ACUS11 KWNS 212326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212326=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-220200-
Mesoscale Discussion 2283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023
Areas affected...far southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia...Florida
Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 212326Z - 220200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The risk for an isolated, brief tornado may persist for
another 2 hours or so, from parts of southeast Alabama into
southwest Georgia. Given the short time frame and areal extent of
the threat, a watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell is currently ongoing over far
southeast AL, just ahead of a line of storms along a cold front. The
air mass ahead of the front is reasonably unstable to support severe
storms given the shear, but overall large-scale support is dwindling
as the low-level jet shifts northeastward.
In the short term, sufficient instability of 500-1000 J/kg and 0-1
SRH of 150-180 m2/s2 may sustain a localized supercell/tornado risk,
with ongoing activity, with a relatively limited threat corridor
along and east of the cold front.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 11/21/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-9VwEBOgEzvpYAOU-aFW6Z4WPxE01NVeHpDw-6Hd7z1ztaZP7hEdwxI-_iqnKO1T_BOqEKFLG= bM4pLrAIUy_tbcc21I$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 30998608 31468575 32018514 32438451 32548387 32298346
31828348 31098405 30758473 30668533 30798587 30788604
30998608=20
=3D =3D =3D
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