ACUS11 KWNS 090400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090359=20
TXZ000-090630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Areas affected...TX Permian Basin vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 090359Z - 090630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development will be possible
overnight, with a threat of large hail.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to stream northwestward
late this evening into portions of the TX Permian Basin region.
Meanwhile, WV and IR imagery suggests that ascent related to the
deep upper-level trough over the Southwest is beginning to
overspread the region. While timing remains uncertain, storm
development will become increasingly likely overnight, especially
near/north of a southward-moving cold front. Steep midlevel lapse
rates, MUCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range, and
effective shear of 40+ kts will support elevated supercell
potential, with an attendant threat of large hail in the 1.5 - 2
inch diameter range.=20

Severe-storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain overnight and could
remain rather isolated, but eventual watch issuance is possible
given the potential for elevated supercells.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_X9XNTdF8W9wEj8opaW-DaGKmQ0xZS_elGxPJQko16FxG2SxW86oCBqTzUeRfIv4hMXGDRs03= fACkmTFP2-anEB049g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32360300 32700297 33040291 33200177 33110124 32510060
31860073 31130112 30860168 30770276 31710295 32360300=20


=3D =3D =3D
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