ACUS11 KWNS 052014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052014=20
MTZ000-052215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...

Valid 052014Z - 052215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds is increasing across
southeast Montana downstream of an organized MCS.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a cluster of thunderstorms has
grown upscale into an organized MCS with a history of producing
severe winds (a 55 knot gust was recently noted at KBIL/Billings,
MT). Ahead of the MCS, temperatures continue to warm into the upper
70s and low 80s within a diffuse baroclinic zone extending from
southeast MT to the southeast into the Black Hills region. Winds
within this baroclinic zone are slowly veering to the southeast,
resulting in a modest increase in low-level moisture transport
immediately downstream of the approaching squall line. Consequently,
buoyancy values have begun to increase across southeast MT with
recent RAP/mesoanalysis estimates showing MLCAPE values of around
1000 J/kg. The recent development of shallow cumulus within this
region supports this idea of increasing moisture content/buoyancy
ahead of the squall line. As such, the expectation is that this line
may see further intensification in the coming hours, and will
continue to pose a severe wind threat downstream with localized
gusts upwards of 60-80 mph possible. With time, a rightward turn to
the southeast is possible as the line approaches the eastern MT
border and storm propagation becomes increasingly influenced by the
diffuse baroclinic zone.

..Moore.. 07/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5e4Qwq29qMkJnmsmStzvweUIQIkOLbw5Vr4WuMi7ujrhALEr-iTjoixjs1_pZSlUGYyXMcdc0= hvs5x9anJJbwZNS3uU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 45310832 45610830 45850840 46080848 46240862 46320857
46760664 46840578 46830488 46720449 46610433 46220418
45820417 45450425 45220440 45110468 45040516 45120591
45250680 45280743 45250786 45180816 45240831 45310832=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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