ACUS11 KWNS 092045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092045=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-092215-
Mesoscale Discussion 2306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023
Areas affected...Northern AL into middle/eastern TN and eastern KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 092045Z - 092215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase as storms approach from
the west. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 3-4 PM CST.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells is currently ongoing from
southern KY into western TN and northwest MS. While instability is
currently quite limited from eastern TN into southeast KY, some moistening/destabilization is expected with time through late
afternoon, aided by rather strong southwesterly low-level flow above
the surface. With longer-lived supercells already ongoing, organized
convection may spread eastward even as the environment becomes
somewhat less favorable, with a continued threat of a couple
tornadoes and locally damaging wind.=20
In addition to ongoing convection, additional development is
possible ahead of the approaching cold front across parts of
northern AL into southern middle TN, as a low-level warm advection
regime gradually increases into this evening. Supercells may evolve
out of this activity as well, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards.=20
Given the concerns described above, Tornado Watch issuance is likely
for parts of the region by 3-4 PM CST.
..Dean/Guyer.. 12/09/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8SQaFsUxloSa6JXrXGT_gQpdLVC4lcmbd6zf2TPcTdhhuUnTU_RchIgHtJm7KeGObsbHuCdQu= k1mA1ugJFMVLit0dew$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...
LAT...LON 34468794 34838770 35668610 37558491 37698475 37728440
37548402 37438395 37148407 36618437 35838485 34948574
34358634 34468794=20
=3D =3D =3D
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