• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0495

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 19 20:30:33 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 192030
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192029=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-192230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0495
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

    Areas affected...North Central into East Central Georgia to Southern
    South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 192029Z - 192230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected to
    develop through this afternoon. Marginally severe hail and gusts up
    to 50 to 60 mph expected with the strongest thunderstorms.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate weak confluence
    from west central South Carolina through north central Georgia.
    Recent visible satellite imagery has shown an increase in cumulus
    coverage along this boundary and thunderstorm initiation south of
    Athens. Some agitated cumulus has also developed along a sea breeze
    near the southern South Carolina coastline.

    Surface buoyancy across east central Georgia has slowly increased
    late this afternoon with sufficient heating. Moderate MLCAPE around
    1500 J/kg is present along with effective shear magnitudes near
    30-35 kt. Given the aforementioned environment, some storm
    organization will be possible over the next 1-2 hours with a threat
    of hail up to 1 inch in diameter. In addition, low level lapse
    rates/downdraft CAPE near 1000 J/kg will support damaging wind gust
    potential with any more persistent cores that manage to develop.
    However, given the weakly forced environment, severe storm coverage
    is expected to remain fairly limited.

    ..Barnes/Moore/Smith.. 04/19/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!85K5bHlJ03G2SjB_U-GiVQNC7y3C0gBTK4rowHKCMYxHniv6UW1EglIR3wWv5hmJljsAtLoeE= Pqz48eqpR-Rgd8sLaU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 32588395 33098448 33628450 34018387 34288316 34318188
    33998069 33518008 32847974 32737984 32658002 32548019
    32478027 32468043 32338046 32248052 32208057 32178066
    32158070 32158070 32368232 32588395=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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