ACUS01 KWNS 101442
SWODY1
SPC AC 101441

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0841 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf
coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic
Peninsula of Washington.

...Synopsis...
A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may
focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period. Any
convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the
surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for
charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Farther west,
isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across
southwest NM and far west TX. Weak elevated CAPE and ascent
downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a
few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the
threat ends during the afternoon.

Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the
last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula
as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver
by 08-12z. Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the
WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development
is expected today.

..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030124
SWODY1
SPC AC 030124

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS/THE BIG COUNTRY SOUTH TO THE CONCHO VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to isolated severe storms will continue this
evening, primarily from western North Texas into the Concho
Valley/central Texas area.

...Parts of northern and central Texas...
While isolated strong storms -- a few possibly/occasionally reaching
severe levels -- remain possible from Oklahoma northeastward to the
southern Upper Great Lakes region in the vicinity of the cold
frontal zone, the greatest severe risk will remain across portions
of northern and central Texas.

A handful of severe/supercell storms are ongoing from western North
Texas south to the Concho Valley, with a warm sector bounded by a
cold front on the northern fringe, and a dryline on the west. While
noted veering of the flow with height exists across this area,
magnitude of the flow remains somewhat limited. Still, given the
strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE near 3500 J/kg), the
CAPE/shear combination will continue to favor organized/supercell
storms over the next few hours. Eventually, some upscale growth of
convection may occur, though an only modest low-level jet expected
to evolve this evening may preclude development of a well-organized
MCS. In the meantime, very large hail and locally damaging wind
gusts remain possible, along with a tornado or two.

..Goss.. 05/03/2024





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