ACUS11 KWNS 022254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022253=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-030200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024
Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Central Alabama...Northwest
Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20
Valid 022253Z - 030200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will become more numerous through the
evening, with an increasing risk of tornadoes and damaging winds.=20
Watch issuance is expected in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...A very warm/moist and moderately unstable and only
weakly capped air mass is in place this evening across much of
southern MS/AL, with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. Recent
satellite/radar loops show isolate showers and thunderstorms
beginning to develop in this region. Models have been consistent in
the development of a strong southerly low-level jet by mid-evening,
resulting in northward advection of the better moisture and
strengthening low-level wind fields. Forecast soundings suggest
rapid enlargement of hodographs after dark, with parameters becoming
quite favorable for supercells capable of tornadoes and damaging
winds. A tornado watch will be needed for parts of this region in
the next couple of hours as more robust convective initiation
begins.
..Hart/Guyer.. 04/02/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!99YqOWIvd-_gA8WLt7CsrVAXVNiqwlsEEohT1TXRRlBp8O_1NlzWAlMUHpRbL8RTernrehzuR= 2JyW7qKUM7HImDaQsw$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 32258913 33668809 34968490 33758421 32548536 31578849
32258913=20
=3D =3D =3D
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