ACUS11 KWNS 221822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221821=20
FLZ000-222045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Areas affected...far southern FL toward the Keys
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 221821Z - 222045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms from far southern Florida toward the Keys may
remain capable of producing waterspouts, with an eventual
possibility of a brief tornado.
DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage near an east-west
oriented boundary situation over far southern FL. North of this
boundary, surface winds remain out of the east/northeast, and
through a relatively deep layer. VWPs near Miami show around 2 km
depth of east to southeasterly winds. Farther south toward Key West,
winds have veered to southerly, and this area is also within the
instability plume with MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg.=20
Although instability is less over land, enhanced vertical vorticity
exists along the boundary, and the gradual increase in theta-e, as
well as increasing flow aloft, could yield a more favorable
environment for a brief tornado with time.
VWPs and objective analysis generally indicate 0-1 SRH below 100
m2/s2, however, these values appear to be slowly increasing. In
addition, as the cluster of storms persists, further shear
enhancement could occur due to convectively induced pressure falls.
At this time, a watch does not appear necessary due to the low-end
nature of the threat as well as minimal land area.
..Jewell/Hart.. 03/22/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5TG4O9OVv1yaFhFdJ8lFFkKK-89JkepCaXVQ-PqQFyXAF9GW2rECtw0AGm8FpP-hugOaUVcIq= kVGtNTBF2f23CCluB8$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 25118035 24948056 24888137 24938159 25068164 25308144
25498111 25538080 25498022 25358019 25118035=20
=3D =3D =3D
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