ACUS11 KWNS 142050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142049=20
NYZ000-150045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024
Areas affected...Upstate New York
Concerning...Heavy snow=20
Valid 142049Z - 150045Z
SUMMARY...The onset of heavy snowfall rates up to (and possibly
exceeding) two inches per hour is anticipated in the next few hours
for the northeast shore of Lake Ontario. A heavy lake-effect snow
band emanating off Lake Erie should continue into the early evening.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends over the past hour have shown the development of a more persistent lake-effect snow band in the
Watertown, NY vicinity. Additionally, low-level confluence over Lake
Ontario may be increasing based on trends in the shallow convective
streaks in GOES visible imagery. High-res model guidance has hinted
in the development of a more persistent lake-effect band beginning
during the 21-00 UTC period over the past several model runs. The aforementioned observed trends lend confidence to this forecast and
suggest the onset may be closer to the 21-23 UTC period. Upstream,
lake-effect bands coming off of Lake Erie have resulted in snowfall
rates up to 2 in/hour. Given similar thermodynamic profiles aloft
and warmer water temperatures (6 C vs. 4 C), similar, if not higher,
snowfall rates are expected.=20
To the southwest, a persistent lake-effect band to the south of
Buffalo, NY is expected to persist into the evening hours. As
mentioned, snowfall rates up to 2 in/hour have been observed, and
strong low-level confluence over Lake Erie is noted in recent
surface observations. Guidance hints at a gradual weakening of this
band after the 00 UTC time frame.
..Moore.. 01/14/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9IrSE4OuW8G_-nSnCt3gJvHDc7E5VIc4cp4LgiOEZTl3yGuA7CNujlqb2G8CXbqivjubBwoF5= bdw_G3_uRmsB-aN8tw$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43837636 44047626 44267527 44277493 44157463 44057453
43777450 43587463 43497483 43557597 43627624 43737632
43837636=20
=3D =3D =3D
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