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IPv6 in 2023
By Michiel van der Vlist, 2:280/5555
Another year has passed. When we compare the statistics as published
by the end of 2022 with those of today, we see that for the first
time he growth of IPv6 in Fidonet has stopped. Not just stopped but
the number of nodes has decreased from 108 to 98 nodes.
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0 _|__.___________________________________________________________
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
I have no simple explanation for the drop. It is probably a combina-
tion of factors. The general decline of Fidonet is almost certainly
one of them. Whatever the reasons, it is not what I had expected.
The number of nodes carrying the INO4 flag remained stable at 5. So
the vast majority of Fidonet nodes still supports IPv4 and apparently
still has a public IPv4 address. This is also against my expectation
that the scarcety of IPv4 addresses would have had more impact on
Fidonet by now. In the very long run we will of course see that when
the InterNet moves towards IPv6 only that the number of INO4 flags
rises. When we reach the point that it becomes a majority, we may
consider dropping the INO4 flag and introduce an IPV4 flag instead.
But that is still far in the future and I (or Fidonet) may not live
to see it.
Outside of Fidonet IPv6 continues to grow. According to Google world-
wide IPv6 adoptation now hovers around 45%. Almost half of those
visiting Google do so via IPv6.
https://www.google.com/intl/nl/ipv6/statistics.html
Some even claim the tipping point has been reached where IPv6 is now
the norm.
https://www.sidn.nl/en/news-and-blogs/tipping-point-reached- transition-to-ipv6-enters-a-new-phase
Last year I wrote about IPv6 hoarders that sit on large blocks of IPv4
that they hope to sell at fantastic prices in the future. They may be
too late already. While the price of IPv4 has doubled from EUR 25 to
EUR 50 in 2021, in 2023 the price dropped to about EUR 35.
https://www.sidn.nl/en/news-and-blogs/are-we-past-peak-ipv4
So do not be surprised if this bubble will burst in the coming years.
Regarding my personal situation: I now have Fiber To The Home. The
company that runs the hardware is roling out their fiber network
like madness. The competition on the FTTH market is enormous and their
first priority seems to be to plant their flag in as many households
in The Netherlands as possible in order to be ahead of the competi-
tion. IPv6 was not on their list of priorities, the network was rolled
out as IPv4 only. Until about three or four month ago when they ran
out of IPv4...
Then two things happened: one: they started putting their customers
on CGNAT and two: they finally started rolling out IPv6.
In that order...
The switch to CGNAT was not announced in advance. Groups of customers
had their public IPv4 address changed overnight to an address in the
RFC 6598 range. (100.64.0.0/10) While the vast majority of customers
never even noticed, those that had port forwarding active were "not
amused" to say the least. Fortunately they offered a way to reverse
the process for those that wanted to keep a public IPv4 address but
the damage was done. One of he reasons they did not - and still do not
- informm the customers concerned in advance is that the vast majority
of customers would have no idea what it was all about and start over-
loading the help desk in panic. It was a balancing act. Later they
started excluding customers from the CGNAT pool that had a port
forward defined in the modem/router that was given to them. That
calmed down the uproar. I personally escaped the CGNAT. Possibly
because I configured a port forward minutes after the connection was
active or I was just lucky.
IMNSHO they should have rolled out IPv6 before CGNAT became unavoid-
able. But they waited until they no longer had a choice and what
happened next was predictable. In fact I predicted it years ago. They
still have to figure out the child's diseases. My FTTH connection be-
came active on September 14. IPv4 only. On October 6th, I suddenly got
IPv6. I was happy until I discovered that there was no way to open a
pinhole in the IPv6 firewall of the modem/router they had given me.
I reported this next day and the first response was that I could not
expect such an "advanced feature" in a simple modem/router. It took me
about a month to convince them that pinholing is the IPv6 way to do
what port forwarding does for IPv4 and that not supporting it is a
serious shortcoming. Finally they admitted that it is something that
should be fixed and will be fixed. But it has not been fixed at the
moment I write this and I was told there is no schedule for the fix
yet, but it certainly will not be fixed before 2024.
Fortunately I foresaw problems like this and I did not cancel my cable connection yet. So for the time being I am dual homed and my full IPv6 connectivity is still intact. Yeah, those are the problems that can be
expected when one postpones IPv6 until one runs out of options and it
has to be done in a hurry. Wait with fixing the roof untill it starts
raining and you will get wet...
