ACUS11 KWNS 172225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172225=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-180030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Idaho and southwest into
central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 172225Z - 180030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusty winds will
continue to be possible through the evening. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across the
region this afternoon in response to increasing large-scale ascent
ahead of modest short-wave trough moving through the broader
westerlies.=20

The area is only being glanced by the stronger flow aloft keeping effective-layer shear modest (20-30 knots). Additionally, meager
mid-level lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the 50Fs has resulted
in only about 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE at best. However, steep
low-level lapse rates may support a dry downburst or two capable of
producing gusty outflows.=20

A watch is currently not expected.

..Marsh/Smith.. 08/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8z927BSfhgGMjS-V8mSo-mpbrsjAedZKxrI3_CReTXTx4IbYhwx5BTxxn58MLp7B1bXYBfExf= t-xU7nkdtF-7T0IO_A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON 44661413 45821326 47161129 47470963 46630863 45410870
45320976 44821095 44281176 43941260 43821345 43941413
44661413=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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