
possible. This threat is likely to continue through 05Z/midnight
central time, and a gradual eastward and/or southeastward shift in
flash flood potential should materialize, though this evolution is
likely highly dependent on how quickly storms can grow upscale
during the evening. Locally significant impacts are possible in sensitive/flood-prone areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5BnUTs18pNt79v1mrxFp1RI9sJob9cGID-yuhkGXdQhZExVWaWBLtEObLxJzhPJ7HSxo= 0ybwYKM-wB9jz9wB3vZCJJQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32169913 32029761 31589676 31199632 30409619=20
29599647 28919807 28499958 28340015 29080082=20
29660173 29460284 29830317 30790276 31910120=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192355
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200353-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0194
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
754 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...southern Indiana, southwestern Ohio, northern
Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192353Z - 200353Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms were exhibiting localized
training, with rates increasing to about 1 inch/hr on a localized
basis. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were migrating eastward at a
decent pace across the discussion area this afternoon (~30 knots).
Storms in Ohio were organized into forward-propagating bands,
though upstream areas over Indiana into southwestern Ohio were
exhibiting slightly more favorable orientation for local training.
The convective orientation was favoring areas 1 inch/hr rain
rates on an isolated/spotty basis across the region, which was
approaching rather low FFG thresholds across the region due to wet
soils from prior rainfall the past few days.

Current trends suggest that an isolated flash flood risk will
exist for at least another couple hours. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
values and 1.9 inch PW values should sustain thunderstorms with
efficient rainfall rates at times through sunset. Thereafter, the
combination of surface cooling, convective overturning, and an
approaching front from the west should lead in a downtick in
convective coverage and attendant flash flood potential. Peak
risk will exist from now through around 03Z/11p eastern or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Xq3kNuwUw8o0r4ib0YG7-HzIp87oQ6zkIH3E170SVZlDdZOcThaeQRxDGk7Pch8VxLH= c9LukOjbCkNkimrj4qU6JoQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40188453 40048307 39338280 38688362 38318491=20
38128631 38118760 38638758 39088725 39628635=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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