ACUS11 KWNS 171706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171706=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-172100-
Mesoscale Discussion 2333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023
Areas affected...parts of the coastal Carolinas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 171706Z - 172100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A conditional risk of brief tornadoes or damaging gusts is
forecast today, from the South Carolina upper coast toward coastal
North Carolina. The risk is conditional on air mass recovery, and a
watch may be considered.
DISCUSSION...A surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward off
the SC Coast today, along an existing baroclinic zone which is
currently well offshore. Surface observations show cool air over
land with gusty northeast winds, and this will likely maintain a
decoupled boundary layer which should mitigate tornado and damaging
gust potential in the near term.
Later today, gradual warming is expected as the warm front shifts
north along the coast. As winds veer to east and then southeast, a
warmer and more unstable air mass will then support a risk of brief
tornadoes and damaging gusts, as shear will remain strong along the
warm front. Observational trends will continue to be monitored
closely, along with satellite imagery, to ascertain when a potential
watch may be needed later today.
..Jewell/Goss.. 12/17/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!84XN4fO0wX19AzBXszlT5Zy6XXDkV2HIZE6WE5QsRIerUW00kQ-bQgzZQaX_glxEJAHckIkSN= x1SfyTTGVUZsi2ufp4$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...
LAT...LON 33227967 33697946 34387880 34757814 34987730 34907648
34607644 34627687 34437741 34157776 33787792 33847815
33767866 33447904 33227909 32987932 32807958 32907973
33227967=20
=3D =3D =3D
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