ACUS11 KWNS 120933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120933=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-121100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024
Areas affected...Northern LA...Southeast AR...Southwest
TN...central/northern MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20
Valid 120933Z - 121100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 4 AM CST, as storms
begin to approach the region from the west.
DISCUSSION...As a powerful mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across the southern Plains early this morning, ongoing convection
near the ArkLaTex region is expected to accelerate eastward. A
surface cyclone is expected to consolidate later this morning near
the ArkLaMiss area and then rapidly intensify as a 100+ kt midlevel
jet impinges upon the region. As this occurs, 60s F dewpoints are
expected to advance as far as northern MS, accompanied by an
increase in MLCAPE to near 500 J/kg in areas that are currently
rather cool/stable.=20
While there will be some tendency for convection to eventually
outpace low-level moisture return, organized convection is expected
to reach parts of northern/central MS and perhaps southwest TN later
this morning. Low-level flow/shear is already strong (as noted on
regional VWPs), and a further increase is expected with time as 1-3
km AGL flow strengthens into the 60-80 kt range. The fast-moving
convective line within this favorable kinematic environment will
pose a threat for severe gusts (potentially in excess of 65 kt) and
some potential for line-embedded tornadoes.=20=20
With upstream WW 9 scheduled to expire at 4 AM CST, new tornado
watch issuance across the region is likely soon.
..Dean/Edwards.. 01/12/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-WBkmeaP2f9Kfg9p6JL39KyzpAoMf87qP_riykQ549oM7Pb2h1bePGoP6gf_LX0l8vrO6UH7e= N1wDK7csFLqxLJcdOk$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 31979310 33799143 34909073 35199038 35308906 35078833
34808823 34278826 33778834 32588856 32258973 32109217
31979310=20
=3D =3D =3D
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