Actually I think the FTTH company missed an opportunity. Instead of
rolling out the network as IPv4 only first, they should have rolled it
out as IPv6 only with IPv4 As A Service. That would have saved them at
least one step in the transition. But that probably did not go well
with their goal of rolling out the fibres as quickly as they could...
Something else: (semi) public WiFi networks. In the beginning of 2023
whenever I came across a (semi) public WiFi network I started checking
for IPv6 support. The result was disappointing. In the over two dozen
networks that I checked over the years, only TWO of them offered IPv6.
One was a camping in the East of The Netherlands and the other a venue
in the centre of The Netherlands that is often used by the Dutch com-
puter club HCC. That network is maintained by the club members... It
means we still have a long way to go to an IPv6 only world.
In order not to have to tell the same story over and over again, I
sometimes refer people to Fidonews articles I wrote in the past.
Since there seems to be no easely available searcheable archive, I
made a list of these articles. I hope I did not miss any.
My previous Fidonews articles about IPv6:
FN 26:31 Jul 2009 FidoNet and IPv6
FN 28:04 Jan 2011 FidoNet and IPv4 depletion
FN 28:07 Feb 2011 Fido and IPv6 Day
FN 28:16 Apr 2011 APNIC runs out
FN 28:20 May 2011 The IPv6 echo
FN 28:31 Aug 2011 A SECOND LIFE FOR THE LINKSYS Part 1
FN 28:32 Aug 2011 A SECOND LIFE FOR THE LINKSYS PArt 2
FN 28:45 Nov 2011 A "first"
FN 29:04 Jan 2012 World IPv6 Launch Day, 6 June 2012
FN 29:09 Feb 2012 A SECOND LIFE FOR THE LINKSYS Part 3
FN 29:38 Sep 2012 RIPE is out of IPv4 addresses.
FN 32:17 Apr 2015 IPv6 penetration in the nodelist
FN 32:26 Jun 2015 ARIN is out of IPv4 addresses.
FN 3:252 Dec 2015 IPv6 in Fidonet by the end of 2015
FN 33:02 Jan 2016 IPv6 in two thousand SIX teen
FN 33:06 Feb 2016 Another barrier broken.
FN 34:01 Jan 2017 IPv6 in 2016
FN 34:13 Mar 2017 SixXs Sunset 06-06-2017
FN 34:30 Jul 2017 TV without IPv6
FN 34:31 Jul 2017 DS-Lite emulation experiment v2.0
FN 34:37 Sep 2017 DS-Lite emulation experiment 2.0, the results
FN 34:33 Aug 2017 DS-Lite: a solution
FN 34:38 Sep 2017 DS-Lite Emulation experiment v2.1
FN 35:01 Jan 2018 IPv6 in 2017
FN 35:53 Dec 2018 IPv6 in 2018
FN 36:52 Dec 2019 IPv6 in 2019
FN 38:01 Jan 2021 IPv6 in 2020
FN 38:20 May 2021 100 IPv6 nodes
FN 39:01 Jan 2022 IPv6 in 2021
FN 40:01 Jan 2023 IPv6 in 2022
Happy IPv6 in 2024.
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A different kind of wish
Ward Dossche - 2:292/854
It is the time of wishing well, of beautiful lights, of grandchildren
with cramped stomachs because they have to go through a 'New Year's
letter', good food, warmth and "especially good health"... (at least
if you happen to live in this part of the world).
And yet ...
... and yet there are times when the wishes do not turn out as they
were desired, when you want to be together with your loved one today
but that is not possible ...
Moments when everyone assumes that everything is fine with the others,
that you can wish anything to anyone...
... while you are only interested in the "health" of that special
one who has been lying in a hospital bed for 2 months with a plethora
of tubes, drip-bags, needles, syringes, pills, potions, 'stuff',
blood samples..
And yet ...
...and yet, despite all the misery she experiences, there is so much
to be grateful for.
There is a roof over our heads, we have food when we are hungry, we
can enjoy the best medical care available, there are friends, family,
children, grandchildren... we have warmth when the cold comes, there
is safe drinking water, we have the freedom to express our opinions...
there is peace... here.
We are doing well, despite everything ...
Happy New Year ... Tine ...... Come home soon ... <3 ...
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