ACUS11 KWNS 051905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051904=20
KSZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-052100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1567
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...Far southeast Wyoming into Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051904Z - 052100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms developing within the central
Rockies/High Plains will pose a severe wind threat through the
afternoon and evening hours. Watch issuance is possible as the
severe threat becomes more widespread later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Steady growth of agitated cumulus is noted across
central to northern CO in recent GOES imagery with several deeper
towers beginning to produce steady lightning flashes within the
higher terrain. This comes as diurnally-driven orographic ascent
increases within a weakly capped environment, and temperatures in
the High Plains begin to approach convective temperatures for
surface-based parcels. Any lingering inhibition should be removed
within the next 1-2 hours as temperatures continue to warm into the
upper 70s and low/mid 80s, resulting in an increase in thunderstorm
coverage within the higher terrain and across central to eastern CO.

Through mid-afternoon, thunderstorms spreading into - or developing
across - the High Plains will begin intensifying within an
environment characterized by modest buoyancy (MLCAPE around 250-500
J/kg) but deep, well-mixed boundary layers and 20-30 knots of
effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment will
promote strong downdraft accelerations, increasing cold pool
production/depth, and eventual upscale growth into one or more
organized clusters. While sporadic severe gusts and large hail (most
likely near/below 1.25 inch in diameter) will be possible with
initially semi-discrete cells, a more robust wind threat may
materialize later this afternoon as organized clusters/line segments
emerge across far southeast WY into central/eastern CO. Latest CAM
solutions continue to hint that gusts between 60-70 mph will be
possible with such clusters/lines. Convective trends will be
monitored, and watch issuance is possible if/when this scenario
becomes more apparent.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7sNUbc3sbu5nVhhRu9DDp2dtXpsMcVW-9B2R1iSA_mMEy98Iodrpac1sghBD1qJt7IM0gA5vn= FjoZQoBrx0B6VNSD3o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40280330 39710303 39290249 38920203 38480178 38120181
37940222 38000306 38280384 38550446 38780498 39090532
40890568 41210561 41530542 41730509 41770465 41620423
41270376 40280330=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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